ANALYSIS OF NEW TECHNIQUES FOR PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT IN WATER PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The growing demands by the public for a more active role in planning have recently generated considerable interest among researchers and planners in the subject of public involvement techniques. Numerous surveys have found that standard public participation techniques (e.g., public hearings) by themselves are considered inadequate. Several techniques that have potential for overcoming some of the limitations of standard public involvement techniques have recently been developed. This paper describes several of these new techniques and analyzes each of them in terms of their potential utility in water resources planning.     

亚热带丘陵小流域土壤有效磷空间变异与淋失风险研究

肥料过施导致的土壤磷素累积和淋失是农业面源污染的重要方面.以湖南省长沙县金井镇脱甲河小流域(52 km2)为研究区,采用高密度布点采样、Arc GIS软件和属性相似反距离加权插值法研究了亚热带丘陵小流域表层(0~20 cm)土壤有效磷(Olsen-P)含量(以P计,下同)的空间分布特征与磷素的淋失风险.结果表明,菜地、果园、稻田和茶园土壤Olsen-P平均含量为62.0、16.1、14.4和13.7 mg·kg-1,是林地(平均含量为2.36 mg·kg-1)的5.8~26.3倍.5个土地利用类型土壤Olsen-P含量均具有高等变异水平和中等程度的空间自相关性(块基比C0/(C0+C)=50%),这与区内地形地貌、土壤母质、人工施肥等具有密切关系.根据土壤0.01 mol·L-1Ca Cl2浸提态P和Olsen-P的非线性关系可确定区内红壤和水稻土P的淋失风险临界值分别为69.97和98.40 mg·kg-1,并据此对脱甲河小流域土壤磷素淋失的风险进行了定量评价,结果表明旱地土壤具有明显较高的淋失风险,其中中等以上的比例占36.4%,而稻田土壤仅有0.2%,为中等以上淋失风险.因此,控制旱地(尤其是菜地)磷肥的投入是降低亚热带丘陵小流域土壤P淋失风险和减轻农业面源污染的关键.     

土地生态安全二维预警模型构建及应用——以临湘市为例

引入生态可持续性指数,在风险矩阵的框架下与土地生态安全指数相结合,构建了土地生态安全二维预警模型,并应用于临湘市土地生态安全预警.研究表明:土地生态安全指数逐年上升,土地生态系统自身稳定性及其对社会经济发展的支撑能力不断提高;生态可持续性指数逐年下降,土地生态系统对社会经济发展的支撑能力的可持续性逐渐减弱,如不采取相应措施,未来将难以避免跌入不可持续状态;2005~2019年土地生态安全警情呈“中警-轻警-中警-轻警”的波折变化,最终稳定为轻警,预测2020~2025年将延续轻警,跌入重警的可能性较小,但仍存在跌回中警的风险.临湘市应通过发展生态友好型产业､加大环保投入､有序扩张第二产业和建设用地､节制消费和应用新技术提高生产力等措施,综合改善土地生态安全状况.研究认为二维预警模型可有效避免传统模型预警失真的问题,有利于提高土地生态安全预警结果的全面性､前瞻性和合理性.     

