Project of an Air Quality Monitoring Network for Industrial Site in Italy

In this paper results concerning project of an atmospheric monitoring network applied to an area of south of Italy carried out using chemical measurement campaigns (for traffic emissions characterisation couple with diffusional simulation of industrial pollutant emissions will be presented. The area selected is characterised by an high concentration of high environmental impacting industrial activities, with also high concentration of urban settlement and vehicular traffic. A comprehensive definition of all the monitoring system to be installed in order to have a correct monitoring system for the all province will be described and discussed.     

Representational success: A new paradigm for achieving species protection by reserve site selection

Models for designing habitat reserve networks have focused on minimizing the number of sites necessary to cover each species one or more times. A solution to this problem is usually one from among a large number of alternative optimal configurations of sites. This paper develops an iterative method for building reserve networks that produces an optimal solution to the species set covering problem (SSCP) and also maximizes the number of species covered two or more times, three or more times, and so on, conditional on the solution to the previous iteration. We refer to this as representational success. Thus, a pareto optimal species set covering is achieved that is preferable to an arbitrary optimal solution to the SSCP.     

Structural perturbations of models used in mathematical biology

The paper discusses the importance of understanding structural perturbations of models used in mathematical biology, where we mainly focus on ecology and dynamical systems. We describe first briefly the classical modeling strategy and the derivation of model structures. Structural perturbations are then discussed, mainly in the framework of ODEs. We give some examples how insights obtained from this type of model could be transfered to other kinds of models. Finally we propose an alternative modeling strategy characterized by a systematic investigation of a models neighbourhood in an appropriately chosen model class.     

缺磷及高光照条件下紊动对铜绿微囊藻生长的影响

通过试制隔栅搅拌模拟紊动装置,设置格栅转动频率为0,500,1000,1500Hz（对应紊流能量耗散率范围0～8.93×10^-3m²/s³）,研究高光照与缺P的不利环境条件下紊动对铜绿微囊藻生长的影响.结果发现,在高光照（8000lx）下,微囊藻生长明显受到抑制,静止条件下藻浓度仅为正常光照的47.7%,但紊动可一定程度上减缓高光环境的影响,其中高光照下1000Hz组藻浓度最高,相对静止提高了1.8倍.高光照试验组的叶绿素a含量是正常光照条件1.52~1.78倍,因此高光照并未促进藻细胞的生长分裂,而叶绿素a的大量累积可能是铜绿微囊藻应对高光照不利条件作出的抵御反应.在缺P条件下,藻生物量仅为正常营养条件1/6~1/4,但随紊动强度增加,藻生物量略有增加,而叶绿素较初始浓度增加明显,其中1000Hz组生长情况最好.水体紊动可缓解高光照、缺P等恶劣环境条件对铜绿微囊藻生长的抑制,叶绿素a的累积可能是藻细胞对不利环境条件的响应.     

资源承载力监测——以西藏“一江两河”地区为例

对自然资源的无序开发和对生态系统的破坏制约了我国的可持续发展。资源承载力是描述地区发展受自然资源限制的重要工具,也是衡量区域可持续发展的重要依据。基于西藏“一江两河”地区县级统计数据,定量计算水、土和生态等资源承载力,并根据定量评价结果构建资源承载力监测体系并应用于“一江两河”地区。研究结果表明:（1）“一江两河”地区人粮关系趋于紧张,部分地区人口—粮食—土地矛盾突出,76.5%的县土地资源承载力下降,83.3%的县土地资源承载指数增长;“一江两河”地区各县（市、区）水资源承载力远大于实际人口,承载指数均小于0.05,但77.8%的县水资源承载力下降,县域承载指数均增长;各县生态承载力增长,承载指数下降,部分县处于生态赤字状态。（2）“一江两河”地区资源承载力的主要制约因素由生态承载力转变为土地资源承载力。2000—2015年,在“一江两河”地区资源承载力处于临界超载或超载的县中,对资源承载状态影响最大的资源承载力由生态承载力逐步转变为土地资源承载力。（3）“一江两河”地区资源承载力等级逐渐提升,可能带来的危害或负面影响程度降低。2000—2015年,资源承载力为三级（中度负载）及以下等级的县由15个（83.3%）降至3个（16.7%）。资源承载力长效监测机制的建立有助于明晰资源开发利用现状,科学利用区域自然资源,促进地区生态保护和可持续发展。     

