Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Are the costs worth the benefits? Shared perception and the aggregation of organizational climate ratings

A definitional component of organizational climate is the focus on employees' shared perceptions of the focal climate domain. To operationalize the notion of sharedness, researchers typically aggregate employees' domain‐specific climate perceptions to a higher level and justify this aggregation using quantitative indices of agreement. In the current paper, I argue that although accounting for sharedness among employees can provide some valuable insight, our overreliance on sharedness obscures some of the very organizational phenomena of interest. I discuss this issue by focusing on four costs of making unfounded assumptions regarding sharedness: (a) Aggregation assumes individual differences are a function of random error; (b) aggregation assumes that social situations are uniform across employees; (c) aggregation assumes that the unit of analysis is clear‐cut; and (d) aggregation assumes the group mean is meaningful. I argue that researchers carefully need to weigh the costs of violating these assumptions against the expected benefits of aggregating employees' climate perceptions, recognizing that sometimes employees' perceptions (i.e., psychological climate) might provide greater insight into phenomena of interest. Although I discuss these costs within the context of organizational climate research, these arguments apply to other research areas where individual perceptions are aggregated (e.g., research on leadership and teams).     

某型机车牵引电机传动端轴承低速轻载无飞溅润滑试验研究

主要根据客户要求,在低速(1 km/h)及轻载工况下,测量传动端轴承无飞溅润滑条件下的温升等参数,而进行相关的电机试验,为某型机车牵引电机传动端轴承在低速及轻载工况下,无飞溅润滑提供试验验证及技术支撑。     

Interactions between Carbon Sequestration and Shade Tree Diversity in a Smallholder Coffee Cooperative in El Salvador

Agroforestry systems have substantial potential to conserve native biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. In particular, agroforestry systems have the potential to conserve native tree diversity and sequester carbon for climate change mitigation. However, little research has been conducted on the temporal stability of species diversity and aboveground carbon stocks in these systems or the relation between species diversity and aboveground carbon sequestration. We measured changes in shade‐tree diversity and shade‐tree carbon stocks in 14 plots of a 35‐ha coffee cooperative over 9 years and analyzed relations between species diversity and carbon sequestration. Carbon sequestration was positively correlated with initial species richness of shade trees. Species diversity of shade trees did not change significantly over the study period, but carbon stocks increased due to tree growth. Our results show a potential for carbon sequestration and long‐term biodiversity conservation in smallholder coffee agroforestry systems and illustrate the opportunity for synergies between biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Interacciones entre el Secuestro de Carbono y la Diversidad de Árboles de Sombra en una Cooperativa de Café de Pequeños Agricultores en El Salvador     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

308 nm光作用下α-Fe2O3表面HNO3的光解

采用紫外可见光谱(UV-Vis)、傅立叶变换红外光谱(FTIR)及离子色谱(IC)技术对HNO3在α-Fe2O3表面暗反应和308nm下光解反应进行了研究.考察了时间、HNO3浓度、相对湿度(RH)等条件对反应的影响.结果表明,随着HNO3浓度、光照时间的增加,HNO3在气相与α-Fe2O3表面光解产物浓度均呈指数增加;HNO3在α-Fe2O3表面光解产生的NO2、NO分别为气相产生的3.27及3.87倍,而无论气相还是表面光解的NO2浓度均约为NO的2倍.随着RH的增加,HNO3光解产生的HONO的浓度随之呈指数增大,其产率从RH 20%时的0.023增加到90%时的0.087.α-Fe2O3的表面效应在HNO3的表面光解反应中起主导作用.     

中国城市热岛时空特征及其影响因子的分析

全球气候变暖背景下,城市热岛效应会加重城市地区的热胁迫,对人类健康和生存发展提出严峻挑战.近年来我国雾-霾污染情况严重,但雾-霾对城市热岛影响的认识仍较匮乏.本研究基于MODIS遥感卫星地表温度数据,明确了我国2003~2013年白天、夜间以及四季城市热岛的空间变化,并从生物物理学和生物化学角度定量分析其控制机制.结果表明,影响我国白天城市热岛强度的主要因素为人口、农田灌溉和植被活动.纬度、降水量、反照率以及气溶胶浓度是夜间城市热岛强度的主控因子.从对比城乡粗糙度、反照率等生物物理学属性的角度,揭示了乡村背景环境对城市热岛分析的重要影响.结果表明,雾-霾治理可以缓解我国夜间城市热岛现象和热胁迫,有利于缓解区域甚至全球气候变化.     

