Obstacles to Bottom‐Up Implementation of Marine Ecosystem Management

Abstract: Ecosystem management (EM) offers a means to address multiple threats to marine resources. Despite recognition of the importance of stakeholder involvement, most efforts to implement EM in marine systems are the product of top‐down regulatory control. We describe a rare, stakeholder‐driven attempt to implement EM from the bottom up in San Juan County, Washington (U.S.A.). A citizens advisory group led a 2‐year, highly participatory effort to develop an ecosystem‐based management plan, guided by a preexisting conservation‐planning framework. A key innovation was to incorporate social dimensions by designating both sociocultural and biodiversity targets in the planning process. Multiple obstacles hindered implementation of EM in this setting. Despite using a surrogate scheme, the information‐related transaction costs of planning were substantial: information deficits prevented assessment of some biodiversity targets and insufficient resources combined with information deficits prevented scientific assessment of the sociocultural targets. Substantial uncertainty, practical constraints to stakeholder involvement, and the existence of multiple, potentially conflicting, objectives increased negotiation‐related costs. Although information deficits and uncertainty, coupled with underinvestment in the transaction costs of planning, could reduce the long‐term effectiveness of the plan itself, the social capital and momentum developed through the planning process could yield unforeseeable future gains in protection of marine resources. The obstacles we identified here will require early and sustained attention in efforts to implement ecosystem management in other grassroots settings.     

Predicting Recovery Criteria for Threatened and Endangered Plant Species on the Basis of Past Abundances and Biological Traits

Recovery plans for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act are required to specify measurable criteria that can be used to determine when the species can be delisted. For the 642 listed endangered and threatened plant species that have recovery plans, we applied recursive partitioning methods to test whether the number of individuals or populations required for delisting can be predicted on the basis of distributional and biological traits, previous abundance at multiple time steps, or a combination of traits and previous abundances. We also tested listing status (threatened or endangered) and the year the recovery plan was written as predictors of recovery criteria. We analyzed separately recovery criteria that were stated as number of populations and as number of individuals (population‐based and individual‐based criteria, respectively). Previous abundances alone were relatively good predictors of population‐based recovery criteria. Fewer populations, but a greater proportion of historically known populations, were required to delist species that had few populations at listing compared with species that had more populations at listing. Previous abundances were also good predictors of individual‐based delisting criteria when models included both abundances and traits. The physiographic division in which the species occur was also a good predictor of individual‐based criteria. Our results suggest managers are relying on previous abundances and patterns of decline as guidelines for setting recovery criteria. This may be justifiable in that previous abundances inform managers of the effects of both intrinsic traits and extrinsic threats that interact and determine extinction risk. Predicción de Criterios de Recuperación para Especies de Plantas en Peligro y Amenazadas con Base en Abundancias Pasadas y Atributos Biológicos     

TWO-DIMENSIONAL DIFFUSION-PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF A SLOW DAM BREAK1

ABSTRACT: A two-dimensional model of a dam-break flood wave is developed by simplifying the St. Venant equations to eliminate local acceleration and inertial terms and combining the simplified equations with continuity to form a diffusion type partial differential equation. This model is cascaded with a two point probability estimate scheme to account for uncertainty in the dam break flood hydrograph and channel roughness. The development and application of the probabilistic model is the main contribution of this paper. The approach is applied to a hypothetical dam break of Long Valley Dam on the Owens River above Bishop, California.     

斜剖面图的设计及在PM2.5中期潜势预报中的应用

本文将强降水潜势预报的“配料法”原理引入到环境预报中,选取ECMWF数值预报产品中的700hPa相对湿度、1000hPa风向风速和850hPa温度作为气象要素“配料”,沿占比最多的冷空气输送路径穿过华北重污染区和上海,设计制作了未来10d气象要素“配料”时空斜剖面图,并具体定义了业务中常见的典型污染过程（冷空气输送、干静稳和湿静稳累积）和清洁过程（冷空气清洁、湿沉降清洁）共5种图形的识别特征.该斜剖面图由于融合了单站时序图和单时次空间面图的优点,无需一张张翻阅天气形势图,显著缩短了看图分析时间;斜剖面图还建立了气象要素图形特征、污染气象条件和PM_2.5污染潜势三者的对应关系,通过图形特征可以快速掌握区域内天气形势演变情况,识别出上述典型污染和清洁过程,最终得出PM_2.5中期污染潜势,便于在业务中应用和推广.一次典型污染个例应用显示,斜剖面图和污染实况的图形型态特征非常相似,斜剖面图中静稳累积和冷空气输送过程图形特征辨识度高,区域和单站提前5d的预报结论和实况较为一致;进一步评估显示,2018年冬季期间预报时效5d以内的TS评分维持在0.32~0.50区间,未来10d的预报准确率维持在74.4%~86.7%区间.     

