城市河道水质恢复技术及发展趋势

在分析城市河道水体污染现状和污染源的基础上,介绍了物理、化学、生物生态等城市河道水质恢复技术,分析了不同技术的优缺点及适用性,并预测了城市河道水体恢复技术的发展趋势。     

基于震后低压变化的供水管网功能可靠度分析

供水管网的抗震功能是指供水管网在地震作用下能够满足震后城市特定用水需要(需水量和水压)的能力。地震发生后,供水管网一般处于低压供水状态,使得管网中部分用户的水压和水量不能得到全部满足,导致管网部分节点的实际配水量小于需水量。为此,在传统的管网水力分析基础上考虑节点流量随节点水压的动态变化,通过求解非线性水力方程组,得到管网节点实际流量和水压;同时,借鉴结构可靠度分析方法,引入供水管网系统随机水力模型,给出了震后供水管网功能可靠度分析的一次二阶矩方法。以一实际管网为例,演示了震后低压供水时管网功能可靠度分析的应用方法。     

三峡库区雷暴气候变化特征分析

利用长江三峡库区及其周边地区38个气象站1961～2001年的逐日雷暴资料,统计、分析了三峡库区雷暴日数及其初、终日的时空分布特征。结果表明：41年来,长江三峡库区年平均雷暴日数较多,一般为34～45 d,其中库区西北部和中南部为多雷区;年际变化大,最多年比最少年一般偏多27～61 d;整个库区年雷暴日数的变化均存在不同程度的减少趋势,气候倾向率为 1～7 d/10 a;雷暴出现的季节变化很明显,4～8月为多发时段;雷暴初日库区东部早于西部,终日东西段差别不大;雷暴持续期普遍在195～239 d之间,其中西部持续时间短,东部长;大部地区雷暴初日有推后的变化趋势,推迟速率约2～6 d/10 a;终日有提前的变化趋势,且提前速率为2～4 d/10 a;库区大部雷暴期呈缩短的变化趋势,缩短速率为2～8 d/10 a。     

人工园林大面积种植区土地利用/覆被变化对生态系统服务价值影响

近10a来由于经济利益的驱动,橡胶、茶园、咖啡和桉树等人工园林在云南省西南部西盟县大规模种植,使土地利用结构和布局发生了较大变化,影响了种植区的生态系统服务价值。以西盟县为研究对象,基于2000年、2005年和2010年的遥感影像解译的土地利用/覆被数据,参照"中国生态系统单位面积生态服务价值当量",修订了西盟县生态系统单位面积服务价值,结合敏感度分析,探讨了土地利用/覆被变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年西盟县的耕地、园地、水域和乡镇用地面积增加,林地和草地面积减少,西南部的土地利用/覆盖类型相互转化主要表现在林地和耕地转化为园地,而东北部表现在林地转化为耕地;(2)从时间上看,生态系统服务价值呈减少趋势,10 a间净减少106.29×106元,林地的生态系统服务价值始终最高;(3)研究期内,只有食物生产服务有价值量的增加,其余生态系统服务的价值量均为不同程度的减少;(4)从空间上看,西盟县生态系统服务价值东北部和东南部高,西部、中部和东部低。力所乡生态系统服务价值有小幅度增加,其余乡镇均呈减少趋势。西盟县以经济利益为目的的发展模式给生态系统服务和可持续发展带来巨大压力,在一定程度上使区域整体生态效应下降。因此,西盟县的发展应该在保证生态系统稳定的前提下,适当发展园地,同时优化土地利用结构,在生态效益和经济利益之间,找到双赢的平衡点。     

长江口潮滩沉积物中活性重金属的空间分异及控制机制

利用盐酸羟氨-25%醋酸溶液,提取了长江口潮滩沉积物中活性重金属含量。研究发现,长江口潮滩沉积物中活性重金属占总量的百分含量依次为Cu 26%,Pb 36%,Fe 7%,Mn 49%,Zn 32%,Cr 14%和Al 16%,沉积物基本未受到Cr污染,其余重金属污染程度处于中等偏下水平。除Zn、Cr外,其余活性重金属在夏季沉积物中的含量明显低于春季,其主要原因是夏季风暴潮将大量细颗粒泥沙及其富集的重金属带离潮滩进入了河口水体中。受点源污染排放及沉积物粒度影响,活性重金属在长江口南岸的浒浦、顾路和浦东机场出现峰值含量,且高潮滩含量明显高于中、低潮滩。在垂向上,重金属一般在沉积物表层或亚表层形成富集。在口门附近的滨岸潮滩沉积物中,Cu、Pb的空间分异主要受早期成岩作用的控制,在污染较为严重、水动力作用相对较弱的潮滩沉积物中,Cu、Pb的空间分异主要受沉积物中有机质含量变化的控制.     

