基于案例推理的城市典型灾害应急处置专家系统构建研究

全球自然灾害频发、强度不断增强,且城市化进程飞速发展,其所带来的相关城市灾害风险与日俱增.在重视灾害预报、预警的同时,城市灾害应急处置工作的有效组织与开展,亦是至关重要.把人工智能和城市灾害学知识相结合,通过构建灾害应急处置专家系统来解决该问题是目前的一个研究方向.本文运用案例推理等人工智能领域知识进行相关问题研究,阐述了如何对典型城市灾害案例进行知识化存储处理,给出了典型城市灾害分类推理规则和应急救援案例匹配计算方法.最后,利用VC++和CLIPS相结合,构建了基于案例决策的城市灾害应急处置专家系统.通过研究,充分验证了该模型方法的可行性,对于提高城市应急处置能力具有很好的现实意义.     

Ambivalence towards discourse of disaster resilience

This paper investigates empirically how the international aid community (IAC)—donors and practitioners—considers and implements disaster resilience in a specific country setting, Nepal, and throughout the rest of the world. A key finding is that there is ambivalence about a concept that has become a discourse. On a global level, the IAC utilises the discourse of resilience in a cautiously positive manner as a bridging concept. On a national level, it is being used to influence the Government of Nepal, as well as serving as an operational tool of donors. The mythical resilient urban community is fashioned in the IAC's imaginary; understanding how people create communities and what type of linkages with government urban residents desire to develop their resilience strategies is missing, though, from the discussion. Disaster resilience can be viewed as another grand plan to enhance the lives of people. Yet, regrettably, an explicit focus on individuals and their communities is lost in the process.     

Urban development and landscape change in the Yangtze River Delta region in China

The impact of large-scale urban development on land resources has long been debated by urban planners and designers. This study investigated the extent to which different urban characteristics are associated with land-cover change. The Yangtze River Delta region in China, forming one of the largest sprawling urban landscapes among the regions around the world, was chosen for the study area. Spatial analysis and multiple regression methods were applied to empirically investigate the pattern of resource sites lost to urban development in the area between the 1950s and 2017. The results showed that contrary to the widespread notion that large-sized cities are predominantly responsible for a region’s environmental degradation, city size was not a significant factor in determining the rate of resource loss. Large-sized cities gained their populations with far lesser impacts on land than small-sized cities and towns if normalized to the same number of populations. One explanation for the diminishing effect of city size on land-cover change relates to the degree of spatial dispersion of urban development and local differences in social valuation of diversified lands by cities.     

The deflectors influence on flow complexity,bed morphology,sediment transport and water quality of urban lotic waters - A laboratory study

In this laboratory study different combinations of bed (sand, pebble gravel [gravel], and a mix of sand and gravel) and flow (typical and overtopping) were experimented with to investigate the impact of porous deflectors in flow diversity, water quality, and fish performance in prismatic open channels. Deflectors changed the gradually varied flow to a rapidly varied flow, as a sudden change in the water depth was observed at the deflectors, and this change was large for smooth beds. With the presence of gravel, the scouring near the downstream deflector was almost twice that of the sand bed, and with the scouring at its own upstream deflector, irrespective of whether the flow was typical or overtopping. This behavior was a result of sand mobilization due to shear stress and sand mobilization aided gravel transport. The mixed bed showed less gravel movement compared to the gravel-only bed. The percentage of sediment washed out was minor for all bed scenarios, indicating that sediment transport was local. Relative to the sand bed without deflectors (representing a typical urban canal), deflectors resulted in reduced and improved water quality (in terms of sediment load) for sand, and mixed bed, respectively. The fishes found refuge and were comfortable in the pool areas created by deflectors unlike in channels without deflectors where they showed exhaustion.     

Effects of urban greenspace configuration and native vegetation on bee and wasp reproduction

Pollinator welfare is a recognized research and policy target, and urban greenspaces have been identified as important habitats. Yet, landscape-scale habitat fragmentation and greenspace management practices may limit a city's conservation potential. We examined how landscape configuration, composition, and local patch quality influenced insect nesting success across inner-city Cleveland, Ohio (U.S.A.), a postindustrial legacy city containing a high abundance of vacant land (over 1600 ha). Here, 40 vacant lots were assigned 1 of 5 habitat treatments (T1, vacant lot; T2, grass lawn; T3, flowering lawn; T4, grass prairie; and T5, flowering prairie), and we evaluated how seeded vegetation, greenspace size, and landscape connectivity influenced cavity-nesting bee and wasp reproduction. Native bee and wasp larvae were more abundant in landscapes that contained a large patch (i.e., >6 ha) of contiguous greenspace, in habitats with low plant biomass, and in vacant lots seeded with a native wildflower seed mix or with fine-fescue grass, suggesting that fitness was influenced by urban landscape features and habitat management. Our results can guide urban planning by demonstrating that actions that maintain large contiguous greenspace in the landscape and establish native plants would support the conservation of bees and wasps. Moreover, our study highlights that the world's estimated 350 legacy cities are promising urban conservation targets due to their high abundance of vacant greenspace that could accommodate taxa's habitat needs in urban areas.     

