消费者对不同层次安全信息可追溯猪肉的支付意愿研究

为满足消费者猪肉安全需求,防范猪肉的安全风险,国家商务部等从2010年开始分批选择若干个城市实施肉类可追溯体系.可追溯猪肉能否有效推广内在地取决于消费者的支付意愿.本文基于随机n价实验拍卖方法,对江苏无锡市区272位消费者对具有不同层次安全信息的三种类型可追溯猪肉的支付意愿进行了研究,结果表明,参与者愿意为具有可追溯属性的猪后腿肉支付一定的溢价,且对具有养殖信息与政府认证信息的可追溯猪后腿肉具有更高的支付意愿;而进一步运用MVP模型的研究证实,消费者对三种不同层次安全信息属性的可追溯猪后腿肉的偏好具有差异性.因此,政府完善猪肉可追溯体系并与政府认证机制相结合是满足消费者对不同层次安全信息的可追溯猪肉的市场需求,促进可追溯食品推广普及的重要路径.     

Application of Remote Sensing Detection and GIS in Analysis of Vegetation Pattern Dynamics in the Yellow River Delta

Regional vegetation pattern dynamics has a great impact on ecosystem and climate change. Remote sensing data and geographical information system （GIS） analysis were widely used in the detection of vegetation pattern dynamics. In this study, the Yellow River Delta was selected as the study area. By using 1986, 1993, 1996, 1999 and 2005 remote sensing data as basic information resource, with the support of GIS, a wetland vegetation spatial information dataset was built up. Through selecting the landscape metrics such as class area （CA）, class percent of landscape （PL）, number of patch （NP）, largest patch index （LPI） and mean patch size （MPS） etc., the dynamics of vcgetation pattern was analyzed. The result showed that the change of vegetation pattern is significant from 1986 to 2005. From 1986-1999, the area of the vegetation, the percent of vegetation, LPI and MPS decreased, the NP increased, the vegetation pattern tends to be fragmental. The decrease in vegetation area may well be explained by the fact of the nature environment evolution （Climate change and decrease in Yellow River runoff） and the increase in the population in the Yellow River Delta. However, from 1999 2005, the area of the vegetation, the percent of vegetation, LPI and MPS increased, while the NP decreased. This trend of restoration may be due to the implementation of water resources regulation for the Yellow River Delta since 1999.     

Application of Remote Sensing Detection and GIS in Analysis of Vegetation Pattem Dynamics in the Yellow River Delta

Regional vegetation pattem dynamics has a great im- pact on ecosystem and climate change.Remote sensing data and geographical information system (GIS) analysis were widely used in the detection of vegetation pattern dynamics.In this study,the Yellow River Delta was selected as the study area.By using 1986, 1993,1996,1999 and 2005 remote sensing data as basic informa- tion resource,with the support of GIS,a wetland vegetation spa- tial information dataset was built up.Through selecting the land- scape met...     

酸沉降对森林生长固碳和土壤盐基保持功能的影响

在森林土壤酸化过程空间信息模型和森林植被生产力空间信息模型的基础上,耦合了森林水土保持、森林涵养水源、森林生长固碳、森林土壤盐基保持4个空间信息子模型,构建了森林生态效益空间信息模型.选取贵州省龙里地区作为试验点,运用遥感和地理信息系统技术获取模型参数,定量模拟了不同酸沉降条件下森林保土、保水、生长固碳、土壤盐基保持4种生态功能,并利用替代价值法对4种生态功能进行了货币化评定.本文主要介绍森林生长固碳、森林土壤盐基保持两个子模型及其生态效益评价.经研究森林生长固碳、土壤盐基保持效益远大于森林的林木价值,约为林木价值的10倍.森林不同生态功能受酸雨的破坏程度不同,若2007年酸雨pH值下降1.0,则在29km2的面积上森林生长固碳和土壤盐基保持生态效益损失达165万元,平均每km2面积上损失为5.7万元.     