基于GAM模型的太湖叶绿素a含量与环境因子相关性分析

随着富营养化程度的加剧,太湖近30年来水华频发.为了探讨太湖西部沿岸水华暴发与环境因子的关系,于2017年4月1-18日（当地历年蓝藻暴发早期）在太湖西部沿岸进行了密集原位调查.共采集样品72个,测定了水温、溶解氧、各形态氮、磷营养盐浓度以及风速等环境指标,并利用GAM（广义相加模型）定量分析了叶绿素a含量与各环境因子间的关系.结果表明:①叶绿素a含量波动幅度较大（17.10~795.89 mg/m3）,太湖西部沿岸带有明显的蓝藻水华暴发现象.②水温、风速以及硝态氮浓度与叶绿素a含量的变化显著相关（P<0.05）,各环境因子按其对叶绿素a含量变化的解释率排序为水温>风速>硝态氮浓度.其中水温是影响叶绿素a含量最为重要的环境因子,叶绿素a含量随着水温的升高呈现明显上升趋势.风速也是影响叶绿素a含量的关键因子之一,较低的风速（<3 m/s）有利于蓝藻的漂移集聚从而形成水华,引起叶绿素a含量的升高.研究显示,GAM模型较好地解释了叶绿素a的含量变化,模型总体解释度达到70.6%,可为太湖西部沿岸蓝藻水华早期的预测预警提供一定的基础支撑.      

潮汐河口环流、湍流、混合与层化的物理学

简要回顾了潮汐河口环流、湍流、混合与层化的基本物理概念、内涵、研究方法、研究成果,指出了主要的研究进展,最后,展望了今后的研究方向。本文不考虑悬沙和风浪的影响。经典的河口环流也因潮汐应变的出现而受到挑战,河口环流由重力环流和潮汐应变环流构成。“涡黏度-剪切协方差(ESCO)”概念的提出,又区分出重力ESCO环流与潮汐ESCO环流。横向环流,尤其具有曲率的弯道中的横向环流,也得到进一步的理解。涡度方法的应用,揭示横向环流不仅由各种不同物理机制造成,而且对纵向河口重力环流有重要的影响。分层流中剪切湍流的理论加深了人们对潮汐河口湍流、混合的物理学的认识,势能差异方程更是使得定量理解潮汐河口混合与层化的三维时间、空间变化成为可能。     

双气体射流作用下燃煤可吸入颗粒团聚研究

大气中的可吸入颗粒物对有机体危害很大,已经成为世界范围内重要的大气污染源。在可吸入颗粒团聚室内引入双射流,通过双气体射流在团聚室内形成大小不同尺度涡旋,促进流场可吸入颗粒团聚。实验结果表明:10μm以下的可吸入颗粒在单射流作用下减少了21.9%,在双射流作用下减少了58.0%。异侧双射流的团聚清除率高于同侧双射流的清除效率,异侧双射流管间距增加更有利于可吸入颗粒的团聚。双射流管出口Re增加,颗粒质量清除率增大;但不同粒径颗粒的单级团聚效率则与粒径密切相关。颗粒的质量清除率随着主气流与射流流量比增大呈现逐渐减小的趋势。     

Correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists in single-vehicle crashes

Objectives: In order to improve motorcycle safety, this article examines the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists, under multiple precrash conditions. Method: Ten-year crash data for single-vehicle motorcycle crashes from the General Estimates Systems (GES) were analyzed, using partial proportional odds models (i.e., generalized ordered logit models). Results: The modeling results show that “braking (no lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of increased severity, whereas “braking (lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of decreased severity, under all precrash conditions. “Steering” is associated with a higher probability of reduced injury severity when other vehicles are encroaching, whereas it is correlated with high injury severity under other conditions. “Braking and steering” is significantly associated with a higher probability of low severity under “animal encounter and object presence,” whereas it is surprisingly correlated with high injury severity when motorcycles are traveling off the edge of the road. The results also show that a large number of motorcyclists did not perform any crash avoidance maneuvers or conducted crash avoidance maneuvers that are significantly associated with high injury severity. Conclusions: In general, this study suggests that precrash maneuvers are an important factor associated with motorcyclists' injury severity. To improve motorcycle safety, training/educational programs should be considered to improve safety awareness and adjust driving habits of motorcyclists. Antilock brakes and such systems are also promising, because they could effectively prevent brake lock-up and assist motorcyclists in maneuvering during critical conditions. This study also provides valuable information for the design of motorcycle training curriculum.