邻避型PPP项目的运营模式与居民环境行为研究

运营模式的科学设计以及居民环境行为的有效管理是邻避型PPP项目能否成功的关键。针对邻避项目存在的低收益和居民环境行为转变难两大问题,本文基于计算实验理论与方法构建邻避型PPP项目的运营模式与居民环境行为模型。通过对利益相关主体的社会属性与行为变化规律分析,进而设计运营商、政府、居民和从业人员等主体的计算实验交互规则。模型与计算实验研究了邻避型PPP项目的运营状态和居民环境行为在自负盈亏与统一价格、最小收益保证与统一价格、固定收益率与统一价格、自负盈亏与阶梯价格、最小收益保证与阶梯价格、最小收益保证与阶梯价格以及固定收益率与阶梯价格等六种情景下的演变规律。研究发现:(1)阶梯价格能在短期内改善邻避型PPP项目的运营状况,统一价格机制更有利于项目长远发展。(2)自负盈亏并不是邻避型PPP项目的一个理想方案,收益担保是一个相对稳妥可行的选择,而固定收益率是一个对政府财政有高要求的优化模式,可优化居民环境行为并降低PPP项目的邻避效应。(3)自负盈亏模式下运营商无心开展环境教育和提高从业人员待遇,固定收益率模式有利于推行环境教育并提高从业人员待遇。(4)邻避型PPP项目的环境投入-环境意愿-环境行为之间存在时滞效应。这意味着,较难通过收益模式与价格机制的调整实现系统的最优化,市场的力量无法协调邻避型PPP项目目前存在的矛盾与冲突,需要政府统一管理价格并保证社会资本的回报。同时,改善居民环境行为和管理邻避项目是一个复杂系统工程,需要有系统的筹划与长期时间的积累。     

中国不同发展阶段地区环境可持续性状态与趋势研究

中国不同地区发展水平存在较大的差异．面临的环境问题和可持续发展的优先领域也不同。因此．可持续发展评价与政策制定需要与区域发晨实际相结合。选取上海、德州和固原三个地区作为中国发达、发展中和欠发达地区的代表．选择可操作和可比性强的指标．基子压力-状态-响应模型．构建了环境可持续性趋势系数．对比不同发展水平地区环境发展的状态、趋势和存在的主要问题。得出以下结论：近20年来．虽然中国总体环境保护能力有了一定的提高．但污染物排放压力持续增长．环境质量普遍恶化的趋势没有得到根本改变;上海、德州和固原环境可持续性趋势系数分别为0．82、0．55和0．45．发达地区环境可持续性最强．发展中地区一般．欠发达地区量差;目前我国环境政策领域往往注重经济发展的“两极”：高度发达地区和欠发达地区,本文的研究结果表明。面积占全国67％、人口占全国40％的发展中地区环境问题最为突出。     

广州市不同人群硒摄入量研究

通过酸消解、原子荧光-氢化物发生法测定了广州市市售109种常见食物中硒的含量,结合膳食结构计算了广州市不同人群的每日硒摄入量.结果表明,广州市不同食品硒含量有较大差异,均值为4.97～457.3 μg·kg-1,其中动物性食品硒含量明显高于植物性食品硒含量,硒含量较高的食品有动物内脏、鱼虾类、蛋及蛋制品、猪肉等,均大于150 μg·kg-1.广州市不同人群膳食硒摄入量有明显差别,不同收入人群的摄入量为高收入人群(102.6 μg·d-1)＞中收入人群(83.8 μg·d-1)＞低收入人群(66.6 μg·d-1);老人硒摄入量为73.3 μg·d-1,儿童为44.3 μg·d-1,大学生为86.8 μg·d-1,工人为69.7 μg·d-1;标准人摄入量为98.5 μg·d-1.动物性食品是广州居民硒摄入量的主要来源;其次是大米;蔬菜、水果和豆类及制品等植物性食品贡献很小.广州市不同人群每日硒摄入量处于良好水平.     

