南方某县居民尿镉浓度和相关影响因素研究

本文采用整群随机抽样的方法,抽取污染区、对照区10个村的1274个居民开展内暴露及问卷调查,通过采集这些居民的晨尿和10个村的土壤、大气颗粒物、饮用水、大米样品,对采集的所有样品进行了镉含量的测定.同时,将这些检测调查资料通过MLwiN 2.02软件进行多水平模型拟合,以评估南方某县污染区和对照区居民尿镉含量在不同水平之间的差异性,并找出影响这种差异的社会人口和环境方面的因素.结果表明,居民的尿镉含量在村和个体不同水平上均存在显著差异,其中,QL-3、FJ-4污染区人体尿镉含量明显高于其它研究区,远远超过其临界值.多水平模型的结果显示,土壤镉含量、大米镉含量、居民性别、居民的外出工作时长和居住地离污染企业的距离对居民尿镉水平有影响,而居民的年龄、涉镉工作时长、吸烟时长和在当地生活时长这4个因素对居民尿镉水平的影响差异没有统计学意义.与一般线性模型相比,多水平模型拟合的效果更佳.研究表明,多水平模型能够较合理地揭示居民尿镉水平的地区差异及社会人口和环境因素的影响.     

模糊数学法在兰州市地表水环境质量评价中的应用分析研究

根据模糊数学理论,建立了水环境质量模糊综合评价数学模型.选取兰州市地表水为研究对象,对兰州市地表水(黄河岸门桥断面)2009年-2014年全年各项水质平均值进行水环境质量评价,更加综合的评价兰州市地表水环境质量变化趋势及主要污染物,科学的分析兰州市地表水环境质量现状和存在的问题.结果表明:兰州市地表水2009年-2014年环境质量呈日益改善的状态,2009年-2010年兰州市地表水环境质量综合评价结果属于V类,2010年-2014年兰州市地表水环境质量综合评价结果属于Ⅰ类,水体中主要污染物为总氮.     

Are dispersion models suitable for simulating small gaseous chlorine releases?

Dispersion models are mostly validated on the basis of historical dispersion experiments. The latter imply large quantities of hazardous products (flammable or toxic gases), and are dedicated to study the dispersion of the resulting clouds on great distances from the source to reach a better knowledge of the different phases of gas dispersion (slumping, creeping, passive dispersion…).However, dispersion models have hardly been validated on small releases and therefore require more validation on small plumes of dangerous gases. Indeed, what is their reliability in case of accidents involving small amounts (e.g., chlorine leakages at swimming pools’ installations), and for small distances downwind the gas source? This information is of prime interest in so far as small releases are more likely to occur than larger ones.This paper reports on chlorine small-scale dispersion experiments and deals with the comparison between experimental data of ground level concentrations in the plume and predicted concentrations obtained from several dispersion models.     

人群疏散中"非适应性"行为的研究

本文从人与人的相互作用和社会学、心理学的角度,对人群疏散中“非适应性”行为的理论、计算机模型、模拟原理等进行了较为深入的研究,并以具体实例说明了Building Exodus软件在人群疏散模拟分析中的具体应用,为完善该研究方向的计算机模型和促进软件的开发提供理论和方法的指导.文章得出的结论是：“非适应”人群行为的研究需要从心理学和社会学的角度建立人群中个人行为与社会行为的理论框架.“非适应”人群行为的研究方法必须与紧急情况相结合,而紧急情况是一个由多个人员组成的复杂系统,大量人群环境的模拟需要涉及到人与人之间,人与环境之间的相互作用.     

IMPACT OF VARIED DATA RESOLUTION ON HYDRAULIC MODELING AND FLOODPLAIN DELINEATION1

ABSTRACT: Current data collection technologies such as light detection and ranging (LIDAR) produce dense digital terrain data that result in more accurate digital terrain models (DTMs) for engineering applications. However, such data are redundant and often cumbersome for hydrologic and hydraulic modeling purposes. Data filtering provides a means of eliminating redundant points and facilitates model preparation. This paper demonstrates the impact of varied data resolution on a case study completed for a 2.3 mi² area with mild slopes (about 001 ft/ft) along Leith Creek near Laurinburg, North Carolina. For the original data set and seven filtered data sets, filtering induced changes in elevation, area, and hydraulic radius were determined for 10 water depths at 23 cross sections. Water surface elevations resulting from HEC‐RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center‐River Analysis System) models for each data set were then compared. A hydraulic model sensitivity analysis was also conducted to compare filtering error to error introduced by variation in flow rates and roughness values. Finally, automated floodplain delineation was performed for each filter level based on the computed hydraulic model results and the filtered LIDAR elevations. Data filtering results indicate that significant time savings are achieved throughout the modeling process and that filtering to four degrees can be performed without compromising cross‐sectional geometry, hydraulic model results, or floodplain delineation results.     

The Effect of Large-Scale Turbulent Structures on a Simple 2-D Canyon-Type Flow

This paper is concerned with a preliminary experimental investigation of the interaction between large turbulent structures, generated in the wake of a circular cylinder, and the rough-wall turbulent boundary layer separated flow immediately downstream of a simple street canyon type geometry represented by backward-facing step. The motivation for the work was to provide some initial data for the validation of a 3-D k- turbulence model used for the prediction of flows and pollutant dispersion within the urban canopy. The aim has been to assess the extent of the perturbation of a simulated street canyon caused by regular large-scale eddies generated upstream. The research has involved the use of thermal anemometry to determine mean velocity and turbulence characteristics both upstream and downstream of the step, together with the mean reacttachment length for the recirculating flow. The results indicate that the presence of the cylinder in the flow reduces the reattachment length. In addition, the periodic structures generated in the cylinder wake are rapidly mixed with the turbulence in the step shear layer such that no periodicity is detected at the reattachment zone.     

