基于多维视角的资源型城市经济转型时机理论分析与判断——以大庆市为例

经济转型是资源型城市实现可持续发展的必然过程,而经济转型时机对城市转型路径与转型效果具有重要影响。以资源型城市生命周期曲线为工具,尝试从资源开发时序、产业结构演进、空间结构演化和生态环境变化四个维度构建经济转型时机的理论分析框架,并以大庆市为实证,探究大庆市所处的经济转型时机,以期为大庆市制定经济转型策略提供理论依据,并对国内资源型城市经济转型时机的判断提供思路和启示。     

Exceptional responders in conservation

Conservation operates within complex systems with incomplete knowledge of the system and the interventions utilized. This frequently results in the inability to find generally applicable methods to alleviate threats to Earth's vanishing wildlife. One approach used in medicine and the social sciences has been to develop a deeper understanding of positive outliers. Where such outliers share similar characteristics, they may be considered exceptional responders. We devised a 4‐step framework for identifying exceptional responders in conservation: identification of the study system, identification of the response structure, identification of the threshold for exceptionalism, and identification of commonalities among outliers. Evaluation of exceptional responders provides additional information that is often ignored in randomized controlled trials and before–after control‐intervention experiments. Interrogating the contextual factors that contribute to an exceptional outcome allow exceptional responders to become valuable pieces of information leading to unexpected discoveries and novel hypotheses.     

Developing a theory of change for a community‐based response to illegal wildlife trade

The escalating illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the most high‐profile conservation challenges today. The crisis has attracted over US$350 million in donor and government funding in recent years, primarily directed at increased enforcement. There is growing recognition among practitioners and policy makers of the need to engage rural communities that neighbor or live with wildlife as key partners in tackling IWT. However, a framework to guide such community engagement is lacking. We developed a theory of change (ToC) to guide policy makers, donors, and practitioners in partnering with communities to combat IWT. We identified 4 pathways for community‐level actions: strengthen disincentives for illegal behavior, increase incentives for wildlife stewardship, decrease costs of living with wildlife, and support livelihoods that are not related to wildlife. To succeed the pathways, all require strengthening of enabling conditions, including capacity building, and of governance. Our ToC serves to guide actions to tackle IWT and to inform the evaluation of policies. Moreover, it can be used to foster dialogue among IWT stakeholders, from local communities to governments and international donors, to develop a more effective, holistic, and sustainable community‐based response to the IWT crisis.     

Incorporation of Spatial and Economic Analyses of Human‐Use Data in the Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: Social, economic, and ecological criteria contribute to the successful design, implementation, and management of marine protected areas (MPAs). In the context of California's Marine Life Protection Act Initiative, we developed a set of methods for collecting, compiling, and analyzing data about the spatial extent and relative economic importance of commercial and recreational fishing. We interviewed 174 commercial fishers who represented the major fisheries in the initiative's north‐central coast region, which extends from Point Arena south to Pigeon Point. These fishers provided data that we used to map the extent of each of the fishing grounds, to weight the relative importance of areas within the grounds, to characterize the operating costs of each fishery, and to analyze the potential economic losses associated with proposed marine protected areas. A regional stakeholder group used the maps and impact analyses in conjunction with other data sets to iteratively identify economic and ecological trade‐offs in designations of different areas as MPAs at regional, port, and fishery extents. Their final proposed MPA network designated 20% of state waters as MPAs. Potential net economic loss ranged from 1.7% to 14.2% in the first round of network design and totaled 6.3% in the final round of design. This process is a case study in the application of spatial analysis to validate and integrate local stakeholder knowledge in marine planning.     

A Watershed Approach to Improve Water Quality: Case Study of Clean Water Services’ Tualatin River Program1

Cochran, Bobby and Charles Logue, 2011. A Watershed Approach to Improve Water Quality: Case Study of Clean Water Services’ Tualatin River Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):29‐38. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00491.x Abstract: Over the last five years, Clean Water Services developed and implemented a program to offset thermal load discharged from its wastewater facilities to the Tualatin River by planting trees to shade streams and augmenting summertime instream flows. The program has overcome challenges facing many of the nation’s water quality trading programs to not only gain consensus on the frameworks needed to authorize trading, but also provide a broad range of ecosystem services. This paper compares the Tualatin case study with some of the commonly cited factors of successful trading programs.     

基于行为安全的建筑事故预防量化方法与实证研究

在阐述安全行为(BBS)预防事故原理及其应用效果的基础上,选取某工程项目作为试验对象,结合我国建筑业一线工人的特点,对BBS实施中的培训方法、关键行为确认、观察方法3个关键环节进行具体试验。试验中建立了行为变化指数的图线,使用了安全行为指数(SI)来评定一线工人的安全行为及变化趋势。试验结果显示施工现场一线工人作业过程中的SI比基线期提高15%,表明所设计的BBS方法对于提高施工现场一线工人的行为安全性具有明显的效果。     