禾木景区社区居民旅游影响感知实证研究

旅游目的地居民作为旅游产业的重要利益相关者,对当地发展旅游业的感知和态度直接影响着当地旅游资源的合理利用及旅游业的健康发展.运用社会交互理论和道科西旅游发展阶段理论,通过问卷调查和实地访谈的方法,从四个维度研究了禾木景区社区居民对旅游影响的感知和态度.结果表明,当地居民对旅游经济的影响大都持乐观的支持态度,旅游发展使居民的生计方式、收入水平明显改善;对生活环境的影响较大,对生态环境和环保意识的影响较小;对居民的传统文化影响较弱,居民与游客的双向交流很少,旅游业仍处于初级发展阶段.因此,当地居民的旅游感知目前还停留在经济层面,缺少对传统文化、自然生态、环境保护等感知的关注.     

暴雨内涝对城市社区居民出行影响的初步分析——以上海市普陀区金沙居委地区为例

开展城市社区暴雨内涝模拟,初步分析受影响的居民数量.以上海市普陀区金沙居委地区为案例,利用上海市暴雨经验公式计算重现期为50年、100年、500年三种不同情景下的1h降水量,以修正的SCS模型计算径流量.结合上海市排水管网系统的运行状况和实测的研究区相对高程,模拟9种不同情景下暴雨积水的淹没深度,分析不同情景下受影响的房屋分布和对居民出行的影响.随着暴雨强度的增强,排水管网系统功能的失效,积水区域由研究区中部不断扩大.在重现期为500年的情景下,在排水系统完全失效的情况下,最大淹没深度可达0.405 m,道路积水影响出行的人数达到5 970人,占研究区总人口数的87％,已经严重影响到当地居民的日常生活和出行.     

Depressed resilience of bluefin tuna in the western atlantic and age truncation

Following intense overfishing in the 1970s, the western stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) experienced a long period of depressed abundance, which has been attributed to failure of the population to periodically produce large numbers of juveniles, the western stock mixing with the more highly exploited eastern stock (fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea), and regime shift in the population's ecosystem resulting in lower replacement rates. To evaluate the presence of relatively strong years of juvenile production, we analyzed age structure from a recent sample of otoliths (ear stones) collected from the western stock (2011–2013, North Carolina, U.S.A., winter fishery). Mixing levels for the recent sample were analyzed using otolith stable isotopes to test whether age structure might be biased through immigration of eastern stock bluefin tuna. Age structure from historical samples collected from United States and Canadian fisheries (1975–1981) was compared with more recent samples (1996–2007) to examine whether demographic changes had occurred to the western stock that might have disrupted juvenile production. Relatively high juvenile production occurred in 2003, 2005, and 2006. Otolith stable isotope analysis showed that these recruitments were mostly of western stock origin. However, these high recruitments were >2‐fold less than historical recruitment. We found substantial age truncation in the sampled fisheries. Half the historical sample was >20 years old (mean age = 20.1 [SD 3.7]; skewness = ?0.3), whereas <5% of the recent sample was >20 years old (mean age = 13.4 [SD 3.8]; skewness = 1.3). Loss of age structure is consistent with changes in fishing selectivity and trends in the stock assessment used for management. We propose that fishing, as a forcing variable, brought about a threshold shift in the western stock toward lower biomass and production, a shift that emulates the regime shift hypothesis. An abbreviated reproductive life span compromised resilience by reducing the period over which adults spawn and thereby curtailing the stock's ability to sample year‐to‐year variability in conditions that favor offspring survival (i.e., storage effect). Because recruitment dynamics by the western stock exhibit threshold dynamics, returning it to a higher production state will entail greater reductions in exploitation rates.     

