The application of generalized linear mixed models to multi-level sampling for insect population monitoring

Iwao's quadratic regression or Taylor's Power Law (TPL) are commonly used to model the variance as a function of the mean for sample counts of insect populations which exhibit spatial aggregation. The modeled variance and distribution of the mean are typically used in pest management programs to decide if the population is above the action threshold in any management unit (MU) (e.g., orchard, forest compartment). For nested or multi-level sampling the usual two-stage modeling procedure first obtains the sample variance for each MU and sampling level using ANOVA and then fits a regression of variance on the mean for each level using either Iwao or TPL variance models. Here this approach is compared to the single-stage procedure of fitting a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) directly to the count data with both approaches demonstrated using 2-level sampling. GLMMs and additive GLMMs (AGLMMs) with conditional Poisson variance function as well as the extension to the negative binomial are described. Generalization to more than two sampling levels is outlined. Formulae for calculating optimal relative sample sizes (ORSS) and the operating characteristic curve for the control decision are given for each model. The ORSS are independent of the mean in the case of the AGLMMs. The application described is estimation of the variance of the mean number of leaves per shoot occupied by immature stages of a defoliator of eucalypts, the Tasmanian Eucalyptus leaf beetle, based on a sample of trees within plots from each forest compartment. Historical population monitoring data were fitted using the above approaches.     

Characteristics of the Predator–Prey Interactions and the Horizontal Distribution of Macrozoobenthos in Small Lakes of Different Types

The horizontal distribution and quantitative characteristics of macrozoobenthos were studied in small lakes of the Darwin Nature Reserve (southern Vologda oblast). The aggregation index varied in the open areas of acid lakes, which indicated that communities of small acid water bodies were unstable. The aggregation was the lowest in the open area of a neutral lake. In acid lakes, the number and biomass of macroinvertebrates were the highest near the coasts. In the neutral lake, conversely, these values were maximum in open areas and low near the coast due to a strong pressure of predatory invertebrates and fish. An aggregating effect of invertebrate predators was observed near the coasts of lakes of different types.     

山东省主要河流中抗生素污染组成及空间分布特征

采用固相萃取-液相色谱/串联质谱法研究了山东省境内四大流域主要河流中抗生素污染组成及空间分布特征,涉及我国用量最大的6类共20种抗生素。结果表明:20种抗生素均有检出,且大环内酯类、喹诺酮类和四环素类抗生素整体检出浓度较高。就流域而言,半岛诸河流域抗生素污染较小,平均总质量浓度61.4 ng/L;海河流域、小清河流域和淮河流域相对较为严重,平均总质量浓度分别为232、175、118 ng/L。抗生素空间分布呈现一定的规律,检出浓度较高的点位主要集中在人口密集区下游,抗生素污染与周边生活污水、养殖企业废水和城市污水处理厂排水密切相关,而且抗生素组成可从一定程度上反映出污染来源。     

地表水环境遥感监测关键技术与系统

介绍了地表水环境遥感监测的关键技术与系统及其典型应用,其代表性机理模型和应用示范成果主要来自于中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所的高光谱遥感团队在最近几年中取得的一些研究进展,主要包括建立了基于改进双峰法的水体分布自动化遥感提取方法,实现了简单、高效和高精度的水体提取;提出了大型湖泊长时序水量估算方法,并以青藏高原湖区为例,重建了典型湖泊面积、水位和水量序列;发展了基于“软分类”的典型内陆水体叶绿素a浓度反演方法,构建了基于生物光学模型的高度浑浊水体悬浮物浓度遥感反演半解析方法,提高了反演方法的区域和季节适用性;构建了基于水色指数的大范围湖库营养状态和透明度遥感监测方法,实现了全球大型湖库营养状态遥感监测,以及全国大型湖库透明度遥感监测;在此基础上,开发了地表水环境遥感监测系统,提高了水环境遥感监测效率,促进了卫星遥感在水环境监测中的高精度业务化应用。     

Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

家庭农场土地征收补偿问题研究

随着未来家庭农场数量的逐渐增加与经营土地面积的不断扩大,与快速城镇化相伴随的土地征收区域不可避免会与家庭农场经营的土地范围相交叉或重叠。家庭农场主通过整合作为集体经济组织成员分得的承包地和市场化交易获得的承包地实现土地适度规模经营,因此,在家庭农场土地被征收时,应确保家庭农场主获得科学合理的补偿标准,并妥善处理家庭农场主与拥有不同类型农地权利的众多相关主体之间的利益分配关系。本文采用文献资料法和理论分析法,区分点状征地、线状征地和面状征地三种不同情况,分析了家庭农场土地征收的后期生产经营影响,在土地承包关系"长久不变"的政策框架下,深入剖析了家庭农场土地征收涉及的农地权利类型。然后,构建起家庭农场土地征收补偿标准理论模型,以及家庭农场主、政府、集体经济组织、农民等权利主体之间的收益分配理论模型。具体而言,家庭农场主根据自有土地、通过土地流转获得的土地、通过土地退出获得的土地所占的比重以及不同类型土地权利所对应的价值标准分得相应的征地补偿收益;政府通过税收参与征地补偿收益分配;集体经济组织凭借土地所有者身份依法分得相应比例的补偿收益;农民获得的征地补偿收益为承包经营权价值扣除其让渡给家庭农场主的农地权利价值后的剩余部分。最后,本文从四个方面提出了相应的对策和建议:1做好家庭农场发展规划;2提高征地补偿标准并将间接损失纳入补偿范围;3建立家庭农场规模化经营土地的征收补偿收益分配机制;4保障抵押权人(金融机构)对征地补偿享有优先受偿权。     

湿法脱硫系统对烟气中可吸入颗粒物特性影响的实验研究

采用荷电低压颗粒冲击器对4套湿法烟气脱硫(WFGD)系统进出口颗粒物进行在线检测和采样分析,获得烟气中PM10、PM2.5质量浓度以及粒径分布特征,并通过场发射扫描电镜(FESEM)和元素能谱对飞灰颗粒的形貌特征和主要元素含量进行分析。实验结果表明,由于脱硫塔喷淋浆液的洗涤作用,WFGD系统对飞灰颗粒有一定的脱除效果,但喷淋浆液产生的小液滴以及石灰石/石膏颗粒被携带进入烟气,导致WFGD系统对烟气中颗粒物质量浓度及粒径分布影响较大。WFGD系统对飞灰颗粒组成成分也有一定影响,以WFGD系统B为例,出口飞灰颗粒中Ca和S的质量分数从进口的1.60%、2.81%上升到出口的6.12%、10.92%。FESEM观察结果表明,脱硫后小颗粒在脱硫浆液的促进作用下团聚凝并,形成大颗粒,呈现致密的不规则块状、层状或絮状结构。     

300MW燃煤锅炉机组超细颗粒聚并器的实验研究

为了解决燃煤锅炉烟气中超细颗粒难以脱除的问题,基于流体动力学原理设计了一种超细颗粒聚并器,并在300 MW燃煤锅炉机组电除尘器的前置烟道中进行了实验研究。结果表明,聚并器内部存在超细颗粒之间以及超细颗粒与大颗粒之间的相互聚集行为,从而使超细颗粒数量显著减少。例如,对于粒径在2.65和10.48μm以下的颗粒,其体积比例在聚并器出口分别减少了56.7%和62.3%,在电除尘器出口的粉尘浓度减少了26.34 mg/Nm3,这表明,基于流体动力学原理的聚并器对超细颗粒的聚并作用明显,具有良好的应用前景。     

基于支持向量回归机的南黄海浒苔分布面积预测模型

绿潮作为一种新型的海洋灾害,已经引起了各个国家的重视.依据2012年南黄海海域浒苔遥感监测分布面积数据,选取了温度、天气状况、风向、风力、浪高5种影响浒苔扩散的气候因子,建立了基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型,并与经典的最近邻点插值模型、线性插值模型、3次样条函数插值模型和分段3次Hermite插值模型进行了回归效果的对比.分析结果表明,基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型能够为浒苔遥感数据的插补提供一种方法,且回归效果优于传统的回归方法,为浒苔的防治提供辅助决策信息.     

电袋复合除尘器设计若干问题的探讨

介绍了电袋复合除尘器设计过程中烟气量的核实方法、电区与袋区分级效率的确定原则、电区与袋区主要技术参数的确定方法、滤料选取、气流分布要求等内容,对电袋复合除尘器的选择与设计具有一定的参考作用。