Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

待产孕妇分娩方式的选择分析

了解医院剖宫产及其特征.方法:回顾性分析2000年1月至2005年12月衡阳市某医院1850例剖宫产产妇的临床资料.结果:6年间剖宫产率分别为:10.78%、12.53%、13.80%、17.38%、19.53%、20.32%,6年间剖宫产特征中,一直以难产为第一位,巨大儿、产妇要求有上升趋势.结论:应对孕妇加强健康教育,减少巨大儿的发生率,同时,应加强围生期保健宣传力度,使家属及产妇正确地认识剖宫产,降低剖宫产率.表3,参7.     

Rehabilitation in Complex Political Emergencies: Is Rebuilding Civil Society the Answer?

The paper examines the challenge of rehabilitation from complex political emergencies (CPEs) and identifies a strategy that is characterised as a civil society rebuilding approach. It focuses on Somalia and a case study of a CARE project that aims to build the capacity of local NGOs. The paper argues that civil society in CPEs is simultaneously being undermined and contested by warring parties and emerging after state collapse. The scope of the paper is limited to one case study and that case study examines only a single aspect of civil society: national and international NGOs. The paper therefore presents tentative and preliminary results based on limited research. However, in reviewing the literature and presenting a way of approaching the subject, it aims to suggest a starting-point for developing a theoretical framework for such research. The paper finds that international agencies have tended to focus on civil society institutions simply as conduits for aid money and that this has tended to create organisations which lack downward accountability, are dependent on donors and are not addressing the wider roles for civil society envisaged in the approach. Rebuilding civil society does hold out the promise of giving non-military interests a stronger voice and starting a process of changing the aid delivery culture. Achieving these objectives, however, will be a slow and largely indigenous process and there is a need for lowered expectations about what outside assistance can achieve     

灾害保险赔案数据库的建立及应用——以湖南省溆浦县保险赔案数据库为例

保险公司的赔案资料记录了保险理赔的货币过程,它是进行保险赔会审计分析和保险出险原因分析最可靠的实证材料。作者利用１９８１～１９９３年湖南省保险公司企业财产险、家庭财产险、货物运输险、种养业险等四个主要保险险种的赔案资料,以行政县,区为基本单元建立了达２３３７６１条记录的灾害保险赔案数据库。以湖南省溆浦县保险公司的赔案数据库为例,对其近１０多年来的保险灾害状况进行了初步分析,为当地保险公司提出了保险防灾防损的理论根据。     

印染废水集中处理工程的实例分析

针对印染企业集中园区产生的综合废水复杂多变,必要选择合式的处理工艺,因此,以某印染企业集中园区的污水处理厂为例,采用厌氧＋好氧＋物化组合工艺,并对废水的脱色和可生化性的改善进行了试验研究,通过类比调查,优化工程设计参数;经工程实践证明,综合印染废水经该工艺处理后,能达到一级排放标准.     

一起苯乙烯槽罐车泄漏的应急监测案例

2007年10月28日凌晨，镇江市环境监测中心站于3：40接到市环保局应急指挥中心关于338省道200km处，发生一起苯乙烯槽罐车泄露的紧急交通事故通知，于是立即启动应急监测响应程序，监测站应急监测小组于4：20到达事故现场，并立即用快速检测装备进行现场定性、定量跟踪监测，及时向现场应急指挥部提供了第一线的监测数据，为污染事故的及时控制与安全处置提供了决策依据。经13个多小时的共同处置，罐内苯乙烯得到安全驳载，肇事车辆被拖离现场，交通也顺利恢复。     

典型异味源的感官特性及特征污染物筛选

为研究不同异味源的感官特性以及不同行业特征污染物的排放差异,以卷烟厂、烘培坊、烤漆厂为研究对象,采用愉悦度9级度量法,测定源样品不同稀释倍数（5~6个浓度梯度）下的愉悦度等级,绘制3种典型异味源愉悦度-臭气浓度指数特征曲线,并进行回归分析,同时筛选出3个典型异味源的特征污染物（烤漆厂的特征污染物为乙酸乙酯、对二乙苯、乙苯、间二甲苯、乙酸丁酯,卷烟厂为乙醇、萘、2-丁酮、柠檬烯、丙烷,烘培坊为乙醇、柠檬烯、α-蒎烯、甲苯、丙酮）,并建立了异味评价干扰潜力的数学模型.结果表明:3种典型异味源的愉悦度与臭气浓度指数之间的关系均符合二次多项式模型,卷烟厂和烤漆厂异味源的愉悦度均为负值,并且厌恶程度随臭气浓度的增大而增强;而烘焙坊异味源的愉悦度为正值.当愉悦度等级为-2时,卷烟厂和烤漆厂对应的臭气浓度分别为30和26.干扰潜力的强弱是由臭气浓度和愉悦度2个因素直接决定的,烤漆厂的干扰潜力为-14.48,卷烟厂为-14.17,烘培坊为11.77.研究显示,愉悦度与臭气浓度指数间量化关系模型以及异味源干扰潜力评估模型的建立,可为异味源的分类分级以及异味源环境影响标准的制订提供科学依据.      

小水电资源区域开发环境影响回顾性评价案例分析——以海南省为例

在小水电资源区域开发规划环境影响报告书编制中应设置小水电资源区域开发环境影响回顾性评价专题,对规划区域小水电资源开发过程产生的环境问题进行调查和回顾性评价,从中发现小水电资源开发存在的环境问题,并提出规避的对策。海南省小水电资源开发规划环境影响报告书小水电资源区域开发环境影响回顾性评价专题案例。通过遥感影像判读及现场调查发现,选址不当、断流、减水、沙化、景观破坏、植被覆盖率降低及外来物种入侵、水土流失、用水矛盾、影响渔业资源等环境问题普遍存在,主要原因是环境行政管理虚位。主要对策有：在小水电资源开发规划及项目可行性研究报告中,应将环境法规符合性及环保投资列为重要内容;实施工程环境监理;加强竣工环保验收;将水电站下泄生态流量等环保措施执行情况的现场检查纳入常态工作范畴。     

聚丙烯酰胺与聚合氯化铝联合投加净化微污染水源水的试验研究

强化混凝是去除水中消毒副产物的最佳方法之一。文章针对强化混凝技术,从净化微污染水源水的角度出发,通过混凝搅拌试验,评价了联合投加聚丙烯酰胺与聚合氯化铝对原水中有机物的去除效果,考察了混凝剂投加量、投加方式等对去除效果的影响。结果表明,联合投加助凝剂和混凝剂有利于水中CODMn及浊度的去除,且可以节省药剂用量,具有进一步试验和推广的价值。     

伊犁河谷典型区域土壤重金属含量状况及评价研究

"十二五"期间自治区加大了对伊犁河谷境内典型生态环境区域集中式饮用水源地土壤、农田、果园、菜地以及昭苏、特克斯和新源三大天然草场土壤汞(Hg)、镉(Cd)、铅(Pb)、砷(As)、铜(Cu)、铬(Cr)、镍(Ni)、锌(Zn)八种重金属元素的监测,通过对上述监测数据的统计分析和评价表明:伊犁河谷典型区域土壤重金属含量均低于《土壤环境质量标准》(GB 15618-1995)(二级、旱地)限值,整体处于清洁安全水平,尚未受到人为显著影响.