“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨

从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。     

基于灰色模糊理论的流域水电规划环境影响综合评价

结合模糊优选理论和灰色关联分析方法,提出灰色模糊综合评价法,该方法将灰色关联分析作为优属度确定的隶属度计算方法;提出理想环境序列建立遵循的原则,引入梯形模糊数实现定性指标量化并采用变异系数法确定评价指标权重.应用灰色模糊综合评价法对黄河流域河段水电规划的高坝方案和多级开发方案进行了比选研究,计算了两个方案的优属度及其开发性因子、稳定性因子、保护性因子、经济活力因子、社会可接受因子、环境风险因子等6个指标层优属度,结果表明,多级开发方案总体优于高坝方案;多级开发方案的保护性远好于高坝开发方案,而高坝方案的开发性略好于多级开发方案,稳定性、经济活力、社会可接受、环境风险等因子两种方案比较接近.评价结果与流域实际情况比较符合,证明该方法是一种有效的方法.     

Pollution characterization and diurnal variation of PBDEs in the atmosphere of an E-waste dismantling region

Diurnal air samples were collected from the E-waste dismantling region Guiyu and the underwear industry region Chendian. This was the first report to present the diurnal variation of PBDEs in the atmosphere. The average concentrations of 11 PBDE congeners were 11,742 pg m⁻³ in the daytime, and 4830 pg m⁻³ at night in Guiyu, while the concentrations were lower in Chendian with 376 pg m⁻³ in the daytime, and 237 pg m⁻³ at night. BDE-209 accounted for 22% and 31.3% of the total PBDEs in Guiyu and Chendian, respectively. The diurnal variation trends of BDE-47, -99, -153, -183, and -209 were also analyzed in detail in the two regions.     

Rapid genetic erosion in pollutant-exposed experimental chironomid populations

Few studies have evaluated how effectively environmental contamination may reduce genetic diversity of a population. Here, we chose a laboratory approach in order to test if tributyltin (TBT) exposure at environmentally relevant concentrations leads to reduced genetic variation in the midge Chironomus riparius. Two TBT-exposed and two unexposed experimental populations were reared simultaneously in the laboratory for 12 generations. We recorded several life-history traits in each generation and monitored genetic variation over time using five variable microsatellite markers. TBT-exposed strains showed increased larval mortality (treatments: 43.8%; controls: 27.8%), slightly reduced reproductive output, and delayed larval development. Reduction of genetic variation was strongest and only significant in the TBT-exposed strains (treatments: −45.9%, controls: −24.4% of initial heterozygosity) after 12 generations. Our findings document that chemical pollution may lead to a rapid decrease in genetic diversity, which has important implications for conservation strategies and ecological management in polluted environments.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of PM10 concentration across Malaysia

The recurrence of forest fires in Southeast Asia and associated biomass burning, has contributed markedly to the problem of trans-boundary haze and the long-range movement of pollutants in the region. Air pollutants, specifically particulate matter in the atmosphere, have received extensive attention, mainly because of their adverse effect on people's health. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the PM10 concentration across Malaysia was analyzed by means of the rotated principal component analysis. The results suggest that the variability of the PM10 concentration can be decomposed into four dominant modes, each characterizing different spatial and temporal variations. The first mode characterizes the southwest coastal region of the Malaysian Peninsular with the PM10 showing a peak concentration during the summer monsoon i.e. when the winds are predominantly southerlies or southwesterlies, and a minimal concentration during the winter monsoon. The second mode features the region of western Borneo with the PM10 exhibiting a concentration surge in August–September, which is likely to be the result of the northward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the subsequent rapid arrival of the rainy season. The third mode delineates the northern region of the Malaysian Peninsular with strong bimodality in the PM10 concentration. Seasonally, this component exhibits two concentration maxima during the late winter and summer monsoons, as well as two minima during the inter-monsoon periods. The fourth dominant mode characterizes the northern Borneo region which exhibits weaker seasonality of the PM10 concentration. Generally, the seasonal fluctuation of the PM10 concentration is largely associated with the seasonal variation of rainfall in the country. However, in addition to this, the PM10 concentration also fluctuates markedly in two timescale bands i.e. 10–20 days quasi-biweekly (QBW) and 30–60 days lower frequency (LF) band of the intra-seasonal timescales. These intra-seasonal fluctuations show strong seasonality with the largest fraction of variance occurring during the boreal summer and the weakest variance during the winter. Generally, the LF intra-seasonal oscillation is stronger compared to the QBW intra-seasonal band.