突发事件下人群应急信息传播策略推演方法研究*

为提升突发事件预警信息传播能力,拓宽预警信息传播渠道,增强预警信息传播多元化特征,提出群体内个体传播影响力评估方法及应急信息传播模式制定方法,并基于网络分析与多智能体建模,研究群体应急信息传播策略制定方法与有效性分析手段,重点阐述方法实施路径与应用方向。研究结果可用于制定基于社会网络的应急信息传播策略,并通过多智能建模对应急信息传播情景进行有效性推演。     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟的高校室内甲醛暴露健康风险评价

为了量化分析高校新建教学楼室内环境污染引起的健康风险问题,调查了武汉市某高校新建教学楼室内甲醛污染状况,引入美国环保署(EPA)致癌风险模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟室内甲醛暴露对不同性别的教师和学生受体造成的健康风险,进行不确定性分析,并研究各参数敏感度。结果表明,该教学楼室内的监测点监测得到的甲醛质量浓度数据中有5%超过标准限值(0.10 mg/m³,参照《室内空气质量标准》),存在一定的健康风险。健康风险评估结果显示,男性的癌症风险和超标率略高于女性,教师群体健康风险平均值超过限值(1×10^-6)9倍左右,且高于学生群体3~4倍。对教师造成影响最大的参数为暴露时间,对学生影响最大的参数为甲醛质量浓度,在无致癌风险的室内甲醛质量浓度和在可接受健康风险限值(1×10^-6)下,推荐教师每日平均暴露时间不超过0.31 h/d(男性)和0.35 h/d(女性)。     

深圳地区全氟辛烷磺酸的环境多介质迁移和归趋行为研究

为探究全氟辛烷磺酸(perfluorooctane sulfonate,PFOS)在深圳地区的环境多介质迁移和归趋行为,本研究利用LevelⅢ逸度模型,通过输入PFOS的物理化学性质参数和深圳地区环境参数,首先模拟计算了深圳地区大气、水体、土壤和沉积物中PFOS的含量并用实测数据进行验证,其次基于PFOS在各相间的迁移通量分析确定了其主要的迁移途径及归趋行为,最后对模型的输入参数和输出结果分别进行了灵敏度和不确定度分析.结果表明,大气、水体、土壤和沉积物中的PFOS模拟含量分别为1.4 pg·m~(-3)、7.0 ng·L~(-1)、0.39μg·kg~(-1)和0.11μg·kg~(-1),和实测结果较吻合.气相到土相、土相到水相和气相到水相的迁移量分别占PFOS相间总迁移量的32%、32%和5.8%,是PFOS相间的主要迁移途径,而PFOS随水体迁出是其从区域环境迁出的主要途径.大气和水体的平流输入速率、温度、PFOS的水溶性和降雨,以及土壤和沉积物的密度是影响模型输出结果的关键参数.不确定度分析结果则表明PFOS含量在水体中的变异系数最小而在土壤中的最大,这可能是由土壤易于变化的有机碳含量造成的.     

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.     

When information becomes action: drivers of individuals' trust in broadcast versus peer‐to‐peer information in disaster response

Information and communications technology (ICT), primarily mobile telephones and social media, is increasingly important in crisis and disaster response in developing countries. This fact raises an important question: in an information environment that includes traditional media such as radio and television, who are the people that trust information from ICT enough to act on it during a disaster? Drawing on a case study of and original survey data from the island nation of the Independent State of Samoa, this paper yields insights into who uses new technologies, particularly mobile telephones, to make decisions at the local level during crises such as natural disasters, as well as the socio‐political factors that motivate their behaviour. The results add to the growing pool of knowledge on utilisation of ICT and new technologies in developing countries for disaster response, and provide practical information on the social and political factors that lead people to trust different information sources and media.     

Adaptation to coastal hazards: the livelihood struggles of a fishing community in Kerala,India

This case study examines the coastal hazard adaptation strategies of a fishing community in a village in Kerala, India. It shows that formal adaptation strategies are highly techno‐centric, costly, and do not take into account the vulnerabilities of the fishing community. Instead, they have contributed to ecological, livelihood, and knowledge uncertainties. The adaptation strategies of the fishing community are a response to these uncertainties. However, they may not lead to the fishing community's recovery from its vulnerability contexts. This case study is primarily qualitative in nature. Data were collected through in‐depth interviews. Insights reveal that when actors with diverse values, interests, knowledge, and power evolve or design their respective adaptation strategies, the resulting interface often aggravates existing uncertainties associated with hazards. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that local discourses on coastal hazards are livelihood‐centric and socially constructed within the struggle of the fishing community to access resources and to acquire the right to development.