Ecosystem network analysis indicators are generally robust to parameter uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Understanding how data uncertainty influences ecosystem analysis is critical as we move toward ecosystem-based management. Here, we investigate how 18 Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indicators that characterize ecosystem growth, development, and condition are affected by uncertainty in an ecosystem model of Lake Sidney Lanier (USA). We applied ENA to 122 plausible parameterizations of the ecosystem developed by Borrett and Osidele (2007, Ecological Modelling 200, 371-387), and then used the coefficient of variation (CV) to compare system indicator variability. We considered Total System Throughput (TST) as a measure of the underlying model uncertainty and tested three hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that non-ratio indicators whose calculation includes the TST would be at least as variable as TST if not more variable. Second, we postulated that indicators calculated as ratios, with TST in the numerator and denominator would tend to be less variable than TST because its influence will cancel. Last, we expected the Average Mutual Information (AMI) to be less variable than TST because it is a bounded function. Our work shows that the 18 indicators grouped into four categories. The first group has significantly larger CVs than the CV for TST. In this group, model uncertainty is amplified rendering these three indicators less useful. The second group of four indicators shows no significant difference in variability with respect to TST. Finally, there are two groups whose CV values are significantly lower than that for TST. The least variable group includes the ratio-based indicators and Average Mutual Information. Due to their low variability, we conclude that these indicators are the most robust to the parameter uncertainty and most useful for ecosystem assessment and comparative ecosystem analysis. In summary, this work suggests that we can be as certain, or more certain, in most of the selected ENA indicators as we are in the parameters of the model analyzed.     

Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains

An important element of resource management and conservation is an understanding of the tradeoffs between marketed products, such as timber, and measures of environmental quality, such as biodiversity. In this paper, we develop an integrated economic-ecological spatial optimization model that we then apply to evaluate alternate forest policies on a 560,000 km² study region of managed boreal forest in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The integrated model incorporates dynamic forest sector harvesting, current levels of oil and gas sector development, coarse-filter or habitat-based old forest indicators, a set of empirical forest bird abundance models, and statistical models of the natural and current fire regimes. Using our integrated model, economic tradeoff curves, or production possibility frontiers, are developed to illustrate the cost of achieving coarse-filter targets by a set time (50 years) within a 100-year time horizon. We found levels of ecological indicators and economic returns from the timber industry could both be increased if spatial constraints imposed by the current policy environment were relaxed; other factors being equal, this implies current policy should be revised. We explore the production possibility frontier's relationship to the range of natural variation of old forest habitat, and show how this range can be used to guide choices of preferred locations along the frontier. We also show that coarse-filter constraints on the abundance of certain habitat elements are sufficient to satisfy some fine-filter objectives, expressed as the predicted abundances of various species of songbirds.     

黄土高原半干旱区覆膜玉米土壤温度的变异特征

黄土高原半干旱丘陵山区受特殊的地理、地形以及水文气象条件的影响,造成农业生产播种难、出苗率低等问题,严重制约着农业的发展,但通过覆膜坐水技术能够起到抗旱保墒、提高地温、改善土壤肥效等作用。以哲单7号玉米ZeamaysL为供试品种,在设置对比试验小区（覆膜与不覆膜）的基础上,通过分析覆膜玉米土壤温度变异特征,描述了覆膜后增温、提墒、增产的过程,研究结果表明：覆膜处理与不覆膜处理相比,增温最明显的时期出现在出苗到拔节阶段,且10cm．和20cm处的温差表现为最大,可增温2．5℃左右,而后期增温减慢,播种后覆膜增温为玉米发芽生长提供了良好的生长环境,大大提高了出苗率,为作物节水增产提供了必要条件。     

