Endpoint ‘floating leaves’ of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Potamogeton natans</Emphasis>: A new method to evaluate the development of macrophytes in pond mesocosms

Goal, Scope and Background One of the advantages of long-term mesocosm experiments as compared to short-term standard toxicity tests in the laboratory is the potential for detecting secondary effects due to the interaction of species and recovery with biomass of macrophytes being an important endpoint. However, generating biomass data by harvesting is often laborious, time-consuming, costly and restricted to the end of the experiment. Moreover, valuable information may get lost, in particular in single application studies, since maximal primary effects and secondary effects or recovery occur per se at different times. Potamogeton natans was used as an example in order to test whether number and area of floating leaves can be reliably measured and be used as intermediate and final endpoints in mesocosm effect studies. Methods Digital photos, which were taken of the water surface in the course of an indoor pond mesocosm study on herbicide effects, were subjected to image analysis. The results were compared to wet weight and ash-free dry weight of Potamogeton at the end of the herbicide study. Results and Discussion Both number and area of floating leaves indicated the same herbicide effects as wet weight and ash-free dry weight of Potamogeton. Error introduced by the different work steps is small and can be further minimised by a number of method improvements. Recommendations and Perspectives In indoor mesocosm studies, errors due to the perspective adjustment may be circumvented by taking the photos perpendicular to the water surface. Correction for lens aberration, identical light conditions and the use of fluorescence images are considered promising. Field applications are proposed.     

昆明市城中村火灾事故统计分析

城中村是中国快速城市化进程中的一个普遍现象,由于缺乏统一规划和专门管理,城中村的高火灾风险成为当前面临的重要问题并得到社会各界关注.为获得昆明市城中村火灾的特点和规律,从2004-2006年昆明市火灾统计记录中区分出城中村和非城中村火灾数据,在此基础上采用Bayes统计分析城中村不同用途建筑物的火灾发生概率及概率比例.结果表明,相比城中村其他用途的建筑,居住用房火灾概率较低,而具有生产和加工性质的行业作坊、易燃易爆场所和娱乐场所的火灾概率较高,分别是居住用房的48倍、26倍和18倍.进一步采用火灾原因-场所关联对比分析了城中村和非城中村火灾的特点.从火灾发生场所看,与非城中村相比,城中村居住场所火灾发生比例高7.2%,路边可燃物高88.8%,木材、家具加工厂高184.8%,易燃易爆场所高521.4%; 从火灾原因看,城中村电气、电线短路致灾比例高1 2%,限制行为能力人(小孩和精神病人)致灾比例高65 1%,燃放烟花爆竹致灾比例高3.5%,吸烟致灾比例高50.9%,违章操作致灾比例高59.0%.这些差异基本上反映了城中村的主要外在特征,这些外在特征经城中村实地调研得到证实.     

多米诺效应的风险分析方法

介绍与分析多米诺效应的相关研究,并针对多米诺效应的定量风险分析,建立了从多米诺场景辨识到后果分析的多米诺效应定量分析方法.通过分析初始事故带来的物理效应对邻近设备的影响,计算了二次设备的损坏概率;分析了多米诺场景,计算了多米诺事故频率,并根据多米诺事故的后果得到个人风险和社会风险曲线.多米诺效应的风险是工业区一个潜在的严重风险,加强多米诺效应的研究对工厂和工业区的安全管理与规划都有重要意义.     

我国南方冰雪灾害的特征与城市救灾对策研究

在对2008年初中国南方所发生的冰雪灾害的损失、影响和成因进行分析的基础上,指出该次灾害具有受灾范围的全面性、灾害过程的发展性和救灾行动的艰难性等特征,阐明冰雪灾害在城市会造成停电停水、交通瘫痪和通讯中断等严重灾情,进而引发断油断粮、物价飞涨和人心恐慌等综合性灾害。通过冰雪灾害对城市救灾行动的总结,指出冰雪灾害给城市政府的深刻启示在于城市规模的急速扩张必须同时加强防灾救灾的软硬件建设,并提出城市必须采取持久开展防灾救灾知识宜传教育、大力加强防灾救灾基础设施建设、科学制订各类灾害的专业性应急预案和努力构建协同联动救灾机制等对策,有效提升城市应对灾害的能力,减少灾害造成的损失。     

城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价

从城市生态安全的基本内涵出发,根据压力(pressure)-状态(state)-响应(response)模型,从生态系统压力、生态系统状况、生态系统响应3方面构建一个4层次的城市生态安全评价指标体系,运用灰色系统理论,构建了城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价模型,并结合实例进行计算。评价结果与实际情况基本相符,表明该模型能有效地利用评价指标的信息,所给出的综合评价值既能用于描述所评价城市的生态安全状况,亦可对不同城市的生态安全状况进行比较,对更加科学合理地评价城市生态安全状况具有参考价值。     

城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案的决策分析

通过对近年来的城市燃气管道事故抢险统计数据的分析与研究,管道事故抢险方案的选择存在着很大的主观性和片面性.为了克服应急抢修方案的种种局限,笔者应用模糊综合评判方法建立了城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案评价选择模型;考虑可靠性、抢修时间、事故损失、抢险费用、社会影响及政治影响等6类影响因素来评判抢修方案的优劣,可以科学合理地选择最佳的管道事故应急抢修方案,达到经济合理、快速可靠的目的;实例验证,评判模型对城市燃气管道事故抢险具有重要的现实意义和参考价值.     

细水雾中雾滴和高温环境的热质交换研究

由雾滴的表面的组分方程和能量方程入手,探讨雾滴在静止的高温环境中的热质交换及生存时间。应用折算薄膜理论,通过特征时间的比较,提出雾滴与高温环境主要通过沸腾机制实现热质交换;考虑滴径与速度变化的耦合作用,应用数值方法研究雾滴在强迫对流环境中与高温环境的热质交换情况。结果表明:对于滴径较小的雾滴不可能达到火焰区或可燃物表面实施火焰冷却和表面冷却,其灭火作用主要依赖于汽化吸热。     

装备故障模式影响实际分析

在明确FMEA分析方法意义的基础上,本文对某装备进行故障模式及影响分析,并得出相应结论,以有助于该装备的研制与使用。     

Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5‰, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2 m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5 m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2‰.     

吴忠黄河公路大桥建设对滨河湿地的影响及保护措施研究

跨河大桥的建设对社会和经济的发展具有促进作用,但同时也会影响环境。正在建设的吴忠黄河公路大桥穿越吴忠滨河湿地,会对湿地的生态环境产生影响。文章介绍了吴忠黄河公路大桥和滨河湿地的基本概况,分析了大桥建设和营运对滨河湿地环境的影响,并提出了滨河湿地生态环境保护措施。