重量法测定环境空气中PM2.5的不确定度

依据《环境空气PM10和PM2.5的测定重量法》(HJ 618—2011),对环境空气PM2.5浓度进行重量法手工监测,分析测定过程各环节的影响因素及不确定度,结果显示,影响测定结果的主要因素是采样器、滤膜、天平精确度。     

硝酸银标准滴定溶液的不确定度评定

在掌握JJF1059-1999的基础上，对硝酸银标准滴定溶液浓度的不确定度进行评定，主要从方法概述、确定测量中不确定度的来源、建立数学模型、计算相对标准不确定度分量、合成相对标准不确定度、扩展不确定度等入手，详细介绍了硝酸银标准滴定溶液的不确定度评定过程。     

紫外分光光度法测定水中总氮的不确定度评定

运用测量不确度评定的基本方法和程序,分析影响紫外分光光度法测定总氮的不确定度的各种因素,建立数学模型,合成计算总氮的不确定度。     

Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

An Inexact Fuzzy-robust Two-stage Programming Model for Managing Sulfur Dioxide Abatement Under Uncertainty

In this study, an inexact fuzzy-robust two-stage programming (IFRTSP) method is developed for tackling multiple forms of uncertainties that can be expressed as discrete intervals, probabilistic distributions and/or fuzzy membership functions. The model can reflect economic penalties of corrective measures against any infeasibilities arising due to a particular realization of system uncertainties. Moreover, the fuzzy decision space can be delimited into a more robust one with the uncertainties being specified through dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control has been studied to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Results indicate that useful solutions for planning the air quality management practices have been generated. They can help decision makers identify desired pollution-abatement strategy with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.     

臭氧前驱体物监测用氮气中多组分VOCs气体标准物质的研制

介绍了瓶装1μmol/mol臭氧前驱体物监测用氮气中57组分挥发性有机物(VOCs)气体标准物质的研制过程,该气体标准物质严格按照《气体分析 校准用混合气体的制备 第1部分:称量法制备一级混合气体》(GB/T 5274.1-2018)所规定的配制气体标准物质的方法采用称量法制备。建立了GC-MS联用结合选择离子扫描(SIM)的分析方法,研究了目标化合物在气瓶中的均匀性和稳定性。57种目标化合物完全满足美国环保署光化学评估监测站(PAMS)关于臭氧前驱体物VOCs在线监测的技术要求。将气体标准物质分别送至中国环境监测总站和英国国家物理实验室(NPL)进行比对分析,结果良好,表明研制的气体标准物质具有较好的压力均匀性和稳定性,符合使用要求。相对扩展不确定度为5%(k=2),使用有效期为1年,取得国家二级标准物质证书,证书编号为GBW(E)083966。     

Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change: A survey of approaches and findings

The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate.     

Social goals and the valuation of natural capital

Valuation ultimately refers to the contribution of an item to meeting a specific goal or objective. Conventional economic valuation is based on the goal of allocative efficiency. But other social goals may be equally, if not more, important. For example, the goals of social fairness and ecological sustainability have been identified as being at least of the samelevel of importance as allocative efficiency. This paper looks atthe role of social goals in determining the basis for valuation ofnatural capital and ecosystem services, and sketches the characteristics of a system of valuation that would give equal weight to all three of the major social goals mentioned above. It also places these goals within a more comprehensive conceptualmodel of the economy and its relationship to the ecological lifesupport system in which it is embedded.     

快速凯氏定氮仪与纳氏试剂光度法测定NH3-N的精密度及总不确定度比较

通过对实际水样中NH3-N的测定结果的精密度及总不确定度检验,比较快速凯氏定氮法和纳氏试剂光度法测试结果,置信概率为95%.双侧DIXON检验、精密度和不确定度检验,结果表明,两方法测定结果之间不存在显著性差异,具有一致性.     

不确定性流域污染负荷优化分配模型及其应用

流域优化决策模型以最优化建模方法指导流域管理决策过程,然而流域系统的不确定性会导致决策存在一定风险.本研究通过建立区间参数机会约束线性规划(ICILP)模型来处理流域决策过程中的不确定性,并将该模型运用于太滆运河流域优化决策中,探讨在不同违反概率下系统最优解.结果表明,随着允许入湖量约束违反概率增加,系统对污染物削减量和削减成本有所降低.由于受到经济成本和削减量约束,系统优先减小环境代价较大、削减效率较低的工程项目规模.但受到最低处理率约束,违反概率增加到一定水平时各工程项目趋于定值.虽然较高的违反概率使系统成本降低,但也会导致削减效率降低,不利于流域保护.因此,在实际管理中应根据管理需求选择合适的削减方案以达到保护流域水质的目标.