基于GM(1,1)模型的军用车辆交通事故预测研究

在分析军用车辆交通事故预测技术重要性的基础上,根据2005—2009年的军用车辆交通事故原始数据,建立军车交通事故的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。对军用车辆交通事故起数和死亡人数进行短期预测,并通过实例验证预测模型的适用性。通过模型验证结果可以看出:GM(1,1)模型预测所得数据较为精确。预测结论如下:未来几年,军车交通事故会稳步下降,事故发生次数会快速减少,但死亡人数相对减少较缓。     

某整车制造企业清洁生产审核案例分析

以某整车制造企业清洁生产审核项目为例,通过对照涂装行业清洁生产评价指标体系,对该汽车制造企业开展清洁生产审核,结合审核过程中发现的清洁生产潜力,提出方案以提高企业的清洁生产水平。     

Marketing and alcohol-related traffic fatalities: Impact of alcohol advertising targeting minors

Problem

Alcohol-related youth traffic fatalities continue as a major public-health concern. While state and federal laws can be useful in tackling this problem, the efficacy of many laws has not been empirically demonstrated. We examined the impact of state laws prohibiting alcohol advertising to target minors. Method: Using statistics obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), youth alcohol-related, single-vehicle, driver traffic fatalities were compared by state as a function of whether the state has a law prohibiting alcohol advertising that targets minors. Results: Overall, states possessing this law experienced 32.9% fewer of the above specified traffic fatalities. Discussion and Impact on Industry: The results suggest that not only are youth drinking rates affected by alcohol advertisements targeting youth, but also drink-driving behaviors. Indeed, we estimate that if this type of legislation were adopted in the 26 states that do not prohibit targeting of minors with alcohol advertising, then 400 youth lives could be saved annually.     

Characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and Their Sources in the Air of Izmir, Turkey

Air samples were collected in Izmir, Turkey at two (suburban and urban) sites during three sampling programs in 2002 and 2004 to determine the ambient concentrations of several monoaromatic, chlorinated and oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Samples were analyzed for 60 VOCs using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and 28 compounds were detected in most samples. On the average, urban air VOC concentrations were about four times higher than those measured at the suburban site. Toluene (40.6%) was the most abundant compound in suburban site and was followed by benzene (7.4%), o,m-xylene (6.5%), and 1,2-dichloroethane (5.1%). In urban site, toluene (30.5%), p-xylene (14.9%), o,m-xylene (11.4%), and ethyl benzene (7.2%) were the dominating compounds in summer. In winter, toluene (31.1%), benzene (23.9%), 1,2-dichloroethane (9.5%), and o,m-xylene (8.2%) were the most abundant compounds. Receptor modeling (positive matrix factorization) has been performed to estimate the contribution of specific source types to ambient concentrations. Six source factors (gasoline vehicle exhaust, diesel vehicle exhaust+residential heating, paint production/application, degreasing, dry cleaning, and an undefined source) were extracted from the samples collected in the urban site. Three source factors (gasoline vehicle exhaust, diesel vehicle exhaust, and paint production/application) were identified for the suburban site.     

Driving difficulties as reported by older drivers with mild cognitive impairment and without neurological impairment

Objective: Considerable evidence indicates that medical conditions prevalent among older individuals lead to impairments in visual, cognitive, or psychomotor functions needed to drive safely. The purpose of this study was to explore the factors determining driving difficulties as seen from the viewpoint of 30 older drivers with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 30 age-matched controls without cognitive impairment.

Methods: Perceptions of driving difficulties from both groups were examined using data from an extensive questionnaire. Samples of drivers diagnosed with MCI and age-matched controls were asked to report the frequency with which they experienced driving difficulties due to functional deficits and knowledge of new traffic rules and traffic signs.

Results: The analysis revealed that 2 factors underlie MCI perceptions of driving difficulties, representing (1) difficulties associated with late detection combined with slowed response to relevant targets in the peripheral field of view and (2) difficulties associated with divided attention between tasks requiring switching from automatic to conscious processing particularly of long duration. The analysis for healthy controls revealed 3 factors representing (1) difficulties in estimating speed and distance of approaching vehicles in complex (attention-dividing) high-information-load conditions; (2) difficulties in moving head, neck, and feet; and (3) difficulties in switching from automatic responses to needing to use cognitive processing in new or unexpected situations.

