Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.     

Microstructure of 2205 duplex stainless steel joint in submerged arc welding by post weld heat treatment

The 2205 duplex stainless steel (DSS) is of both good properties austenitic steel and ferritic steel, which applies to the shipbuilding industry usually. In this paper, the OM, XRD and microhardness test methods are used to analyze the variation of submerged arc welded (SAW) joints with and without post weld heat treatment (PWHT). The research results show that the σ phase disappear in the fusion edge zone near heat affect zone (HAZ) and an increase in the welded center zone during the follow-up PWHT, while the amount of γ phase is decreased in the welded center zone with PWHT. A segregation distribution of some second phases is also found in the welded center zone after PWHT. There have two pick values of microhardness arise in the fusion edge zone and the welded center zone separately without PWHT. However, a maximum value of microhardness at the fusion edge zone near HAZ is disappeared and the other is still held at the welded center zone during PWHT. It can be attributed to the changes of second phases, element diffusions and particle segregation during PWHT. A developing mechanism is issued to demonstrate the second phases transferring of the 2205 DSS SAW joints by PWHT.     

Improvement of welding heat source models for TIG-MIG hybrid welding process

Tungsten inert gas-metal inert gas (TIG-MIG) hybrid welding process is an effective way to improve welding productivity and quality due to advantages of the two processes. Mathematical analysis is crucial to fundamentally understand this synergetic welding process. In this study, based on experimental visualization of arc behaviors, some assumptions are proposed to deduce adaptive plane and volumetric heat source models separately for each involved welding method first. The influence of torch angles on distribution of temperature and geometry of weld bead are calculated and compared with experimental results. It shows that this developed algorithm of heat source can be employed to accurately predict welding process whether the electrode gun is slanted backward or forward to the direction of welding. Then TIG-MIG hybrid welding process is simulated and analyzed without considering the attractive or repulsive force of two arcs. The characteristic of TIG-MIG welding process is discussed compared to single MIG. It lays the foundation for the further research on the interaction of the two arcs during TIG-MIG hybrid welding.     

基于兵棋推演理论的城市危机应急管理体系设计

随着经济的发展、城市化进程的加快,城市危机的危害程度日益加剧。基于我国城市危机应急管理总存在的不足,提出将兵棋推演运用到城市危机应急管理中,结合兵棋推演技术、地理信息系统、现代计算机技术和信息技术。提出了一套城市危机应急管理体系框架,并讨论了该系统与城市公共安全体制的融合机制问题。该系统汇集中外危机处置案例,实现动态推演,弥补以往剧本式的应急演练的缺欠,为提高城市危机应急调度指挥的快速性、准确性和科学性,有效整合现有应急救援力量和资源提供了有效的辅助手段,为提升城市危机应急管理决策水平和综合能力提供参考。     

不同碳源在污水处理过程中的变化规律研究

通过对A2/O污水处理工艺长期的分析监测,探明了城市污水处理厂原水中有机物不同生物降解性及碳源赋存形态比例.原水中大部分有机物以颗粒态存在,占进水有机物的61%.原水中快速、慢速、难生物降解有机物比例分别为15.8%、54.2%和30%,快速生物降解有机物主要以溶解态存在,慢速生物降解有机物则主要以颗粒态存在.通过快速、慢速生物降解有机物的沿程监测分析,明确了两种碳源在污水处理过程中的变化规律,厌氧池与缺氧池内均存在微生物水解发酵引起的慢速生物降解有机物的转化作用,其中厌氧反应池的转化效率最高.分析计算了污水处理过程中不同碳源的转化,明确了快慢速有机物在各单元的转化和利用情况,结果指出,2 h内慢速生物降解有机物在厌氧池与好氧池转化率分别为33%和20%.从脂肪酸的种类及含量来说,厌氧池与缺氧池的脂肪酸的种类及含量均高于原水.     