Differences in sensitivity to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis among amphibian populations

Contributing to the worldwide biodiversity crisis are emerging infectious diseases, which can lead to extirpations and extinctions of hosts. For example, the infectious fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is associated with worldwide amphibian population declines and extinctions. Sensitivity to Bd varies with species, season, and life stage. However, there is little information on whether sensitivity to Bd differs among populations, which is essential for understanding Bd‐infection dynamics and for formulating conservation strategies. We experimentally investigated intraspecific differences in host sensitivity to Bd across 10 populations of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) raised from eggs to metamorphosis. We exposed the post‐metamorphic wood frogs to Bd and monitored survival for 30 days under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations differed in overall survival and mortality rate. Infection load also differed among populations but was not correlated with population differences in risk of mortality. Such population‐level variation in sensitivity to Bd may result in reservoir populations that may be a source for the transmission of Bd to other sensitive populations or species. Alternatively, remnant populations that are less sensitive to Bd could serve as sources for recolonization after epidemic events.     

包头市区居民慢性疾病患病危险因子研究

筛查包头市区居民慢性疾病患病危险因子.     

Effects of Agricultural Cultivation on Demographics of Southern High Plains Amphibians

Abstract:  Anthropogenic disturbance of landscapes surrounding wetlands is considered a factor in local and global amphibian declines. Few data exist on the effects of agricultural cultivation of wetland watersheds on amphibians, and results from previous studies are contradictory. Our objective was to test the effects of general anthropogenic land use (cultivation vs. grassland) on the demographics of seven species and three age classes of amphibians in the Southern High Plains of Texas. We partially enclosed 16 playa wetlands (4 per land use per year) with drift fences and pitfall traps and monitored relative daily abundance and diversity from 16 May to 17 October 1999 and 19 April to 18 August 2000. In general, relative abundance (i.e., average daily capture) of New Mexico and plains spadefoots (  Spea multiplicata, S. bombifrons ) was greater at cropland than grassland playas; the abundance of other species and diversity of the amphibian assemblage was not affected by land use. Also, abundance generally was greater in 1999 than 2000 for metamorph spadefoots and barred tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma tigrinum mavortium ). Differences in spadefoot abundance between land-use types may have been related to low species-specific vagility, resulting in increased nestedness within disturbed landscapes and reduced abundance of a potential keystone intraguild predator in cropland playas. The yearly difference in amphibian abundance was likely related to annual precipitation, which influenced wetland hydroperiod. Agricultural cultivation surrounding wetlands is associated with the increased abundance of some amphibian species, but other demographic and fitness parameters—such as temporal demographics, body size, and diet diversity—may be negatively affected.     

Threatened Peripheral Populations in Context: Geographical Variation in Population Frequency and Size and Sexual Reproduction in a Clonal Woody Shrub

Abstract:  Geographically peripheral populations of widespread species are often the focus of conservation because they are locally rare within political jurisdictions. Yet the ecology and genetics of these populations are rarely evaluated in a broader geographic context. Most expectations concerning the ecology and evolution of peripheral populations derive from the abundant-center model, which predicts that peripheral populations should be less frequent, smaller, less dense, and have a lower reproductive rate than central populations. We tested these predictions and in doing so evaluated the conservation value of peripheral populations for the clonal shrub Vaccinium stamineum L. (Ericaceae, deerberry), which is listed as threatened in Canada. Based on 51 populations sampled from the center to the northern range limits over 2 years, population frequency and size declined toward the range limit, but ramet density increased. Sexual reproductive output varied widely among populations and between years, with many populations producing very few seeds, but did not decline toward range margins. In fact seed mass increased steadily toward range limit, and this was associated with faster germination and seedling growth, which may be adaptive in seasonal northern environments. Our results did not support the prediction that clonal reproduction is more prevalent in peripheral populations or that it contributed antagonistically to the wide variation in seed production. Peripheral populations of V. stamineum are as productive as central populations and may be locally adapted to northern environments. This emphasizes the importance of a broad geographical perspective for evaluating the ecology, evolution, and conservation of peripheral populations.