Conclusions: Though both group analyses show difficulties with switching from automatic to decision making, the difficulties are different. For the control group, the difficulty in switching involves switching in new or unexpected situations associated with high-information-load conditions, whereas this switching difficulty for the MCI group is associated with divided attention between easier tasks requiring switching. These findings underline the ability of older drivers (with MCI and without cognitive impairment) to indicate probable impairments in various driving skills. The patterns of difficulties perceived by the MCI group and the age-matched healthy control group are indicative of demanding driving situations that may merit special attention for road designers and road safety engineers. They may also be considered in the design of older drivers’ fitness to drive evaluations, training programs, and/or vehicle technologies that provide for older driver assistance.     

A comparative decision-making model for sustainable end-of-life vehicle management alternative selection using AHP and extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP

Environmental protection and sustainable development are getting increasing attention in the automobile industries. Environmental consciousness has increased, and sustainability has become an important requirement for the management of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). The proper management of ELVs can bring improved sustainability performance for any society or organisation. There are several alternative options for ELVs management such as reuse, repair, reconditioning, remanufacturing and recycling. Environmental legislation is forcing original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to manage their products at the end of their life cycle to reduce their potential environmental impact. An appropriate selection model for sustainable ELV management alternatives in the dynamic, competitive and regulatory environment can enable a firm to satisfy economic, environmental, social and technological requirements. This study proposes an integrated model to select the dimensions and criteria for evaluating sustainable alternatives for the proper management of ELVs. First, the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to select the most important dimensions and criteria for sustainable alternative selection. Next, a hierarchy has been constructed to develop a systematic technique to solve the alternatives selection problem. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and extent analysis method on the fuzzy AHP (FEAHP) model have been used based on the hierarchy to evaluate the most suitable alternatives from the sustainability point of view. The strength of the proposed model is that it compares the results of both methods, the imprecision of experts’ opinions is considered in the evaluation process and the model is easy to use.     

VMT reduction and potential environmental effects with a tradable credits scheme: a simulation case study of Great Britain

We investigate the influence of a tradable credits scheme (TCS) on travel demand and vehicle emissions, based on the vehicle miles travelled (VMT). With a microeconomic quantitative analysis scheme, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function is used as an approach to model the annual mileage for different travel purposes. An illustration is given for the effects of a TCS on emission mitigation based on historical data for Great Britain. A scenario analysis demonstrates that a TCS can achieve a target for reducing the number of private trips. Besides a movement of trips from the private car mode to public modes, there is also some trip restraint, with individuals choosing not to take some trips. Compared with Fowkes et al.’s research on road pricing in London, the research illustrates that a TCS can be designed to have similar effects to a road pricing scheme. We also demonstrate that a TCS could bring emission changes arising from changes in VMT.     

京津冀地区机动车细颗粒物污染的健康影响分析

机动车尾气排放对城市空气污染的影响日益严峻，而对特定污染源大气污染排放特征及健康影响进行评估可以为环境空气质量管理提供科学依据.以PM_2.5为研究对象，分析京津冀地区2010～2020年机动车污染排放特征、导致的健康效应与经济损失.结果表明，2010～2020年间京津冀地区机动车PM_2.5排放量呈现先逐年递增后缓慢下降的趋势；不同车型污染物排放贡献率显示，重型货车和重型客车为PM_2.5主要贡献车型；不同城市机动车污染物排放特征存在差异，北京市污染物贡献率下降幅度明显，其余城市污染减排也不容忽视.机动车PM_2.5污染对人群健康影响的评估结果表明，京津冀地区各健康终端发生人数总体呈上升趋势，其中，2020年PM_2.5污染造成约34 337人(95%CI:9 025～57 209人)早逝、4.55万人(95%CI:1.08～8.02万人)住院、 28.23万人(95%CI:14.05～41.63万人)门诊及43.90万人(95%CI:16.03～67.92万人)患病；研究期间(201...     

城轨车辆的试验设施

城轨车辆制造完成后,应按国际电工标准IEC61133进行型式试验与例行试验.本文介绍了国外完成这些试验所具备的试验设施,包括维也纳的车辆环境试验中心,西门子公司的牵引系统试验中心及庞巴迪包岑工厂的车辆试验设施.     

道路车辆电子电器设备的凝露试验

ISO16750-4:2010(3Ed)道路车辆电气及电子设备的环境条件和试验气候负荷增加了凝露试验.就凝露试验,介绍一些标准起草中的技术背景和标准文字中的未尽之言;也指出一些试验实践中应予把握的要点.