贵州喀斯特地区不同土地利用方式土壤CO_2体积分数变化及影响因素

为了解不同土地利用方式对土壤剖面CO2体积分数的影响,采用气相色谱法对贵州喀斯特地区土壤不同深度空气CO2体积分数进行观测。结果表明：不同土地利用对土壤平均CO2体积分数影响较大,其次序为：次生林（0.35%±0.06%）〉草地（0.34%±0.05%）〉人工林（0.27%±0.03%）〉农田（0.16%±0.03%）。次生林、草地与农田之间土壤CO2体积分数差异性显著,而人工林与农田之间无显著性差异。不同土地利用方式土壤剖面CO2体积分数的时空变化特征比较一致：从春季到夏季逐渐增加而从秋季到冬季又逐渐降低,与该区域的温度和降雨量变化趋势一致。同时随着土壤剖面深度增加CO2体积分数逐渐增大,但在土层12 cm处有突然降低现象（农田除外）。不同土地利用方式土壤空气CO2体积分数变化与大气、土壤温度密切相关（r=0.602~0.886,P〈0.05）,土壤温度升高会导致土壤CO2体积分数上升。土壤湿度虽然也在一定程度上影响了剖面CO2体积分数,但相关性分析表明二者之间并不显著（r=0.105~0.393,P〉0.05）,说明在贵州喀斯特地区,土壤温度对土壤空气CO2体积分数的影响大于土壤湿度。     

高技术产业创新资源绩效的时空分异研究——以全球创新型国家为例

构建了高技术产业创新资源绩效评价的投入产出指标体系,利用《美国科学工程分类指标年鉴》及经济合作与发展组织（OECD） 1995-2011年高技术产业活动相关数据,运用超效率DEA模型和区域差异测度锡尔指数对全球28个国家或地区的高技术产业创新资源绩效及各区域创新资源绩效差异进行分析.结果显示：①全球28个国家或地区的高技术产业创新资源绩效水平呈现两级分化趋势.其中,新加坡、瑞士、瑞典、美国4个国家的得分较高,排名靠前,其他国家或地区绩效水平较低.②欧洲、美洲、亚洲-大洋洲之间的高技术产业创新资源绩效水平差异呈现缩小趋势,欧洲区域内部高技术产业创新资源绩效水平差异呈现逐年扩大趋势.     

Within-population variation in ejaculate characteristics in a prolonged breeder,Peron’s tree frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Litoria peronii</Emphasis>

Sperm number is often a good predictor of success in sperm competition; however, it has become increasingly clear that, for some species, variation in probability of paternity cannot be explained by sperm number alone. Intraspecific variation in ejaculate characteristics, such as the number of viable sperm and sperm longevity, may play an equally important role in determining fertilization success. Here, we assess variation among ejaculates in three factors that may contribute to fertilization success (number of sperm per ejaculate, viability, and longevity), in a population of Peron’s tree frog (Litoria peronii). We detected large variation among males in the number of sperm per ejaculate and the proportion of viable sperm within ejaculates, which could not be explained by variation in either male size or body condition. However, the proportion of viable sperm released by males increased over the season. Finally, we assessed sperm longevity (proportion viable sperm determined using a dual-fluorochrome vital dye) at two different temperatures. At 23°C, on average, 75% of sperm remained viable after 2 h, but there were significant differences amongst males with the percentage of viable sperm ranging from 43% to 95%. For sperm incubated at 4°C, ejaculates varied fivefold in sperm longevity with some males having 50% viable sperm after 5 days. Our data suggest that ejaculate characteristics (sperm number, viability, and longevity) vary widely in Peron’s tree frog and may therefore play an important role in determining siring success both in the presence and absence of sperm competition. We discuss the results in relation to selection on ejaculate traits via natural and sexual selection in this and other amphibians.     