Oil dependency,political institutions,and urban–rural disparities in access to electricity in Africa

In line with the resource curse literature, this paper examines the effect of oil dependency on the disparities in access to electricity between urban and rural areas in Africa, conditional on the quality of political institutions. Based on data from 36 African countries over the period 2000–2017, our investigation suggests that oil rents (% of GDP) increase urban–rural disparities in access to electricity. However, the quality of institutions shapes the effect of oil dependency on these disparities. Specifically, a 10% increase in the institutional quality score reduces the adverse effects of oil rent on electricity access disparity by around 19%, and the negative impact of oil dependency on urban–rural disparities is reversed when institutional quality reaches a score of 52% on a scale from 0 to 100. The robustness tests support these results and call for strengthening the quality of institutions to overcome the resource curse in Africa.     

可拓优度评价法在城市区域消防安全评价中的应用

为了解决城市区域消防安全评价的复杂性和不确定性,本文运用可拓优度评价法,根据相关文件并结合城市区域消防的实际情况,从火灾危险程度、城市区域特征、消防实力水平和社会管理状态4个方面选取17个指标,建立了城市区域消防安全评价指标体系并划分了消防安全等级,以洛阳市西工区为例对城市区域消防安全评价的可拓优度方法进行了验证。结果表明,可拓优度方法可以准确反映出该区域消防安全水平。     

14个有价值的城市安全系统学理论基础问题

安全系统学是安全科学的核心基础理论,很适用于研究城市系统安全问题。本文从认识论和本体论出发阐述系统发生事故的本质原因,归纳了城市安全需要研究全生命周期与全球视野问题、微系统—中系统—宏系统耦合匹配问题、可持续—智慧—公共服务—多系统—生活生产安全—公共安全协同问题、输入与输入平衡关系、应急与涌现关系、信息与安全情报关系、安全管理与自组织关系、复杂城市与复杂科学关系,简述本质安全并非基础设施安全、风险管理需要精准安全、韧性并非物理性问题,认为使命—人—机—物—管—环—信—文的体系,以及工程—教育—管理—文化等对策应赋予新的安全内涵。上述内容是城市系统安全学的重要理论基础问题。     

Impacts of rural to urban migration,urbanization, and generational change on consumption of wild animals in the Amazon

For the first time in history, more people live in urban areas than in rural areas. This trend is likely to continue, driven largely by rural-to-urban migration. We investigated how rural-to-urban migration, urbanization, and generational change affect the consumption of wild animals. We used chelonian (tortoises and freshwater turtles), one of the most hunted taxa in the Amazon, as a model. We surveyed 1356 households and 2776 school children across 10 urban areas of the Brazilian Amazon (6 small towns, 3 large towns, and Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon Basin) with a randomized response technique and anonymous questionnaires. Urban demand for wild meat (i.e., meat from wild animals) was alarmingly high. Approximately 1.7 million turtles and tortoises were consumed in urban areas of Amazonas during 2018. Consumption rates declined as size of the urban area increased and were greater for adults than children. Furthermore, the longer rural-to-urban migrants lived in urban areas, the lower their consumption rates. These results suggest that wild meat consumption is a rural-related tradition that decreases as urbanization increases and over time after people move to urban areas. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline will be fast enough to conserve hunted species, or whether children's consumption rate will remain the same as they become adults. Thus, conservation actions in urban areas are still needed. Current conservation efforts in the Amazon do not address urban demand for wildlife and may be insufficient to ensure the survival of traded species in the face of urbanization and human population growth. Our results suggest that conservation interventions must target the urban demand for wildlife, especially by focusing on young people and recent rural to urban migrants. Article impact statement: Amazon urbanite consumption of wildlife is high but decreases with urbanization, over time for rural to urban migrants, and between generations. Impactos de la Migración del Campo a la Ciudad, la Urbanización y del Cambio Generacional sobre el Consumo de Animales Silvestres en el Amazonas     

城市安全生产风险评估调研和信息处理方法研究

为城市安全生产风险评估调研工作的合理有序开展,本文结合实际案例归纳了城市安全生产风险评估调研的目的、范围、内容和流程,具体介绍了走访座谈法、常专结合法、函件调研法等信息采集方法,总结了综合归纳法和逻辑处理法等信息处理方法。结果表明,在调研的不同阶段运用不同的调研方法可有效获取城市安全生产风险源信息及安全生产基本信息,为城市安全生产风险评估工作奠定坚实的信息数据资料支撑。