国外泥石流机理模型综述

综述了国外与机理有关的几个主要泥石流运动模型。建议近期泥石流运动机理研究宜着重厘定各类模型的适用范围和比较它们的应用结果，并进一步简化现有的机理模型，为泥石流防治工程提供具有一定理论基础和科学依据的流速、流量和冲击力等关键设计参数。与泥石流机理密切相关的预测预报，宜着重于泥石流的中长期预测和预警报，重点突破泥石流规模和发生频率相互关系的问题。     

Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor

The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces, and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate, because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC).     

Comparative study of four QSAR models of aromatic compounds to aquatic organisms

Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs)were developed for 43 aromatic compounds toxicity to Photobacterium phosphoreum and Daphnia magna based on four methods: octanol/water partition coefficient, linear solvation energy relationship, molecular connectivity index and group contribution. Through the evaluation of four QSAR methods, LSER was proved to be the best. And it applied to the widest range of chemicals with the greatest accuracy.     

Numerical simulation of a combined oxidation ditch flow using 3D k-εturbulence model

The standard three dimensional（3D） k-ε turbulence model was applied to simulate the flow field of a small scale combined oxidation ditch. The moving mesh approach was used to model the rotor of the ditch. Comparison of the computed and the measured data is acceptable. A vertical reverse flow zone in the ditch was found, and it played a very important role in the ditch flow behavior. The flow pattern in the ditch is discussed in detail, and approaches are suggested to improve the hydrodynamic performance in the ditch.     

珠江口区域海上溢漏污染物动态预测系统的开发与应用

为了对《珠江口区域溢油应急计划》提供决策支持,在国内外最新研究成果基础上,针对珠江口海域的环境特点研究开发了先进实用的“珠江口区域海上溢漏污染动态预测系统”,综合有三维潮流模型、三维溢油与化学品漂移扩散模型、溢油风化模型、应急反应模型、以及电子海图、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库等关键技术,能够快速准确地预测并可视化显示不同种类的溢漏油品、化学品在水面及水体中的漂移扩散范同和性质变化过程,还可以同时显示环境敏感区和应急人员设备分布等相关信息。经实际溢油案例应用表明,系统的预测结果与现场实际情况相符。此系统的成功开发应用将有效地提高对船舶污染事故的应急指挥效率。     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

北京市大气环境二氧化硫浓度分布初探

利用北京市大气自动监测系统冬季逐时二氧化硫浓度监测资料，分析研究了对数正态分布，Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，指数分布等常用分布模型对监测资料人布推迟合的适用性，并估算出各种分布模型的参数值。研究发现城区及高百分位数二氧化硫浓度频率分布符合Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，近郊及背景站的浓度分布符合常用的对数正态分布，二氧化硫浓度的频率分布不符合指数分布规律。     

水雾扩散及其对环境影响的模拟研究

利用三维有量方程闭合大气界层模式攻随机游动模式组成一个大气扩散实用模拟系统，模式考虑了测流夹卷，雾漳蒸发，重方学降等物理过程，模拟研究了水电站泄洪产生的水雾的扩散及其对环境相对湿度的影响，模拟结果表明，中性层结条件下，国扩散距离为２５８ｍ，水雾最远影响距离为１ｋｍ左右，使环境相对温度增加１％～３％，大气稳定度对水雾扩散有很大的影响，不稳定情况下，水雾扩散和影响范围较小；但因国蒸发量大，国扩散和影响     

某海外项目应急机排烟扩散对直升机起降影响分析

目的对某海外海洋平台的直升机甲板上空直升机起降存在的风险进行分析。方法对比分析国内外的标准规范,确定以CAP437为直升机起降的量化衡量指标,在此基础上利用数值模拟软件对影响直升机起降的两个主要因素,温度场和湍流场进行模拟分析。结果无论是温升,还是湍流强度都不会对直升机的起降造成影响。结论该海外海洋平台上直升机甲板的不可用概率为0。同时确认此平台柴油应急机的烟气排放,及空调冷凝单元气体排放位置设置合理。     

A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras

We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.