Invasion of Gleditsia triacanthos in Lithraea ternifolia Montane Forests of Central Argentina

Gleditsia triacanthos and the native dominant Lithraea ternifolia in montane forests of central Argentina, considering life history and demographic traits of both the alien and the native species and different site conditions for population growth (good and bad sites). Matrix models are applied to project the consequences of differences in vital rates for population growth. Analyzing these models helps identify which life cycle transitions contributed most to population growth. Obtained population growth rates are considered to assess predicted rates of spread using the reaction-diffusion (R-D) model. G. triacanthos presents many of the life history traits that confer plants high potential for invasiveness: fast growth, clonal and sexual reproduction, short juvenile period, high seed production, and high seed germinability. These traits would ensure G. triacanthos invasive success and the displacement of the slow-growing, relatively less fecund native L. ternifolia. However, since disturbance and environmental heterogeneity complicate the invasibility pattern of G. triacanthos in these montane forests, the outcome of the invasion process is not straightforward as could be if only life history traits were considered. Great variation in demographic parameters was observed between populations of each species at good and bad sites. Though both good and bad sites signified increasing or at least stable populations for G. triacanthos, for L. ternifolia bad sites represented local extinction. Analyzing the results of matrices models helps design the optimal management for the conservation of L. ternifolia populations while preventing the invasion by G. triacanthos. The predicted asymptotic rate of spread for G. triacanthos at the good site was fourfold greater than the predicted one for L. ternifolia, although the difference was much smaller considering the bad site. The usefulness of the R-D model to study this invasion system is discussed.     

VALIDATION OF POLITICAL SIMULATION MODELS -WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT. The critical role of political processes in water resource projects has recently been placed in a new perspective [Hall, 1970]. The “political hassle” period of institutional interaction which serves to resolve political conflicts over such aspects as organizational growth and survival, responsibility for economic liabilities, and responsibility for economic benefits, requires systematic analysis in order to improve our capability to implement water projects. Failure to properly assess the political aspects of a proposed water project may result in extensive delays with significant economic losses. The complexities associated with water use and re-use have created the need for new institutional arrangements which can more effectively function to implement policies and programs. One tool which has recently become available for the research investigator concerned with institutional interactions and political processes associated with water resource projects is the technique of computer simulation of such institutional interaction. In theory, this new approach will enable the investigator to assess the political feasibility or political acceptability of a proposed water project given existing institutional structures. Furthermore, the investigator has the opportunity to experiment with new and innovative institutional arrangements which may in turn enhance the political acceptability of a proposed project. The specific material presented within this paper reports upon the validation of an existing computer simulation model designed to replicate political interactions in resource allocation problems-including water resource problems. This validation effort is done by taking an actual water problem and comparing what the political simulation models predicts in terms of political outcomes with what actually takes place. The case study in question is the formulation and legislative development of the Michigan Bond Issue for Water Pollution Control.     

FLOOD PLAIN MODELING1

Computer simulation of river basin hydrology has rapidly progressed from an interesting academic exercise to a practical engineering procedure of increasing utility. Mathematical models of the many interrelated processes which occur in a basin have been developed along with efficient numerical procedures for their solution. The present paper is concerned with a particular model which has been used to describe the transformation of a temporally and spatially varying rainfall into a time history of stage and discharge on a flood plain. Although developed principally as a model of the physical processes involved, it is envisioned that the model can serve as one component of an information system for flood plain planning and management. The model consists of the following elements: (i) a rainfall simulation which generates stochastic inputs to the model according to specified rainfall statistics, (ii) a catchment-runoff model which converts the rainfall to surface runoff, (iii) a flood stage model which converts the surface runoff to time histories of flood stage and discharge. The model has been used to investigate the effect of various structural flood control measures in a basin and, in particular, to establish frequency-stage information for each of these. Of particular interest in development of the model have been recurring and partially unanswered questions relative to the proper balance among availability of data for use in the model, data requirements of the model and the objectives of the outputs produced by the model.     

基于ZJU400土工离心机的CFD模拟方法

目的给出可靠的CFD模拟方法,用于土工离心机风阻功率估算,得到流场及温度场模拟结果。方法针对ZJU400中高速大型土工离心机,利用结构化网格划分使转臂及内壁面处的y+值<30,使其满足湍流模型边界层厚度要求。利用k-omega SST湍流模型和MRF多参考系方法对ZJU400土工离心机进行数值模拟,对模拟所得风阻功率、流场和温度场进行对比验证。结果模拟所得风阻功率与ZJU400实测数据偏差<10%,模拟所得流场与文献[8]中的结果吻合,温度场与实测数据吻合。结论针对ZJU400中高速大型土工离心机的CFD模拟方法取得了精度较高的模拟结果,通过仿真模拟弥补了大型土工离心机实验数据缺乏问题,减少了对实验数据的依赖,为制造设计和研究大型土工离心机提供了CFD模拟方法。