基于STIRPAT模型的环境压力空间差异分析——以能源消费为例

定量分析区域人文驱动力对环境的影响,对认识我国区域环境压力及其影响因素具有一定的科学意义.利用STIRPAT模型,以人口数量、富裕度为自变量,以能源消费总量为因变量,应用岭回归函数拟合得到环境压力模型.以研究结果为依据.利用Mapinfo7.0 软件分别绘制人口数量和富裕度对环境压力影响的空间差异图.结果显示,不同省份间人口数量和富裕度对环境压力影响存在显著差异.尽管各省份人口数量对环境压力都产生线性正效应影响,但影响强度有明显差异,最大者是最小者的8.079倍.富裕度对环境压力影响,有正效应或者负效应;有线性作用或者弹性作用.30个考察对象中,北京、上海、四川、新疆4个省市的富裕度二次项系数为负,这说明,在数据观测范围内以上4个省市的结果支持富裕度与环境压力间存在倒"U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线的观点;但这4个省市的环境压力并没有出现下降,这是由于各种人文驱动力影响的净效应决定了环境压力变化趋势.人口数量的增长对环境压力的上升存在较强正效应.因此,控制人口数量的速度对改善环境压力将起到关键作用.     

北京市气溶胶的时间变化与空间分布特征

以MODIS气溶胶遥感数据与同期AERONET监测数据为基础,应用统计分析、对比分析、时间序列分析等技术手段,研究了北京地区气溶胶的时间变化和空间分布特征.结果表明,气溶胶MODIS遥感反演数据和同期AERONET监测数据吻合较好,Pearson积矩相关系数为0 789,误差为ΔAOT550 = -0.077AOT 0.03.北京地区气溶胶550 nm光学厚度AOT和细粒比η的时间变化规律性明显:夏季以城市污染气溶胶为主,光学厚度最高,且具细粒特征;春季城市污染气溶胶和春季沙尘共存,光学厚度比较高,且粗粒占一定比例;冬季以采暖燃煤气溶胶为主,光学厚度不高,但是粗粒占较大比例;秋季大气清澈,气溶胶平均光学厚度仅为0.34.空间分布方面,主要受植被覆盖和产业结构等因素影响,位于西部北部山区的延庆、密云、怀柔和门头沟区气溶胶的光学厚度低,位于东南部平原地区的昌平、顺义、通县、大兴和房山区气溶胶光学厚度总体较高.     

绥棱县城镇环境噪声变化趋势的研究

绥棱县环境监测站自1987年以来,每年对城镇环境噪声进行一次监测。经过多年监测,获得监测数据30多万个,通过对比得出：工业噪声源的影响在逐年变小,工业声源影响构成百分比由20年前的38%降至现在的20%,但局部地区对附近居民的影响依旧存在;随着城镇建设速度的加快,建筑施工噪声源的影响在逐年加大,施工声源构成百分比由20年前的2%增加到12%;随着交通运输业的发展,车流量的逐年增多,道路交通噪声污染在逐年加重,超标路段由20年前的13.7%上升到现在的32.3%;目前处于超标环境中的面积率和人口率分别为51.9%和69.2%,白天居民生活居住区和混合区噪声污染较重,夜间有三分之一居住混合区污染还很严重。     

Runoff variation affected by precipitation change and human activity in Hailiutu River basin,China

For recent years, runoff generation and hydrological processes in Hailiutu River basin have been greatly changed by climate change and human activity, especially water and soil conservation construction. In this study, the trends in precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET) and river runoff as well as the effects of precipitation change and human activity on runoff variation have been studied. The results showed that during 1960–2000, annual precipitation and river runoff, monthly precipitation and ET in September and October as well as monthly runoff in all months showed a significant decrease. In addition, peak flow and base flow had a large decrease. Under the joint influence of precipitation change and human activity, the mean annual runoff decreased by 35 million m³ from the baseline period (1960–1985) to the change period (1986–2000), which accounted for 60.9% and 39.1% of the total runoff decrease, respectively. Precipitation change played a primary role in the decrease of annual runoff whereas human activity, particularly water and soil conservation construction, also had remarkable impacts on runoff variation.