An improved methodology for assessing risk in aircraft operations at airports, applied to runway overruns

The paper addresses the need for models to assess risk at any particular airport, based on risk management principles used by the present risk management process, that use all available data on previous accidents. The case of runway overruns is taken as an example application, because new regulations require the provision of much longer Runway End Safety Areas than had previously been the norm. The paper presents models for overruns arising from both landings and aborted takeoffs. In each case models of overrun risk, of wreckage location and of the consequences are detailed. An example application of the models is then given in a hypothetical risk assessment.The models, though adding value to existing methods of assessing risk, are not as good as they could be, due to the lack of data on normal operations. It was therefore possible only to relate the rate of overruns to the rate of occurrence of the possible driving factors for a few factors where such comparable data on normal operations existed. It is recommended that effort be put into the collection of data to allow a more comprehensive analysis.     

雨水资源与雨水资源的评价

本文论述了雨水资源和目前世界各地雨水利用的概况,提出了家庭用水和农业用水雨水资源评价的计算方法。     

WATERSHED MODELS AND THEIR APPLICABILITY TO CONJUNCTIVE USE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Techniques employed to simulate infiltration and subsurface ground-water flow were examined for a number of available watershed models. The large number of processes that these models simulate prohibits detailed analysis of subsurface flow, due to excessive computer and data requirements. Such models emphasize surface flow and include only that portion of water lost to the subsurface and the portion returned to the stream as baseflow. Problems were examined in adopting conjunctive use models, which allow the coordinated exploitation and management of both surface and ground-water resources. The application of conjunctive use models in water resources management is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade.     

A method to create simplified versions of existing habitat suitability index (HSI) models

The habitat evaluation procedures (HEP), developed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, are widely used in the United States to determine the impacts of major construction projects on fish and wildlife habitats. HEP relies heavily on habitat suitability index (HSI) models that use measurements of important habitat characteristics to rate habitat quality for a species on a scale of 0 (unsuitable) to 1.0 (optimal). This report describes a method to simplify existing HSI models to reduce the time and expense involved in sampling habitat variables. Simplified models for three species produced HSI values within 0.2 of those predicted by the original models 90% of the time. Simplified models are particularly useful for rapid habitat inventories and evaluations, wildlife management, and impact assessments in extensive areas or with limited time and personnel.     

SIMULATION OF REGIONAL GROUND WATER FLOW IN BEDROCK,SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK-NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of steady-state three-dimensional computer simulations to determine the hydrogeologic setting of formation water in the hydrocarbon producing formations of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Recharge areas for the regional ground water flow systems in the study area are the Valley Heads Moraine and Allegheny uplands; discharge areas are Lakes Erie and Ontario to the north and the northern margin of the Appalachian basin to the south. Simulated ground water flow in all model layers moves north from the ground water divide on the Valley Heads Moraine towards Lake Erie at a rate from 10^?-⁶ to 10^?-³ ft/day. South of the divide intermediate-scale and local-scale flow systems occur in the upper 4000 feet of the stratigraphic section and the directions of ground water flow diverge towards major rivers and other topographically low areas.     

APPLICATION OF RORB MODEL TO A CATCHMENT IN SINGAPORE1

ABSTRACT: Runoff Routing model (RORB) is a general model applicable to both rural and urban catchments. The performance of the model is illustrated through its simulation of flood runoff hydrographs in an urban catchment in Singapore. The essential feature of the model is the routing of rainfall excesses on subareas through some arrangement of concentrated storage elements, which represent the distribution of temporary storage of flood runoff on the watershed. This nonlinear routing procedure of the storage elements has two common parameters, k_c and m. With the limited data available, these two parameter values were determined through calibration runs. The same set of values of k_c and m were then used in the model to determine the runoff hydrographs of five other storms selected from the rainfall events between 1979 and 1981. It was found that the simulated runoff hydrographs matched reasonably well with the recorded hydrographs.     

ESTIMATING THE WATER RESOURCE FOR A HIGH SIERRA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Competition for water, concerns for maintaining ground water quality, and compliance with legislative action require quantification of the water resource for high elevation watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. However, meager hydroclimatic data frequently hinder runoff assessments needed for formulating water development policies, and the selection of watershed models for estimating the water resource is limited to those requiring a minimum of observational data. A climatic water budget model and an energy slope and aspect model are employed to estimate the water resource for a small watershed in Sierra Valley north of Lake Tahoe. The models employ different assumptions and computational procedures, but the total water available estimated by both models is very similar. Measured runoff is estimated satisfactorily by the models, but streamflow is not representative of the total water resource because a substantial portion of the available water enters the regional ground water system. This conclusion is supported by hydrologic and geochemical evidence, and ground water recharge is estimated to be at least as great as measured runoff during dry years and nearly twice as large during wet years.     

THE STATUS OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION: ITS NATURE,EXTENT AND CONTROL1

Nonpoint source pollution remains as the primary reason for the designation of many of the Nation's streams as “water quality limited.” This means that even with the application of technology-based effluent limitations on point sources, ambient water quality standards will not be met. This paper explores several of the reasons why nonpoint sources are so difficult to come to grips with. These reasons include: (1) the inability to expand the definition of nonpoint sources to encompass nonengineering attributes, (2) the relatively primitive state of characterizing nonpoint sources, (3) the lack of prior success in conducting programs to study and alleviate nonpoint problems, and (4) an uncertain approach to providing incentives for control practices.     

“气候变暖”对雅砻江水资源的影响

本文引入几种统计模型探讨“气候变暖”对水资源的影响。这些模型经实测资料验证，模拟和预测效果了。在一定环境条件下，利用它们预估“气候变暖”对雅砻江未来水资源的影响，获得令人满意的成果。