可变情报板对交通安全的影响分析

目前,可变情报板作为最基础、最常用的诱导信息发布平台被大量安装在道路两侧。一方面,它在一定程度上分散了车辆的聚集,减少了车辆的巡游;而另一方面,由于对可变情报板的设置、显示等方面的研究不足,它对交通安全带来了一定的影响,或者诱导效果并不理想。笔者主要围绕北京市西直门桥周边的可变情报板进行调研,从多个方面分析了可变情报板对交通安全的影响,列出了主要的影响因素,如刷新频率、视认性等,并给出了一定的量化指标。     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

Experience,but not distance,influences the recruitment precision in the stingless bee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scaptotrigona mexicana</Emphasis>

Recruitment precision, i.e. the proportion of recruits that reach an advertised food source, is a crucial adaptation of social bees to their environment. Studies with honeybees showed that recruitment precision is not a fixed feature, but it may be enhanced by factors like experience and distance. However, little is known regarding the recruitment precision of stingless bees. Hence, in this study, we examined the effects of experience and spatial distance on the precision of the food communication system of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona mexicana. We conducted the experiments by training bees to a three-dimensional artificial patch at several distances from the colony. We recorded the choices of individual recruited foragers, either being newcomers (foragers without experience with the advertised food source) or experienced (foragers that had previously visited the feeder). We found that the average precision of newcomers (95.6 ± 2.61%) was significantly higher than that of experienced bees (80.2 ± 1.12%). While this might seem counter-intuitive on first sight, this “loss” of precision can be explained by the tendency of experienced recruits to explore nearby areas to find new rewarding food sources after they had initially learned the exact location of the food source. Increasing the distance from the colony had no significant effect on the precision of the foraging bees. Thus, our data show that experience, but not the distance of the food source, affected the patch precision of S. mexicana foragers.     

空调系统冷冻水循环水泵变频运行的变温差控制

在分析空调系统变流量运行调节的基础上,提出了变温差控制并给出了控制方案。变温差控制过程不仅具有负反馈,而且具有正反馈,能较好的适应空调负荷的变化。比较分析了变温差控制、定温差控制、定压差控制的节能性,变温差控制的节能潜力最大,是一种最佳控制方式。     

生活垃圾资源化有效利用性分析

本文对生活垃圾资源化处理进行分析,垃圾中重金属的存在直接影响其有效利用,不断强化人们的环保意识,将分拣垃圾落实到实际行动中,生活垃圾能够变废为宝。     

地球自转及天体作用力对精密离心机的影响

目的研究地球自转产生的科里奥利力及天体作用力对高精度精密离心机的影响规律。方法考虑精密离心机实际存在的各种失准角,采用齐次变换方法推导由地球自转在加速度计输入轴上产生的科里奥利加速度数学表达式;建立天体作用力对精密离心机上加速度计影响的数学关系式。结果科氏加速度对精密离心机的影响量级为10-5m/s2;月球和太阳作用力的最大影响量级之和为10-6m/s2。结论对于10-6量级精度的精密离心机,必须补偿科氏加速度的影响;月球和太阳作用力的影响可以忽略不计。     

提高快速法测定C OD准确度及精密度的方法

介绍了用快速法测定COD分析中提高准确度及精密度的方法。