不同生态混凝土坡岸中溶解性有机质与镉的相互作用机理研究

为研究生态混凝土坡岸中DOM(dissolved organic matter,溶解性有机质)与重金属离子的相互作用,通过FQT(fluorescence quenching titration,荧光淬灭滴定)试验配合3D-EEMs(three-dimensional fluorescence spectroscopy,三维荧光光谱)、PARAFAC(parallel factor,平行因子分析)和2D-COS(two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy,二维相关光谱)探究了AEC(applied eco-concrete,应用型生态混凝土)和IEC(improved eco-concrete,改良型生态混凝土)坡岸中DOM与Cd2+的相互作用机理.结果表明:①3D-EEMs结果显示,AEC_ow(AEC坡岸出水)类蛋白组分荧光强度降低,水体腐殖化程度升高,而IEC_ow(IEC坡岸出水) DOM各组分荧光强度均降低;Cd2+能与DOM中所有组分发生络合,且随c(Cd2+)增加,各组分的荧光强度最终趋于稳定.②PARAFAC将所有样品中DOM分离出类蛋白、类富里酸和类腐殖质3个独立组分,其中类富里酸组分随c(Cd2+)增加表现稳定的荧光淬灭效果.③通过Ryan and Weber模型计算Cd2+与DOM中各组分的络合常数(lg K)发现,所有样品中Cd2+与DOM中类富里酸组分的lg K值均大于类蛋白组分.进一步发现,不同坡岸出水lg K值大小依次为RW(原水) > AEC_ow > IEC_ow;④2D-COS分析得出,DOM中类蛋白组分对Cd2+的敏感度最大.RW中Cd2+与DOM位点的络合顺序为340 nm→273 nm→282 nm,AEC_ow中络合顺序为410 nm→330 nm.研究显示:Cd2+率先与DOM中类富里酸、腐殖质类物质络合,且络合能力强,类蛋白物质最容易受Cd2+的干扰;AEC_ow增加了下游水生态系统中Cd2+的迁移风险和生物有效性,相反IEC_ow则降低了Cd2+的迁移风险,两种坡岸均能降低DOM组分与Cd2+的络合能力,其中IEC坡岸最优.      

中国农田畜禽粪尿氮负荷量及其还田潜力

为准确掌握中国各省区畜禽粪尿及氮负荷量,以及还田利用潜力,本研究基于统计数据和已有资料,利用猪粪当量(N)估算了1978年以来中国畜禽粪尿量的变化规律,以及各类畜禽粪尿的构成比例,分析和评价了2016各省份畜禽粪尿、纯氮负荷量的空间分布和污染风险,并估算了各省份畜禽粪尿的还田潜力.结果表明,中国畜禽粪尿猪粪当量(N)及其N养分量总体上呈"快速增加(1978~2005年)-保持稳定(2006~2016年)"的变化态势,到2016年,分别达到366 822.01×10~4t和2 024.10×10~4t,均增长了105.78%,94.03%~98.34%的粪尿量来源于家禽、羊、猪和牛.畜禽粪尿猪粪当量(N)及其N养分量最大的区域是华北地区,其中河南省为最,分别占全国的22.25%和8.81%.其次是四川,占8.14%.按耕地、作物播种面积和农用地面积分别计算单位面积上的畜禽粪尿猪粪当量(N)及其N养分量,并进行r值分级和环境风险评价.如果承载场所为耕地,负荷量较大的是西南和东南地区,污染风险较严重的是华北地区,为Ⅳ级;若按农作物种植面积,西北和西南地区负荷量较大,西北和华北地区为Ⅲ级有污染风险;若按农用地计算,华北和东南地区负荷量较大,华北地区Ⅲ级有污染风险,湖南负荷量最大,北京、山东和河南为Ⅳ级较严重污染风险.全国畜禽粪尿猪粪当量(N)及其N养分还田量分别为113 480.75×10~4t和626.15×10~4t,按单位农用地面积分别相当于3.07 t·hm~(-2)和16.92 kg·hm~(-2),华北地区最大,为8.27t·hm~(-2)和45.62 kg·hm~(-2).若按50%的粪尿N养分环境容量(85 kg·hm~(-2))计算,全国可增加粪尿N养分还田量为2 520.21×10~4t,粮食主产区黑龙江还田潜力最大,其次是四川.     

Training of expatriate refugee health workers: Principles and practices

Abstract—This paper describes in detail the separate components of an ideal expatriate refugee health worker training course. Emphasis is given to organizational aspects of such courses.     

Estimating the Ecological Condition of the Estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico

Monitoring of estuaries in the Louisianian Province was performed annually from 1991–1994 to assess ecological conditions on a regional scale. We found over the four years of monitoring, 25±6% of Gulf of Mexico estuarine sediments in the Louisianian Province displayed poor biological conditions, as measured by benthic community structure, and 14±7% of the area was characterized by poor water clarity, the presence of marine debris, and elevated levels of fish tissue contaminants. Using statistical associations to discern relationships between ecological condition and exposure or stressor data has shown that much of this degraded' condition co-occurs with sediment contamination.     

企业安全资源的资源观分析

依据资源理论对资源优势与竞争优势之间关系的研究成果,笔者提出安全资源优势是企业形成整体资源优势的必备条件之一,良好的安全资源能够为企业创造竞争优势。为此,首先指出,企业的安全意识、安全制度与安全设施等均属企业中的安全资源之列,按照资源理论对企业资源的分类,该类安全资源贯穿于企业的各种资源之中;随后,论述了安全资源与企业中的其他资源一样,具有价值性、稀缺性、不可模仿性和不可替代性等优势资源禀赋;根据资源理论中对竞争优势的经济学解释,分析了安全资源本身,以及安全资源与企业中其他资源的组合使用是如何为企业创造竞争优势的,安全资源优势通过降低企业的长期平均生产成本、延长其他资源的使用寿命从而提高产品产量等途径,能够为企业创造租金,进而形成企业的竞争优势。该论述以全新视角认识企业安全资源,有助于企业改变以往对安全资源建设的错误认识,调动企业对安全资源投资的积极性和主动性     

企业分级监察模型及其应用研究

企业监察级别的划分是有效利用监察资源,提高监察绩效,实现集约型分级安全生产监察的基础.本文通过分析研究,结合我国安全生产现状,综合考虑企业自身特点和行业特性,建立了基于企业职业伤亡统计的分级监察模型,并利用该模型对柳州市502家企业的2005年监察级别进行了划分.最后,对企业分级监察模型研究中存在的问题进行了探讨.