Reconstructing historical marine ecosystems using food web models: Northern British Columbia from Pre-European contact to present

Mass-balance trophic models (Ecopath with Ecosim) are developed for the marine ecosystem of northern British Columbia (BC) for the historical periods 1750, 1900, 1950 and 2000 AD. Time series data are compiled for catch, fishing mortality and biomass using fisheries statistics and literature values. Using the assembled dataset, dynamics of the 1950-based simulations are fitted to agree with observations over 50 years to 2000 through the manipulation of trophic flow parameters and the addition of climate factors: a primary production anomaly and herring recruitment anomaly. The predicted climate anomalies reflect documented environmental series, most strongly sea surface temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. The best-fit predator–prey interaction parameters indicate mixed trophic control of the ecosystem. Trophic flow parameters from the fitted 1950 model are transferred to the other historical periods assuming stationarity in density-dependent foraging tactics. The 1900 model exhibited an improved fit to data using this approach, which suggests that the pattern of trophic control may have remained constant over much of the last century. The 1950 model is driven forward 50 years using climate and historical fishing drivers. The resulting ecosystem is compared to the 2000 model, and the dynamics of these models are compared in a predictive forecast to 2050. The models suggest similar restoration trajectories after a hypothetical release from fishing.     

OHP02 gravity wave campaign in relation to optical turbulence

Herein we present a campaign dedicated to the detection and the characterization of Gravity Waves (GW) in the Earth’s atmosphere in relation to the generation of Optical Turbulence (OT). The observations took place in France from 17 to 24 July 2002 at the Haute Provence Observatory (OHP) and simultaneously at the Sirene Observatory, some 20 km apart. From both sites, several balloons were launched that measured the classical PTU-Wind profiles and additionally the structure constant of the temperature field vertical profiles. A Generalized Scidar (GS) technique was implemented at the 1.93 m-diameter OHP telescope, providing profiles every minute. From our observations, a significant amount of GW activity was observed at both sites, but without clear evidence of correlation between the two sites. It seems from our observations that a wide spectrum of GW is present at a given altitude and that this could result in a lack of correlation between observations made from two sites 20 km apart. Most GW are non-stationary with long horizontal wavelengths (λ ∼ 100–200 km), kilometric vertical wavelengths (λ ~ 0.5–2 km) and long intrinsic period (T ~ 2–15 h). They belong in the category of “hydrostatic rotating or non-rotating waves”. Layers of optical turbulence detected by balloons and the Scidar technique correlate well with regions of GW activity. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

The potential of statistical state space models in urban ozone forecasting

State space models for tropospheric urban ozone prediction are introduced and compared with linear regression models. The linear and non-linear state space models make accurate short-term predictions of the ozone dynamics. The average prediction error one hour in advance is 7 μg/m³ and increases logarithmically with time until it reaches 26 μg/m³ after 30 days. For a given sequence of solar radiation inputs, predictions converge exponentially with a time scale of 8 hours, so that the model is insensitive to perturbations of more than 150 μg/m³ O₃. The slow increase of the prediction error in addition to the uniqueness of the prediction are encouraging for applications of state space models in forecasting ozone levels when coupled with a model that predicts total radiation. Since a radiation prediction model will be more accurate during cloud-free conditions, in addition to the fact that the state space models perform better during the summer months, state space models are suitable for applications in sunny environments.     

