火灾中人员的行为及其模拟计算方法的研究

在综合分析国内外人员疏散模型和模拟软件发展现状的基础上,研究人员在火灾中的行为理论、计算机模型、模拟原理等,并介绍了目前国际上研究人员行为方面综合功能较强的Building EXODUS软件的原理和特点,最后以具体实例说明了Building EXODUS软件在人群疏散模拟分析中的具体应用.研究表明,1)在不考虑其他因素的影响下,疏散总时间与人数成正比;2)在火灾等紧急情况下,当某个出口不能通行时,可能会使大量人员在另一个出口处造成"瓶颈"现象,因此,增加备用安全出口很重要;3)疏散时间实际上是一随机变量,会因各种情况的变化而不同,如在很大程度上受人员特性(如年龄等因素)的影响,传统计算方法一般会低估疏散时间而不能作为建筑疏散设计的依据;4)利用计算机模拟软件可以对火灾中各种可能发生的情况进行评价,评价结果比传统方法更科学、可信.火灾中人员行为的研究需要从心理学和社会学角度建立人群中个人行为与社会行为的理论框架,而疏散模拟是一个由多个因素组成的复杂系统,大量人群环境的模拟需要涉及人与人、人与环境间的相互作用.     

Development of a Dynamic Aquatic Model (DynA Model): Estimating Temporal Emissions of DDT to Lake Maggiore (N. Italy)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.009 Background, Aims and Scope Most existing models used to describe the fate of chemicals in surface water and sediment generally consider a 'static scenario', in which a contaminant is discharged at a constant rate and environmental input parameters do not change during the simulation time. This approach is not suitable in environmental scenarios characterized by daily or periodic changes of several input parameters. The aim of this study is to estimate approximate emissions of DDT lo Lake Maggiore using a new surface water model, (DynA Model) that describes the fate of a chemical in a dynamic scenario. Methods The model is developed on the grounds of an existing and validated model (QWASI). A numerical solution was adopted to build the fully dynamic version of the model. Results and Discussion The model was applied to Lake Maggiore emitting DDT at a constant rate until steady-state was reached. Emissions were stopped and later sporadic 'pulse' emissions were added. This was done to calculate the amount of DDT needed to simulate concentrations close to those measured in water and sediments. This allowed the evaluation of the order of magnitude of emissions. An uncertainty analysis for sediment resuspension was also performed, given the lack of measured resuspension rates. Conclusion The model showed the time response of the Lake Maggiore system to varying emission scenarios and provided what are regarded as reasonable estimates of DDT emissions. The model demonstrated the importance of sediment-water exchange. Recommendation and Outlook In order to better calculate DDT concentrations the model should be run with different discharge scenarios to clarify the time trends of concentrations, possibly with the use of different sets of measured data (such as biota and sediment deposition/resuspension rates).     

The impact of European Regional Development Fund on separate waste collection: Evidence from Italian regions

We analyze the impact of Regulation (EC) No 1080/2006 on separate collection rate of Italian regions. We exploit longitudinal data for 20 NUTS-2 Italian regions and eighteen years (from 1996 to 2013). We identify regions which are exposed to “Convergence” objective as the treatment group and regions which are not exposed to this objective as the control group and use a Difference in differences estimation. The estimates suggest that the Regulation (EC) No 1080/2006 has not influenced the convergence process among the Italian regions. The main policy implications are discussed.     

Local survival of pied flycatcher males and females in a pollution gradient of a Cu smelter

Survival is one of the most central population measures when the effects of the pollution are studied in natural bird populations. However, only few studies have actually measured rigorous survival estimates on adult birds. In recent years there has been a methodological advance in survival analyses by mark-recapture models. We modelled local survival (including mortality and emigration) with the program MARK in a population of a small insectivorous passerine bird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), around a point source of heavy metals. The local survival of females in the polluted area was about 50% lower than in the other areas. Males, however, survived relatively well in the heavily polluted area, but showed somewhat lower survival in the moderately polluted area. Different pollution effects between two sexes might be due to pollution-related differences in reproductive effort in females and males, and/or more intensive uptake of heavy metals by laying females.     

Use of Community‐Composition Data to Predict the Fecundity and Abundance of Species

Abstract: Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co‐occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community‐composition data. Composition‐based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment‐based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above‐ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community‐composition data were the best predictors of both the site‐specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site‐specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community‐based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community‐based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES USING THE WOLLMAN-BONEM MODELS1

Alternative futures are defined to be mutually consistent alternative combinations of assumed sets of future conditions. Alternative futures are employed in conjunction with the Wollman-Bonem model to project future water use. The model solutions under different alternative futures provide an indication of the direction and relative magnitude of changes in water use, both in quantity and quality, that may result from changes in policy-influenced variables, technology, and other data. The Wollman-Bonem model is employed in this paper as a tool to illustrate the alternative futures concept. The model can best be cast as an economic model. The model solutions are not given as a set of formal projections, but as various possible water-use-over-time curves. This should aid in disspelling the erroneous idea that it is possible to make distant projections of water use as a single curve. Multiple curves suggest that water use is really a function of many variables.     

EFFECTS OF THE TOPOGRAPHIC INDEX DISTRIBUTION ON PREDICTED RUNOFF USING GRASS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of digital elevation model resolutions and contour lengths on the distribution of the topographic index, a fundamental parameter for the hydrologic model, TOPMODEL, and their influence on the predicted peak flows are investigated in this paper. A small agricultural catchment (3.38 km²) is used to determine the catchment response modeled by TOPMODEL for three rainfall events.     

MASS BALANCE MODEL ESTIMATION OF PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Mass balance models have been common tools in lake quality management for some years. However, verification for use on reservoirs, especially in the Western United States, has been seriously lacking, In this study, such a verification is attempted using data from the U.S EPA National Eutrophication Survey. Several models from the literature are compared for accuracy in application to the western reservoir data. Model standard error and correlation between estimated and observed reservoir phosphorus concentrations are the Criteria used for comparison. Standard errors am further used to calculate uncertainty of trophic state classification based on estimated phosphorus concentration. The model proposed by Dillon and Rigler (1974) proved most accurate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and standard error of 0.2, based on logarithmic transformed values. Deficiencies in the other models appear to & from coefficients fit to lake data and from inappropriate model formulation.