ESTIMATING ANNUAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES USING FOURIER SERIES METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The Fourier series method is proposed as a feasible non-parametric approach for the estimation of the density and distribution functions of annual floods. Clearly, the goodness of fit to empirical data improves as higher Fourier terms are incorporated, and the choice of a higher term depends on whether the inclusion of this term will reduce the fitting error to within a specified tolerance level. This method was applied to the flood data from eight rivers, and to data simulated from known distributions. The results are clearly better than other parametric methods, just like other non-parametric techniques currently used to estimate annual flood probabilities.     

PARAMETRIC/NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATION TO FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

Much attention has been invested in the model choice problem for peak annual flows, in the context of flood frequency analysis. The authors would sidestep this dilemma through non-parametric density estimation methodology, but recognize that the standard nonparametric estimators preclude the use of prior information and related data, and furthermore have virtually no tail at all. Here we offer a remedy for these inadequacies by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimates. We prove that our mixture rule is consistent. By this procedure, we do allow incorporation of prior information, experience, and regional data information, but nevertheless provide a safeguard against incorrect model choice.     

铅蓄电池企业废气中铅及其化合物便携式XRF检测方法

在企业污染源现场实现污染物排放浓度水平的快速判定和超标风险筛查,对生态环境管理部门提高执法效率、企业提高环境管理水平意义重大。铅是一种对人体危害极大的有毒重金属,目前缺少含铅废气中铅及其化合物的便携式直读检测设备和检测方法。探索性地将X射线荧光光谱(XRF)法应用于铅蓄电池企业含铅废气中铅及其化合物的便携式快速、直读检测。研究结果表明,基于XRF的面密度法适用于铅蓄电池企业含铅废气处理设施后铅及其化合物的快速、直读检测,相对国标方法具有快速、直读、对样品无损、便于复测等特点,可用于铅及其化合物排放浓度水平的快速判定和超标风险筛查。     

Mercury Vapor Determination in Hospitals

The measurements of metallic mercury vapor were carried out in seven local hospitals, where mercury-containing products are widely used, as well as in one residence to check effectiveness of decontamination after mercury spillage. Hopcalite as a solid sorbent was used in active and passive sampling methods, and mercury was analyzed by CV-AAS technique. Good agreement was found between results of mercury measurements using active samplers (pumped hopcalite adsorption tubes) and passive (diffusion) monitors applied in indoor atmosphere. The results indicated the presence of metallic mercury vaporization sources in the assessed hospital rooms but in the majority of cases mercury levels did not exceed 1 g/m³ i.e. Polish permissible concentration for residence. However, in some of the hospital rooms, elevated concentrations of mercury vapor were found and airborne levels of up to 13.9 g/m³ were recorded. Higher concentrations of mercury vapor were observed in autumn season when compared to summer.     

人口密度对森林火灾发生频率的影响

人类活动是引发森林火灾的主要原因之一，在中国、日本等国家，90％以上的森林火灾是由人为因素引起的。为了量化人类活动对森林火灾的影响，本文基于日本的三级网格系统，对日本全国范围内近年来的森林火灾数据、土地利用率数据和人口密度数据进行了综合分析，研究了人口密度对火灾发生频率的定量影响规律。结果表明：森林火灾发生频率与人口密度之间呈现出幂律关系，经过一步的分析，发现两者之间存在具有边界效应的简单关系，即渐近幂律分布。本文的研究结果对于森林火灾的防治，特别是对于火险的预测具有实用意义。     

华东地区地震目录的完全性分析

按照文献 [1]提出的分析方法 ,对华东地区地震发生率进行了统计修补 ,由此得到华东地区地震发生的概率密度分布。其结果对地震活动性研究和地震危险区的划分具有一定意义。在地震目录分段分析研究中 ,引入了Fisher的时序分割法     

污水深度处理系统在油田污水处理中的应用分析

乐安油田是通过蒸汽吞吐减轻原油粘度进行开采的稠油油田。针对其特点,借鉴美国、加拿大污水回用的成功经验和先进技术,建成投产了国内第一座也是最大的一座油井采出水回用于湿蒸汽发生器的大型泵站 ── 乐安污水深度处理站。文章详细介绍了污水深度处理系统以及运行2年来所取得的成果,证明油田采出水深度处理后回用于湿蒸汽发生器技术是完全可行并易于操作的。     

冷凝-催化燃烧法处理乙烯厂富含水蒸气的恶臭废气

采用冷凝-催化燃烧法处理乙烯厂富含水蒸气的恶臭废气,冷凝过程能够有效地脱除废气中的水蒸气、联苯和联苯醚,催化燃烧过程能够有效地脱除不凝气中的烃类化合物.催化燃烧反应器内装填Pr、Pd、Ce多组分蜂窝状催化剂,在床层空速为15900～40000h-4、反应器入口气温度为30～350℃的条件下,反应器入口气中总烃的体积分数为64.9×10-6～691.0×10-6时,出口总烃的体积分数可降至5.2×10-6～20.0×10-6,总烃的去除率为90%以上,处理后的气体符合国家排放标准.     

地铁列车火灾中的人员疏散仿真研究

近年来,随着城市人口的不断激增,地铁行业也随之蓬勃发展,地铁列车已经从城市交通的辅助角色转变成人们生活中的关键需求,因而做好地铁的消防安全工程势在必行。针对列车火灾的人员疏散问题进行了模拟分析,考虑列车车厢内4种人员密度疏散的场景,通过软件模拟分析,将结果与规范计算所得结果进行比对,较为真实可靠地反映了人员密度对疏散的影响,并在此基础上提出相关建议。     

Distribution,source, and ecological risk assessment of PAHs among size and density fractions in contaminated sediments from the Yellow River of Henan section

This study investigated particle size and density distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two surface sediments (JZ and KF), collected from the Yellow River of Henan section, China. The concentrations of Σ₁₅PAHs ranged from 35.6 to 45862?ng g^?1 dry wt, which were greatly elevated in coarse particles and low-density fractions. The Σ₁₅PAHs concentrations in low-density fractions were 533 (JZ) and 996 (KF) times higher than those in the corresponding high-density fractions. However, due to relatively less quantities of low-density fractions (0.27–2.33%), most of the PAHs were contributed by the high-density components. For both sediments, the influence factors of PAHs source in the environment were very complex, more so than the level of TOC and BC content. JZ sediment was dominated by 4-ring to 6-ring PAHs (61.5–75.1%), while, 2-ring to 3-ring PAHs were abundant in KF samples (39.8–72.6%). Ratios of specific PAHs reflected PAHs among the size- and density-fraction of each sediment may be contaminated by mixed of pyrolytic and petrogenic origin. Additionally, ecological risk assessment of PAHs suggested that total toxic equivalent values of PAHs in the low-density fractions were much higher than those of the corresponding high-density fractions in the studied area.