Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

Occurence and Distribution of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Ankara Precipitation

Urban atmospheric environment contains many trace organic pollutants that are related to the incomplete fuel combustion in domestic heating, industrial plants and automobile traffic. Removal of these pollutants from the atmosphere takes place through wet and dry deposition as well as chemical transformations. In this study, concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in wet deposition samples were determined at an urban site of Turkey. Wet and dry deposition samples were collected using Andersen Rain Sampler. The sampler was modified accordingly for the collection of organic pollutants. Collected samples were preconcentrated by using solid phase extraction (SPE) disks and consecutively analyzed by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). Among the 13 compounds quantified in this study, anthracene, fluoranthene, and pyrene were found more frequently and at elevated concentrations (202, 271 and 260 ng L^-1 mean concentrations, respectively).Concentrations of PAHs were found to be high in winter period.     

西藏自治区土地资源的适宜性评价与利用

本文综合评价了西藏自治区土地资源的适宜性及其质量．阐明了影响土地资源潜力发挥的主要限制因素，分析了土地资源利用现状、存在问题和开发潜力。并在此基础上、提出了西藏自治区土地资源合理开发利用的方向、对策和措施。     

DENSITY CURRENT INTRUSIONS IN AN ICE-COVERED URBAN LAKE1

ABSTRACT: Evidence is presented that snowmelt runoff from an urban watershed can produce density current intrusions (underflows) in a lake. Several episodes of density current intrusions are documented. Water temperatures and salinities measured near the bottom of a 10 m deep Minneapolis lake during the late winter warming periods in 1989, 1990, 1991, and 1995 show significant rapid changes which are correlated with observed higher air temperatures and snowmelt runoff. The snowmelt runoff entering this particular lake (Ryan Lake) has increased electrical conductivity, salinity, and density. The source of the salinity is the salt spread on urban streets in the winter. Heating of littoral waters in spring may also contribute to the occurrence of the sinking flows, but is clearly not the only cause.     

岷江上游半干旱河谷土壤成土特征研究：以大沟流域为例

岷江上游半干旱河谷位于新构造运动活动带，其土壤形成和发育过程有着鲜明的区域特征。本文结合该区域的自然地理特点，综合分析各成土因素和土壤性状，对该区域土壤的成土特征进行了深入的分析和研究。     

内蒙古典型草原土壤的氟含量

对内蒙古草原区典型草原不同区域内土壤氟水平及分布规律进行了研究。结果表明，典型草原土壤氟含量从东到西呈上升趋势，典型草原土壤表层氟含量平均值为２８５．４６ｍｇ／ｋｇ，与国内外有关文献值相比属中等水平，处于内蒙古土壤表层氟背景值范围内。     

农业生态与土地退化的土壤微形态研究

简要地介绍了土壤微形态研究方法及其在农业生态与土地退化研究中的应用,并回顾了近20a的国际土壤微形态研究的内容与进展.在过去的20a中,土壤微形态学在概念、现象的解释、分析技术'以及应用上都取得了前所未有的进展.特别在样品脱水方法、荧光分析、图象处理及定量分析技术上得到很大的发展.植物根系与土壤微结构的关系,土壤改良对结构的影响等方面研究取得一定的成就.利用土壤微形态研究农业生态系统中的根系与根际的生态过程,作物对水分和养分的吸收过程,人为活动对土壤退化,熟化的微形态指标,以及利用微形态指标评价人为因素在现代土壤过程中的作用等,是土壤微形态研究的最新动态.     

广西桂东北地区农业土壤环境若干重金属元素背景值的调查

应用分层抽样统计方法,调查研究广西桂东北地区农业土壤环境Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd、Ni、As、Cr、Hg等8种重金属元素背景值,并分别求算出各元素背景值95％的置信区间。经方差分析,各成土母质间几种元素背景值都有不同程度差异。探讨了该区域农业土壤元素背景值与世界土壤、地壳丰度和国内土壤元素背景值的差异,为开展农业环境科学研究提供依据。