NO_x光解测量装置的观测应用实例

将一套基于NO2光解原理自主设计的光解室与Thermo 42i系列氮氧化物分析仪的化学发光检测室联用,应用于四川资阳乡村站的外场观测中.结果发现,在进样流量170 m L·min-1、光源温度20℃、光源功率约60 W的条件下,该套自主设计的光解室对NO2的转化效率可连续30 d稳定在80%.同时,与传统钼转化炉法进行了比对,发现两种方法得到的NO浓度测量结果趋于一致(误差5%以内,R2=0.99);而NO2的测量结果则是钼转化炉法显著偏高于光解法,偏差约为3.72 ppbv(R2=0.86).将两种方法的测量差值(ΔNO2)与O3、NOz([NOz]=[NOy]-[NOx])及NO2光解速率J(NO2)等数据进行分析,推论出ΔNO2由钼转化炉中部分NOz热转化所致,且ΔNO2在NO2低浓度段偏差的不确定性也初步归因于NOz浓度测量的不确定性.利用观测中获得的HONO、HNO3、PAN浓度代表NOz对NO2进行修正后,再次与光解法测量结果比对,结果证实钼转化炉法的高估值确由部分NOz物种导致,同时证实光解法测量结果更接近NO2的真实值.     

源解析中环境受体数据处理与扩展方法的建立

本文对包含污染源或气象条件等发生剧烈变化且数据量小的实测受体数据进行了正态扩展,得到扩展数据.同时,利用PMF和PCA模型验证了扩展方法得到的数据量是否能满足模型的要求.结果表明,扩展范围和扩展受体成分谱个数是两个影响扩展数据合理性的主要因素,最佳扩展条件为:扩展范围取标准差的0.5倍,扩展受体成分谱个数为6个.通过53 h算法标记出每个化学成分时间序列中能够代表污染源或气象条件等发生剧烈变化的值并给出对应的估计值.将与估计值的相对误差(RE)超过80%的被标记的值剔除,其余的替换成估计值,发现扩展后PCA解析结果与原始数据处理后数据解析结果基本一致,能够得到主要贡献的污染源及贡献率;若将被标记的值全部剔除后,则不适合做PCA解析;仅通过PMF验证,且扩展数据与原始数据的解析结果中污染源类的判断一致.将受体数据各化学成分的时间序列中代表污染源或气象条件等发生剧烈变化的值替换成53 h算法给出的估计值,对于受体数据量小且用无源成分谱的多元统计方法解析无法给出结果的情况下的源解析有更大价值.     

不同物料堆肥富里酸的结构特征的研究

通过三维荧光平行因子分析（EEM-PARAFAC）和二维相关光谱（2DCOS）分析了富含木质纤维素类物料（果蔬废物和杂草废物）和富含木质素类物料（秸秆废物和园林修剪废物）堆肥形成的富里酸的结构和组成.结果显示，两类堆肥物料形成的富里酸结构差异显著.虽然两类物料的荧光组分含量及变化基本相似，但是特征官能团与其荧光组分的变化顺序却不同.富含木质纤维素类物料堆肥形成的富里酸中类酪氨酸和类色氨酸先于芳环形成，而富含木质素类物料堆肥形成的富里酸中芳环先于类酪氨酸和类色氨酸.并且，研究发现在堆肥高温期和腐熟期，富里酸的芳环含量在木质纤维类和木质类物料中分别增加了约10%和5%，脂肪族的含量分别下降了约10%和6%，说明堆肥过程中富里酸结构中脂肪族逐渐降解并伴随其芳香性逐渐增加；结构方程模型结果表明，类富里酸、脂肪族基团和羧基是富里酸中芳环形成的关键组分.本文研究结果可为明确堆肥过程中富里酸的形成提供理论基础.     

Effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas in the Philippines for Biodiversity Conservation

Abstract: Quantifying the extent to which existing reserves meet conservation objectives and identifying gaps in coverage are vital to developing systematic protected‐area networks. Despite widespread recognition of the Philippines as a global priority for marine conservation, limited work has been undertaken to evaluate the conservation effectiveness of existing marine protected areas (MPAs). Targets for MPA coverage in the Philippines have been specified in the 1998 Fisheries Code legislation, which calls for 15% of coastal municipal waters (within 15 km of the coastline) to be protected within no‐take MPAs, and the Philippine Marine Sanctuary Strategy (2004), which aims to protect 10% of coral reef area in no‐take MPAs by 2020. We used a newly compiled database of nearly 1000 MPAs to measure progress toward these targets. We evaluated conservation effectiveness of MPAs in two ways. First, we determined the degree to which marine bioregions and conservation priority areas are represented within existing MPAs. Second, we assessed the size and spacing patterns of reserves in terms of best‐practice recommendations. We found that the current extent and distribution of MPAs does not adequately represent biodiversity. At present just 0.5% of municipal waters and 2.7–3.4% of coral reef area in the Philippines are protected in no‐take MPAs. Moreover, 85% of no‐take area is in just two sites; 90% of MPAs are <1 km². Nevertheless, distances between existing MPAs should ensure larval connectivity between them, providing opportunities to develop regional‐scale MPA networks. Despite the considerable success of community‐based approaches to MPA implementation in the Philippines, this strategy will not be sufficient to meet conservation targets, even under a best‐case scenario for future MPA establishment. We recommend that implementation of community‐based MPAs be supplemented by designation of additional large no‐take areas specifically located to address conservation targets.