基于贝叶斯的苯并(α)芘PBPK模型优化与健康风险评估应用

应用基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测苯并(α)芘(BaP)暴露的人体内部剂量,基于贝叶斯的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(MCMC)方法对模型参数进行校准和优化,最后运用已优化的模型对BaP内暴露基准值进行推导.研究发现,基于贝叶斯的MCMC方法对模型后验参数校准后,模型精度明显提高,两个数据集验证结果显示残差平方和分别降低了72%和94%.PBPK模型以BaP和子代谢物3-羟基苯并(α)芘(3-OHBaP)的体内动力学过程为结构基础,模拟BaP体内浓度分布大小为脂肪>肾脏>皮肤>缓慢灌注组织>快速灌注组织>静脉血>肝脏;3-OHBaP体内浓度分布大小为肾脏>快速灌注组织>脂肪>肺>静脉血>缓慢灌注组织>肝脏>皮肤.敏感性分析显示,快速灌注组织-血分配系数对模型输出影响最大,灵敏度系数超过了200%;排泄系数影响最小,只有肾小球过滤率K_BR的灵敏度系数超过了1%.以美国国家环境保护局推荐的参考浓度2.0×10^-6mg/m³为外暴露安全基准值,基于PBPK模型推导了职业暴露的BaP生物监测当量(BE),结果显示BE值为0.405pmol/mol肌酐(尿液3-OHBaP平均浓度),为基于人体内暴露剂量水平进行定量健康风险评估奠定了基础.     

论生态省建设

本文以吉林生态省建设为例,对生态省建设提出了看法和建议。     

延吉市产业结构调整与知识产业发展

延吉市土地面积小 ,水土资源紧张 ,人口与环境压力较大 ,但智力资源丰富。延吉市已经形成以二、三产业为主导的产业体系 ,但产业内部存在结构性问题。文章认为产业结构调整与发展知识产业相结合是实现城市可持续发展的重要途径 ,进而探讨了延吉市产业结构调整思路 ,提出知识产业发展方向。     

基于MIKE 21的长江江山制药排污口水环境影响分析——以江山制药公司污水处理站为例

为分析长江沿岸入河排污口设置对水环境的影响,采用MIKE 21建立了长江马鞍山-高桥段二维非稳态水量水质模型,并以江山制药公司污水处理站为例,对其排污口迁址改建前后的水环境影响进行模拟.结果 表明,较于原排污口排放,拟设排污口在执行新排放标准情况下,对九圩港入江断面水质有改善作用,COD、NH3-N、TP的改善率分别为...     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Mo6+对活性污泥系统反硝化性能的影响

采用对比实验的方法,在不同初始硝酸盐氮和COD质量浓度的条件下,对人工模拟的活性污泥系统投加不同质量浓度的Mo6 ,以此考察Mo6 对活性污泥系统反硝化性能的影响。结果发现,Mo6 的质量浓度小于5mg?L-1以下时能够促进硝酸盐氮的去除,质量浓度为1mg?L-1时促进效果最好。Mo6 的质量浓度在4mg?L-1以下时,可以使COD去除效率增加,质量浓度为2mg?L-1时有最佳促进作用。Mo6 的质量浓度小于1g?L-1时可提高反硝化活性污泥的TTC-脱氢酶活性,过高质量浓度则表现出抑制作用。综合Mo6 的对硝酸盐氮和COD去除的影响规律以及对活性污泥TTC-脱氢酶活性的影响,认为Mo6 在质量浓度为1mg?L-1时对反硝化的促进作用最强。     

Bioaccessibility of arsenic in soils developed over Jurassic ironstones in eastern England

Jurassic ironstones outcropping over parts of eastern England give rise to soils with arsenic concentrations in excess of the UK soil guideline value of 20 mg kg⁻¹ for residential areas. Total arsenic concentrations were determined for 73 ironstone derived soils and bioaccessible arsenic determined using an in vitro physiologically based extraction test. The bioaccessible arsenic concentration for these soils was found to be well below the soil guideline value with a mean concentration of 4 mg kg⁻¹ and a range of 2–17 mg kg⁻¹. The bioaccessible fraction ranges from 1.2 to 33%. Data from a sequential extraction test based on the use of aqua regia as the main extractant is presented for a subset of 20 of the soils. Chemometric data reduction is used to demonstrate that the bioaccessible arsenic is mainly contained within calcium iron carbonate (sideritic) assemblages and only partially iron aluminosilicates, probably berthierine, and iron oxyhydroxide phases, probably goethite. It is suggested that the bulk of the non-bioaccessible arsenic is bound up with less reactive iron oxide phases.