渭河流域关中段城镇污水处理厂污泥处理技术调查与分析研究

根据渭河流域关中段的污染状况及《(渭河流域水污染防治三年行动方案(2012-2014年)》对科技攻关的实际需求,采用资料搜集、实地调查、问卷发放、数理统计等方式对渭河流域关中段55座城镇污水处理厂的污泥处理情况进行了调查与分析。根据调查分析结果,提出了渭河流域关中段城镇污水处理厂污泥处理技术在应用过程中存在的一些问题,并结合该流域实际情况提出了相应建议,期望能够对该流域污泥处理技术的良性发展提供"第一手"的参考资料。     

城市环境风险监控预警系统的构建与应用研究

文章在分析当前城市环境风险预警系统构建的不足的基础上,结合目前环境风险预警系统构建的基础支撑系统建设现状,介绍如何建立集成环境风险信息采集、实时监控预警、预测模拟、处理为一体的城市环境风险信息监控预警平台,实现城市环境风险信息统一管理与共享,提高环境监管部门及公众对环境风险的应急反应及处理速度,为城市环境安全保障提供决策支持。     

应用小型无人值守水站构建苏州市城区河道自动监测系统研究

苏州市城区河道自动监测系统实现了时城区河道环境整治水质变化的实时跟踪监测,系统采用小型、节能、低噪的智能子站、免试剂的监测方法和多重保障的安防措施,集监控评价发布为一体化,体现了绿色监测的理念,且与大型水站同样具有较强的野外适应能力和无人值守智能监测的特点.本文就系统的构架以及系统所具有的4个方面特点进行了阐述,并总结了在系统建设中的站点选址、对监测结果的有效利用、运行过程的质量控制及免试剂监测方法的适用性等几方面应用体会.     

基于增强回归树的城市PM2.5日均值变化分析:以常州为例

利用2014年12月至2015年11月常州市区6个国控监测站空气污染物浓度逐时数据,分析了PM_(2.5)浓度季节变化特征,采用增强回归树模拟分析了PM10、4种气态污染物和7个气象因子对ρ(PM_(2.5))日变化的贡献.结果表明,常州市区PM_(2.5)污染季节差异明显,冬季污染严重且持续时间长,夏季污染较轻.四季ρ(PM_(2.5))空间分布特征存在一定差异,但各季内不同监测站差异较小.增强回归树对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值进行模拟和验证得到,训练数据的相关性为0.981,交叉验证的相关性为0.957.此外,模拟值与实测值的标准化平均偏差为1.80%,标准化平均误差为10.41%,可见模型拟合效果较好.PM10、气态污染物、气象因子和区域输送及扩散这4种影响类型对全年ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的贡献率分别为23.4%、28%、36.2%和12.6%,表明在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的影响上,气象因子二次形成一次源区域输送及扩散.在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异贡献率大于5%的因子中,ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值与PM10、相对湿度、CO和O3正相关,与温度、SO2和混合层高度负相关,与大气压和NO2关系较复杂.区域输送及扩散方面,东南风向、偏西风向和偏北风向等上风向周边城市的污染物输送对常州市区PM_(2.5)污染存在较大的负面影响.     

基于城市功能区划分的道路机动车大气污染物排放清单研究——以厦门市海沧区为例

道路机动车尾气排放是造成城市近地面空气污染的主要原因之一,建立基于城市功能区划分的道路机动车大气污染物排放清单对改善中观尺度的城市空气质量具有重要辅助作用.本文以厦门市海沧区为例,基于城市功能区划分方法,结合各功能区内监测道路的机动车通行量实测数据,建立道路机动车大气污染物排放清单,并分析各功能区道路机动车大气污染物排放特征.结果发现,海沧区道路机动车尾气排放物中CO的排放贡献率最高,工业区和居住区的道路机动车大气污染物排放量对海沧区的空气污染贡献率最大,海沧区夜间大气污染物的主要排放源来自于工业区道路机动车大气污染物排放;生态服务区及公共管理与公共服务区的道路机动车排放特征受相邻工业区机动车大气污染物排放的影响较为显著.研究表明:城市功能区分布欠合理是导致道路机动车大气污染物高排放量的重要原因之一;基于城市功能区划分构建道路机动车大气污染物排放清单的研究方法,不仅可为中观尺度下的城市大气污染排放情况提供有效的调查途径,而且能为城市功能格局的合理规划提供重要的理论依据.