缙云山土地利用方式对土壤轻组及颗粒态有机碳氮的影响

选取缙云山阳坡同一海拔处亚热带常绿阔叶林(以下简称林地)、果园、坡耕地和撂荒地这4种不同土地利用类型,在0~60 cm深度内每隔10 cm采集一个土样,测定土壤轻组有机碳氮(LFOC、LFON)和颗粒态有机碳氮(POC、PON)含量,并计算其分配比例和碳氮比.结果表明,在0~60 cm土壤深度范围内,林地转变为坡耕地后,LFOC及LFON含量分别降低了71.42%和38.46%(P0.05),转变为果园后变化不明显,坡耕地撂荒后其含量分别升高了3.77倍和1.38倍(P0.05);林地转变为坡耕地或果园后,POC及PON含量均无明显变化,而坡耕地撂荒后其含量分别增加了4.12和1.25倍(P0.05).林地转变为坡耕地后土壤LFOC及LFON分配比例显著降低,转变为果园后则明显升高,而POC及PON分配比例变化均不明显;坡耕地撂荒后,LFOC、LFON、POC、PON分配比例均显著增加.土壤SOC/TN为撂荒地(12.93)林地(8.53)果园(7.52)坡耕地(4.40),LFOC/LFON为撂荒地(16.32)林地(14.29)果园(11.32)坡耕地(7.60),POC/PON为撂荒地(23.41)坡耕地(13.85)林地(10.30)果园(9.64).以上研究结果表明林地开垦为果园或坡耕地后容易导致土壤轻组有机碳氮的损失,而坡耕地撂荒则有利于土壤活性有机碳氮的积累;林地转变为坡耕地减弱了土壤有机碳氮的活性,而林地转变为果园以及坡耕地撂荒均使土壤有机碳氮活性增强;林地转变为坡耕地和果园加剧了土壤有机质的矿化,相对而言,坡耕地撂荒后有利于土壤有机质的固定.     

β-In2S3的制备及其太阳光下降解土霉素

利用水热反应法制备β-In2S3纳米颗粒光催化剂,并利用SEM、TEM和XRD等对其进行分析表征;采用土霉素溶液模拟四环素类抗生素废水,探讨In2S3对土霉素的降解效果.结果表明,β-In2S3为立方相纳米颗粒结构,该纳米颗粒由纳米片组成,直径约15~30 nm.以太阳光为辐射光源,In2S3对土霉素具有良好的光催化降解效果,在4 h内对初始浓度为30 mg·L-1的土霉素降解率可达98%以上.降解土霉素后的催化剂在无水乙醇中清洗并烘干,经4次循环利用后,β-In2S3的降解能力仍能达到85%以上,表明β-In2S3光催化剂具有良好的稳定性以及光催化活性.     

模拟气候升温对湿地土壤微生物群落及磷素形态的影响

通过构建微宇宙湿地柱模拟气候升温的方法,采用高通量测序和核磁共振技术,分别研究了湿地土壤微生物群落和磷素形态对暖化作用的响应特征.结果表明,暖化作用导致了Firmicutes、Clostridia、Clostridiales、Clostridiaceae和Clostridium的相对丰度分别显著下降65%~98%、69%~87%、67%~87%、73%~97%和74%~93%,这表明暖化作用对不同分类水平上的物种Firmicutes到Clostridium具有显著的抑制效应.通过主坐标分析和聚类分析,不同湿地柱采样点的暖化组与对照组样本表现出显著的分离特征,揭示了暖化作用能够诱导微生物群落组成发生显著性变化.磷酸单酯和正磷酸盐是各湿地柱土壤主导的磷素形态,同时暖化作用导致了XX湿地柱采样点的磷酸单酯和正磷酸盐相对丰度分别显著升高275%和下降20%,JH湿地柱采样点的磷酸单酯和多聚磷酸盐相对丰度分别显著升高85%和下降49%,这表明不同磷素形态对暖化作用的响应具有土壤异质性特征.通过典型对应分析,揭示了暖化条件下微生物群落组成的显著变化对磷素形态具有显著的影响效应.