中国火灾最佳灰色回归组合预测模型

火灾现象具有随机性、模糊性,是个复杂的灰色系统行为。研究火灾发生的规律及发展趋势,具有实用价值。笔者给出最小二乘估计意义下的最佳组合预测模型的定义,并求得其权的公式和证明权的惟一性;用回归分析方法建立多个回归模型,并按3条标准即①回归指数大、②系统误差小、③模型精度高,选定最佳非线性回归模型;用灰色理论建立多个灰色模型,并按3条标准即①后验差比值小、②小误差概率大、③预测关联度大,选定最佳灰色模型;再将最佳回归模型与最佳灰色模型有机地结合起来建立中国火灾最佳灰色回归组合预测模型。组合预测模型综合利用前两者提供的不同的有用信息,改善了单一模型的局限性,提高了预测精度,减少了预测误差。组合模型预测中国年火灾起数处于动态增长过程。     

基于人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型的人因操作失误研究

以人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型为指导,选择包含技能型、规则型和知识型3种认知类型,结合大连化工集团公司影响运行安全的17个异常事件,对54名操纵员的时间响应状况和允许操作时间进行录像、记录与分析;依据IAEA提供的指标[1],找出操纵员在生产过程中可能出现的操作失误类别及其可能造成的危害;基于3参数威布尔模型推导出操纵员操作响应失误概率模型,并从人机工程学角度提出了具体预防事故的安全对策措施。结果表明,基于HCR模型的大化集团公司操纵员的人因操作失误模型实用、有效,为实现操作者与机器系统相协调的目标、正确评估操作着实时操作的响应时间提供了重要参考依据。     

企业员工安全文化素质的层次分析

建设良好的企业安全文化可以预防企业的事故发生,而企业员工安全文化素质则是企业安全文化的根基,也是企业安全文化的具体体现。通过建立员工安全文化层次渐近模型,分析企业员工安全文化素质的5个层次,即安全的无意识、体制约束下的安全意识、自我的安全意识、自我的可控安全意识、超越自我的安全意识。从中得出,员工安全文化素质的培养是一个长期的渐进的过程,是相互协作的结果。员工安全意识的培养是企业安全文化的标志,它需要良好的氛围,并且体现了企业安全文化的核心本质。因此,培养员工安全文化意识对解决企业安全文化建设及保证企业安全运转具有十分重要的意义。     

论楔块运动与地震带的关系

目前，地震和地震带的成因问题仍然是世界性的科学难题。本研究认为圈闭隐爆作用能形成正楔块、倒楔块；负荷均衡作用能引起楔块运动；楔块运动形成了断陷盆地，也就是说，地堑、地垒是楔块运动的产物；最终，试图通过对楔块运动模式的研究揭示地壳凹陷与地震带的成因问题。     

DOCUMENTATION OF HIGH SUMMER FLOWS ON THE POTOMAC RIVER FROM THE WOOD ANATOMY OF ASH TREES1

ABSTRACT: Ash trees (Fraxinus americana L. and F. Pennsylvanica Marsh.) collected from the flood plain of the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., were studied for evidence of associations between known periods of above-average summer flows and changes in wood-growth anatomy. Concentric bands of latewood fibers with atypically large lumens and thin walls commonly developed in trees growing near the low-water channel. Discharge records indicate that roots of most trees with these “white rings” were flooded temporarily during the latewood-growth interval. Trees apparently were not damaged and a concomitant reduction of internal water stresses seems to have accelerated the rate of radial growth. The intra-ring position of anomalous fibers generally corresponded to the time of increased discharge within the estimated interval of latewood growth. Anomalous fibers occasionally formed in unflooded trees, but their position also coincided with episodes of increased discharge. The results of these studies may have applications for streamflow-reconstruction techniques where hydrologic data are incomplete or lacking.     

西部大开发中“西气东输”的储量保证与可持续发展

在西部大开发中 ,能源占有举足轻重的作用。我国西部的塔里木、准噶尔、吐 -哈、柴达木、鄂尔多斯、四川等六大含油气盆地含有丰富的天然气资源 ,储量大于 5 0 0× 10 8m3的 9个大气田中 ,西部就占 7个。中国天然气预测资源总量为 38× 10 12 m3,其中西部天然气预测资源量为 2 2 .4× 10 12 m3,占天然气预测资源总量的 5 8.9%。仅就西部的塔里木盆地而言 ,剩余可采储量为 3397× 10 8m3,按年产 12 0× 10 8m3计算 ,储采比为 2 8,塔里木盆地天然气有动态稳产 30年的储量保证 ,这对于“西气东输”工程的实施、西部经济的腾飞和可持续发展具有重要意义     

TOXIC METALS IN SURFACE WATERS FROM COAL ASH1

ABSTRACT: The concentration of 10 [titanium (Ti), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), chromium (CR), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), selenium (Se), cobalt (Co), cadmium (Cd), and mercury (Hg)] toxic elements were measured in the water, benthic sediment, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates of an ash basin and its drainage system at a coal-fired power plant of the Savannah River Project, Aiken, S.C., over a period of two years. During 12 months of this period the basin was essentially filled and little settling of ash occurred. In the remaining 12 months, dredging had been completed, adequate settling occurred and most of the effluent turbidity was removed. All elements were more concentrated in sediment and biota than in water, and five (Mn, Cu, As, Zn, and Se) were biomagnified by at least one biotic component as compared to concentration in benthic sediment. Plants had high accumulations of Ti, Mn, As, and Hg; invertebrates had high accumulations of Co, Hg, Cu, Cr, Cd, and As; and vertebrates greatly biomagnified Se and Zn. The streamlined biotic community of the system accomplished major removal of Mn, Zn, As, Se, and Cd from the effluent. The magnitude of bioaccumulation of Ti, Mn, Zn, As, Se, Cd, and Hg was increased during the period of adequate settling in the basin.     

山脊防火林带有效结构的研究

防火林带的防火性能与阻风性能密切相关。本实验采用风洞模拟方法,对通风结构、疏透结构和紧密结构3种防火林带附近的风速进行测定,绘制了3种结构防火林带迎风面的风廊线。结果表明：紧密结构与疏透结构防火林带附近的阻风性能比较好,而通风结构阻风性能最差;但紧密结构防火林带上方的相对风速高达130％,为飞火的产生创造了条件;疏透结构林带上方的最大相对风速只有110％,不具备飞火产生的条件。所以,山脊防火林带的有效结构为疏透结构。     

Questionable accountability: MSF and Sphere in 2003

This article examines the relationship between Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and the Sphere Project. Prior to revisiting the concerns MSF had with the project, it looks at factors that give rise to differences between NGOs and cites some reasons for why an organisation such as MSF would not embrace such a project and clarifies some key elements of MSF-style humanitarianism. The author revisits the original concerns and arguments presented by MSF when it decided not to participate beyond assisting with the establishment of technical standards and key indicators for the handbook. This is followed by a critical discussion examining these concerns and counter-criticism with reference to experiences a few years after the inception of Sphere. It concludes with MSF's perceptions and stance regarding Sphere and accountability in 2003.     

谈"动态对等"的缺陷

美国著名翻译理论家Nida提出的"动态对等"原则是对翻译理论界的一大贡献.笔者在承认这个原则的同时,从它概念的几个关键词入手,指出这个概念中几个值得商榷的地方,认为它的理论基础不牢靠,并分析了它所忽视的翻译所涉及的几个要素,由此表明,翻译这种涉及到许多因素的复杂活动不能依靠一种理论来指导.