The role of wind field, mixing height and horizontal diffusivity investigated through two lagrangian particle models

Two Lagrangian particle models, APOLLO and MILORD, were used to simulate the first ETEX experiment. The role played by wind field, mixing height h and horizontal diffusivity K_H appeared to be the most important aspects to be studied. The sensitivity to the accuracy of the input advection field was studied through the application of APOLLO using different ECMWF data sets differing in space and time resolution and in being forecasted or analysed, corresponding to the real-time, emergency-like condition, and to the a posteriori benchmark simulation. The role of h and K_H was investigated by running both APOLLO and MILORD with different parameterisations, and comparing the model results between them and with the available observations.The model evaluation was carried out through a set of statistical indexes computed on three hourly average concentrations paired in space and time and time-integrated concentrations. It was found that the quality of the input wind field plays a major role in predicting with sufficient accuracy the plume position and extension after the first 24 h from the beginning of the release. The best-model results are obtained with large values of K_H (in the range of 2.5×10⁴–4.5×10⁴ m² s^-1), which confirms the need to enhance the horizontal diffusion, in order to include the advection fluctuations unresolved by large-scale meteorological fields. A fixed value of h in the range 1000–1500 m seems to be more efficient than space and time variable h computed with standard algorithms. A reasonable explanation for this result is given, based on the consideration that in the long range, particles diffuse also in the residual layer above the stable nocturnal boundary layer.     

Decision-support tools for dynamic management

Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxan's functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time.     

The effect of urban quality improvements on economic activity

This paper is concerned with the link between urban quality improvements and economic activity. A key question is whether improvements in the urban environment which might be achieved, for instance, through pedestrianisation, will affect business location choices - for example, are office or retail businesses particularly keen to locate in more pleasant urban places? The paper outlines the current state of development of the literature with respect to the influence of urban quality on economic activity, and proposes a framework for forecasting economic impacts based on three communities of reference: customers, employees, and the businesses themselves. The results from original modelling of a case study area in Manchester, England are reported and suggest that the positive uplifts that may be expected from environmental improvement programmes may well be on a scale which is significant. The research is obviously important for the urban regeneration and renaissance agendas which posit attractive and well-designed environments as a way to create the right conditions for promoting economic growth.     

模拟降解去除人工湿地营养物

人工湿地能有效去除水中的营养物,作为净化水质的方法之一,正得到广泛的应用.同时,尝试建立数学模型模拟去污过程,预测处理效果,并为湿地的运行管理提供理论支持.综合比较了目前常用的4种模型:回归方程模型、一级动力学模型、Monod模型和生态动力学模型,从分析各模型的原理出发,提出了各类模型的优缺点及适用条件,对湿地模型的建立具有指导作用.     

A Stream Network Model for Integrated Watershed Modeling

We describe a flexible, computationally efficient stream network model, which forms the core of a simulation framework that spatially integrates the contributions from point and nonpoint sources in a watershed. The model uses the map and stream topology information in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Reach File 3 to generate a spatially explicit network of stream reaches. Water and materials are routed through the stream network to the watershed outlet, and the routing process accounts for transit times and for possible nutrient losses in streams. This model can be applied wherever Reach File maps or maps from the newer National Hydrography Dataset are available, and it can be combined with models of other watershed processes to create a complete watershed simulation system. We present an application of the stream network model to two watersheds of different sizes in the Patuxent River watershed of Maryland, USA. Simulated predictions of streamflow and nitrate concentrations are either very good or good according to standards developed for evaluating the widely used Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) watershed model.     

Design of an Air-Quality Surveillance System for Buenos Aires City Integrated by a NO x Monitoring Network and Atmospheric Dispersion Models

This paper presents an air-quality surveillance system designed to detect the occurrence of air pollutant concentrations greater than a reference level in an urban area. The system is integrated by an air-quality monitoring network and atmospheric dispersion models simulations. An objective methodology to design an urban air-quality monitoring network is proposed. This methodology is based on the analysis of air-quality modelling results. The procedure is applied to design an air-quality monitoring network to control NO _x concentration levels in Buenos Aires City. Results indicate that six monitors will detect the occurrence of concentration greater than the air-quality guidelines with an efficiency of about 67%. Once a violation is detected, results of atmospheric dispersion models will help in the determination of affected areas. Four possible examples are included to illustrate the assistance that the results of atmospheric dispersion models can bring to a better estimation of possible affected areas in the city. Combining these results with the last census data, an estimation of the inhabitants possibly exposed is obtained.