准组织化:“互联网+线上应急救援”的实践路径和现实困境*—以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件为例

为响应我国应急管理现代化和信息化建设需要,采用参与式观察、网络民族志和深度访谈方法,从准组织化集体行动视角切入,对河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件中救援模式相对成熟的“互联网+线上应急救援”实践路径和现实困境进行探讨。研究结果表明:线上应急救援实践路径涵盖聚合、运转、高效、离散4个阶段,且以持续不断的行动流呈现,具有准组织化集体行动特征;同时,线上救援形式面临“合法性”不确定、救援质量不稳定、风险评估主观性和政府正式沟通渠道有限性等现实困境,研究结果可为我国应急管理信息化建设提供参考。     

2004年几次台风暴雨Q矢量诊断的比较分析

利用非地转ω方程说明了Q矢量散度的物理意义,并通过计算2004年对浙江省造成重大影响的几个主要台风影响过程中的Q矢量散度场,分析比较了Q矢量散度场在不同等压面和垂直方向上的分布特点及其与台风、暴雨的关系,指出低层等压面上Q矢量散度场的演变对台风暴雨预报的作用.     

台风作用下建筑结构的可靠性评估

台风灾害是给人类造成严重危害的自然灾害之一,台风作用下受灾害最重的往往是沿海广阔的农村地区,本文针对低层建筑结构物,分析了台风造成的危害;分析了台风发生的频率,强度与全球地面平均气温之间的相关关系,统计分的分析了９０１５号与９７１１号台风资料,分别得出它们的风速概率分布与低层建筑结构物的荷载效应概率分布,运用有限元计算和实验比较的方法,得出了三层砖混结构建筑物的抗侧力效应概率分布,最后,利用结构可     

Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a problem-solving scenario approach to enhance risk communication of low probability events, and aims to understand the effects of such an approach. An experiment was conducted in order to understand the comparative effects of presenting a casualty case with photos and demonstrating a problem scenario via an animation of participants’ anticipated responses to a simulated life-or-death choice. Forty-eight and 55 valid samples were collected respectively for two groups of participants. The results reveal a higher proportion of appropriate responses in the group presented with a problem scenario. Gender difference is found in the group exposed to a problem scenario - a larger percentage of males appear to respond more appropriately when presented with a life-threatening scenario without having being told what has happened. Having the ability to drive an automobile, which is presumably relevant to participants’ responses in a scenario associated with driving, does not, however, appear to differ significantly between the groups. The finding suggests that using a problem-solving scenario approach, compared with merely offering potential consequences of risks is more effective in stimulating appropriate responses to prevent casualty for information users.     

热带气旋"碧利斯"与"派比安"灾害成因对比分析

2006年,对广西间接影响的第4号强热带风暴"碧利斯"和正面袭击的第6号台风"派比安",共造成直接经济损失42亿元,占广西全年所有气象灾害造成的直接经济损失的50%。对比分析"碧利斯"与"派比安"的灾害特点与成因,从而可引发对防御措施的思考。     

“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游多维生态位及竞合发展策略研究

构建湛江、茂名、阳江3市和谐的滨海旅游竞合关系是粤西滨海旅游协同一体化高质量发展的重要内涵与实现途径。基于2012—2017年“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游相关统计数据,构建了滨海旅游生态位测评指标体系,运用旅游生态位理论模型综合测评了“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游生态位宽度、扩充度和重叠度,深入分析了“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游产业综合竞争力、竞争态势与竞争程度。结果发现:①“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游生态位宽度呈现“水平低、均衡化”的结构特征,3市滨海旅游产业综合竞争力与影响力弱,旅游综合竞争力从大到小的排序依次为湛江、茂名、阳江。②“湛茂阳”3市滨海旅游综合生态位扩充态势不明显,扩充度水平整体呈现均质化特征,局部存在一定程度的分异。③“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游生态位重叠度高,旅游竞争激烈,旅游协同合作发展水平与效应较低。最后,从区域滨海旅游生态位的协同、错位、扩充3个视角科学提出了“湛茂阳”区域滨海旅游竞合发展策略。     

县域打通“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念转化通道的典型模式研究

“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念是习近平生态文明思想的重要组成部分,具有深刻的哲学内涵,本文利用代表“绿水青山”和“金山银山”的生态与经济指标聚类分析了中国1666个县(市、区),筛选出21个典型地区并分析了其“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念转化路径,总结提出5类典型模式。其中,以浙江省衢州市的6县(市、区)为案例,综合设计衢州市各县(市、区)的“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念转化典型模式实践方案,论证县域典型模式设计方法的适用性。对研究与实践中存在的问题,提出开展生态价值核算、出台县级层面的评价标准和规范、开展试点示范、出台经济激励与优惠政策等建议,进一步深化“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念探索实践。     

Activity and characteristics of “Oxygen-enriched” highly reactive absorbent for simultaneous flue gas desulfurization and denitrification

An “Oxygen-enriched” highly reactive absorbent was prepared by mixing fly ash, lime and a small quantity of KMnO₄ for simultaneous desulfurization and denitrification. Removal of SO₂ and NO simultaneously was carried out using this absorbent in a flue gas circulating fluidized bed (CFB). The highest simultaneous removal efficiency, 94.5% of SO₂ and 64.2% of NO, was achieved under the optimal experiment conditions. Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and Accessory X-ray Energy Spectrometer (EDX) were used to observe the surface characteristics of fly ash, lime, “Oxygen-enriched” highly reactive absorbent and the spent absorbent. An ion chromatograph (IC) and chemical analysis methods were used to determine the contents of sulfate, sulfite, nitrate and nitrite in the spent absorbents, the results showed that sulfate and nitrite were the main products for desulfurization and denitrification respectively. The mechanism of removing SO₂ and NO simultaneously was proposed based on the analysis results of SEM, EDX, IC and the chemical analysis methods.     

秦皇岛沿海灾害性天气对自然环境的影响和预报

风暴潮天气是一种灾害性的自然现象。一般情况下,大于500 km的东到东北大风持续12个小时,且风速大于或等于6级,将在秦皇岛沿海形成风暴潮天气。通过分析引发风暴潮天气的动力条件,风暴潮与台风、温带气旋等天气系统相关联系,再根据天文、潮汐变化、台风、温带气旋24 h诊断预报,判断台风、温带气旋移动径,从而达到准确预报风暴潮天气之目的。分析表明:成灾风暴潮多发生在朔日和望日及其后的5天。     

基于GIS的台风灾害评估系统设计开发

台风是我国东南沿海各省夏秋季中经常遭遇的自然灾害。建立浙江1949年以来的历次台风数据库,并采用ArcGIS作为台风灾害信息及评估系统的平台,进行台风路径的自动生成;相关台风信息的综合查询;雨量等值线以及雨量、风速色块图的绘制与统计;灾害评估模型建立等功能。为灾情的评估和预报,以及为台风灾害的指挥决策提供科学依据。