Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

DROUGHT PLANNING: A PROCESS FOR STATE GOVERNMENT1

ABSTRACT: Drought has been a prevalent feature of the American landscape during the latter part of the 1980s, producing serious socioeconomic and environmental consequences. These recent experiences with drought have renewed concern about the inadequacy of federal and state contingency planning efforts and the lack of coordination for assessment and response efforts between these levels of government. This paper presents the results of research aimed at facilitating the preparation of drought contingency plans by state government in conjunction with a state's overall water management planning activity. The ten-step drought plan development process reported is intended to improve mitigation efforts through more timely, effective, and efficient assessment and response activities. Officials in appropriate state agencies should examine the proposed framework and alter it to best address drought-related concerns, adding or deleting elements as necessary.     

PARTITIONING SMALL SCALE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RUNOFF AND EROSION ON SAGEBRUSH RANGELAND1

ABSTRACT: Most hydrologic models require input parameters which represent the variability found across an entire landscape. The estimation of such parameters is very difficult, particularly on rangeland. Improved model parameter estimation procedures are needed which incorporate the small-scale and temporal variability found on rangeland. This study investigates the use of a surface soil classification scheme to partition the spatial variability in hydrologic and interrill erosion processes in a sagebrush plant community. Four distinct microsites were found to exist within the sagebrush coppice-dune dune-interspace complex. The microsites explained the majority of variation in hydrologic and interrill erosion response found on the site and were discernable based on readily available soil and vegetation information. The variability within each microsite was quite low and was not well correlated with soil and vegetation properties. The surface soil classification scheme defined in this study can be quite useful for defining sampling procedures, for understanding hydrologic and erosion processes, and for parameterizing hydrologic models for use on sagebrush range-land.     

VARIABILITY IN MEASURED BEDLO AD-TRANSPORT RATES1

ABSTRACT: Variability in bedload-transport rates during constant water discharge is an inherent part of the bedload-transport process. Although this variability has been measured extensively in the laboratory, similar information generally is not available from field measurements. During a four-day period of nearly constant water discharge, four sets of consecutively collected bedload samples, ranging from 43 to 120 samples, were obtained at the same cross channel location using a standard 65-pound Helley-Smith bedload sampler. When the measured transport rates are converted to dimensionless rates and plotted as cumulative frequency distributions, they show good agreement with a theoretical probability distribution function of rates derived for the case of ripples on dunes. The distributions show that during constant water discharge individual measured rates at a fixed point vary from near zero to four times the mean rate, and 60 percent of the sampled rates will be less than the mean. Because of the large variation in transport rates that occurs at every location in the cross section, many observations are required to establish an accurate estimate of the mean rate at any given location.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT PLATTE RIVER SPECIES RECOVERY EFFORTS1

ABSTRACT: Efforts are under way to recover habitat for several threatened and endangered species in and along the Platte River in central Nebraska. A proposed recovery program for these species requires a means of characterizing “wet” versus “normal” versus “dry” hydrologic conditions in order to set corresponding Platte River instream flow targets. Methods of characterizing hydrologic conditions in real time were investigated for this purpose. Initially, 10 watershed variables were identified as potentially valuable indicators of hydrologic conditions. Ultimately, six multiple linear regression equations were developed for six periods of the year using a subset of these variables expressed as frequencies of nonexceedence. The adequacy of these equations for characterizing conditions was assessed by evaluating their historic correlation to subsequent flow in the central Platte River (1947–1994). These equations explained 54 to 82 percent of variability in the observed flow exceedences in the validation datasets, depending upon the period of year evaluated. These equations will provide initial criteria for setting applicable flow targets to determine, in real time, whether water regulation projects associated with the species recovery effort can divert or store flows without conflicting with recovery objectives.     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.     

前车突然切入时驾驶人应激生理特性研究

为研究前车突然切入对驾驶人生理负荷的影响,利用MP150生理监测系统对22名被试进行虚拟驾驶试验。采集记录前车突然切入时被试的生理参数。研究驾驶人心率增长率和心率变异性(HRV)指标与车速、应激距离之间的关系。结果表明:自车速度为100 km/h时,随着前车切入距离从55.6 m减小到27.8 m,被试的平均心率增长率从16.21%增大到23.27%,HRV参数低频(LF)值也呈现下降趋势。前车切入距离一定,随着自车车速从60 km/h增加到120 km/h,被试的平均心率增长率存在显著性差异,平均从13.05%上升到21.85%。差异性检验结果表明,前车切入距离和自车速度发生变化时驾驶人的生理负荷变化趋势一致,但自车速度因素对驾驶人生理负荷的影响程度高于切入距离因素。     

Influence of Riparian Seepage Zones on Nitrate Variability in Two Agricultural Headwater Streams

Riparian seeps have been recognized for their contributions to stream flow in headwater catchments, but there is limited data on how seeps affect stream water quality. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of seeps on the variability of stream NO₃‐N concentrations in FD36 and RS, two agricultural catchments in Pennsylvania. Stream samples were collected at 10‐m intervals over reaches of 550 (FD36) and 490 m (RS) on 21 occasions between April 2009 and January 2012. Semi‐variogram analysis was used to quantify longitudinal patterns in stream NO₃‐N concentration. Seep water was collected at 14 sites in FD36 and 7 in RS, but the number of flowing seeps depended on antecedent conditions. Seep NO₃‐N concentrations were variable (0.1‐29.5 mg/l) and were often greater downslope of cropped fields compared to other land uses. During base flow, longitudinal variability in stream NO₃‐N concentrations increased as the number of flowing seeps increased. The influence of seeps on the variability of stream NO₃‐N concentrations was less during storm flow compared to the variability of base flow NO₃‐N concentrations. However, 24 h after a storm in FD36, an increase in the number of flowing seeps and decreasing streamflow resulted in the greatest longitudinal variability in stream NO₃‐N concentrations recorded. Results indicate seeps are important areas of NO₃‐N delivery to streams where targeted adoption of mitigation measures may substantially improve stream water quality.     

“城郊乡”梯度下土壤Cu、Zn、Pb含量的空间变异特征

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤环境质量的影响,选择能反映上海城郊乡梯度差异的中心城区、城郊结合部和远郊,采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品Cu、Zn、Pb的空间变异结构和分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明:城市土壤Pb、Cu、Zn的变异系数范围为0.24~0.62,均属中等变异强度。徐汇区土壤Cu、Pb、Zn符合正态分布,闵行区土壤Cu、Pb和Zn符合对数正态分布,奉贤区土壤Zn呈正态分布,土壤Cu、Pb符合对数正态分布。由中心城区到远郊,城市土壤Cu、Pb、Zn的各项统计特征值和变异系数均有较大差异,存在明显的空间分布差异。半方差函数分析结果表明,徐汇区作为中心城区,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn符合球状模型,土壤Cu、Zn具有强烈的空间相关性,土壤Pb具有明显的空间自相关。奉贤区以农业用地为主,土壤Pb符合线性模型,土壤Cu符合高斯模型,土壤Zn符合指数模型,具有强烈的空间相关性。闵行区地处城郊结合部,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn的半方差拟合模型均为线性模型,表现为纯块金形式,以随机变异为主,空间相关性弱。采用Kriging最优内插法进行无偏估值,绘制了表层土壤重金属含量的空间分布图,中心城区、城郊结合部、郊区土壤重金属的空间分布受城市化、工业化、城市交通等因素的影响,均表现出不同的空间分布规律。