山区土壤重金属空间插值性能的改进

山区土壤重金属监测中,密集均匀的布点采样困难大,成本高。根据稀疏非均匀样本数据准确预测山区土壤重金属空间分布,对可视化描述检测元素的分布及趋势具有重要意义。基于云南省楚雄市南部山区表层土壤中重金属锰、钒的采样数据,对集成径向基函数神经网络(IRBFANNs)和传统插值方法:反距离(IDW)、普通克里格(OK)、径向基函数神经网络(RBFANNs),进行了不同等级采样密度下的插值性能比较。结果表明,样本点数量减少时,传统预测方法的插值精度都有所下降,而IRBFANNs算法在样本点较少情况下能够保持最好的插值精确度和稳定性,有效改进了空间插值性能。     

Economies of scale in global iron-making

In this paper, we investigate the presence of economies of scale in the global iron-making industry for integrated steel plants, iron making being the first stage in the steel-making process. Iron making depends on basic commodities, such as iron ore, coke and various forms of energy, required in the operation of the blast furnace, which can be classified as essential inputs and used in fixed proportions to produce iron. A generalized Leontief cost function is estimated using panel data for 69 integrated plants, such a specification being appropriate for technologies with essential inputs that are used in fixed proportions in production. A significant scale effect is observed due to the existence of fixed costs and a linear dependence of the cost function on production. Under a simple linear cost function, a rough estimate of the breakeven scale of plant, where costs equal revenue, is 4.5 Mt per year. Competitiveness, as measured by the ratio of plant average cost per tonne to best practice cost per tonne, can be shown to be positively related to the scale of production as well as the cost of essential inputs. Therefore, low-cost producers are also often producers with low raw material costs and production levels below the estimated breakeven scale of operation. Labor costs, although significant, are comparatively less important as a driver towards low costs.     

Economic assessment of the health effects related to particulate matter pollution in 111 Chinese cities by using economic burden of disease analysis

With China's rapid economic development, environmental problems have become more and more serious. Particulate air pollution is terrible in cities with large and dense population. It may lead to adverse health effects and economic costs. In this study, we calculated the health effects of pollution caused by particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10mum (PM(10)) in 111 Chinese cities in 2004 according to statistical data and epidemiological exposure-response functions. Using economic burden of disease analysis, an economic assessment of these health risks was also presented. In contrast to many previous studies that have examined individual cities, this study covered most large and medium-sized cities in China, which accounted for more than 70% gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2004. The total economic cost caused by PM(10) pollution was estimated as approximately US$ 29,178.7 million. Mega cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin contribute relatively more to the total costs. The results will help policy makers in formulating more effective countermeasures and increasing public awareness to enhance environmental protection.     

环境监测数值修约在Excel中的实现

本文简要介绍了环境监测技术规范中所规定的数值修约规则及相关规范要求的主要内容,并给出了相应的Excel修约公式和修约函数,可方便地用于对环境监测工作中实验测定和计算得出的各种数值进行修约。修约公式是一个利用Excel工作表函数构造的满足数值修约基本规则的工作表计算公式,在给定修约位数的前提下,可直接在工作表单元格中使用修约公式对数值进行修约,对于简单应用,具有方便、快捷、直观的特点。修约函数是一个利用Excel VBA编制的自定义函数,共有四个参数,其调用方法同工作表函数,具有针对性强、灵活、便捷的特点,可根据环境监测技术规范的特定要求,实现自动按有效位数或小数位数进行数值修约,并按相应的格式输出数据。     

Injury risk functions for frontal oblique collisions

Objective: The objective of this article was the construction of injury risk functions (IRFs) for front row occupants in oblique frontal crashes and a comparison to IRF of nonoblique frontal crashes from the same data set.

Method: Crashes of modern vehicles from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) were used as the basis for the construction of a logistic injury risk model. Static deformation, measured via displaced voxels on the postcrash vehicles, was used to calculate the energy dissipated in the crash. This measure of accident severity was termed objective equivalent speed (oEES) because it does not depend on the accident reconstruction and thus eliminates reconstruction biases like impact direction and vehicle model year. Imputation from property damage cases was used to describe underrepresented low-severity crashes―a known shortcoming of GIDAS. Binary logistic regression was used to relate the stimuli (oEES) to the binary outcome variable (injured or not injured).

Results: IRFs for the oblique frontal impact and nonoblique frontal impact were computed for the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+ and 3+ levels for adults (18–64 years). For a given stimulus, the probability of injury for a belted driver was higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique frontal crashes. For the 25% injury risk at MAIS 2+ level, the corresponding stimulus for oblique crashes was 40 km/h but it was 64 km/h for nonoblique frontal crashes.

Conclusions: The risk of obtaining MAIS 2+ injuries is significantly higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique crashes. In the real world, most MAIS 2+ injuries occur in an oEES range from 30 to 60 km/h.     

基于ACF-AMDF的气井环空液面回波特征提取方法

为了精确有效地提取声波法检测气井环空液位的回波周期,在分析环空中测试波的传播特征及基音周期检测的基础上,提出1种基于检测信号短时自相关函数(ACF)及平均幅度差函数(AMDF)的液面回波周期提取方法;利用自主搭建的室内模拟实验系统开展了不同初始环空压力下环空液位检测实验;对检测信号进行中心削波处理并计算ACF/AMDF,提取出液面回波周期并与理论计算值对比分析;同时分析了现场环空液位检测信号,提取其回波周期。研究结果表明:提出的新方法能有效地用于提取环空液面回波周期;室内实验中,该方法最大误差绝对值为1.54%;该方法能够有效抑制液面回波信号中的随机噪声及接箍反射波等,处理后的信号曲线在回波周期处峰值更加突出、集中,而在其他位置更加平滑,提高了对液面回波周期特征的辨识能力。     

基于情感思维的安全管理模式研究

为促进安全管理,提高效率与效果,对基于情感思维的安全管理进行研究,将情感思维融于安全管理,基于情感思维的定义、内涵及功能,具体分析安全管理中情感思维的功能及其功能综合作用,建立安全管理中情感思维功能作用理论模型;根据该理论模型分析情感思维驱动力及强化作用及其对安全目标实现的影响;建立基于情感思维的安全管理设计模式,最后提出优化安全管理的措施与方法,以促进安全管理的实施。研究表明:基于情感思维的安全管理研究,能较好地体现安全管理人本原理,发挥情感的能动作用,将理性融入其中与情感进行平衡,实现安全管理的优化。     

基于SVR的船舶溢油事故预测

船舶溢油事故的预测,是确定所需应急资源多少的重要依据;但船舶溢油事故具有小样本性,传统预测方法不再适用。针对船舶溢油事故的小样本性,该文选择SVR模型对其进行预测;SVR算法的关键是核函数的选择及自由参数的确定,针对上述问题该文分别采用交叉验证法、遗传算法;并在matlab软件上建立SVR模型,最后将该模型应用于上海港水域船舶溢油事故的预测。     

县域生态功能区划研究——以巩义市为例

文章结合河南省巩义市的实例,对县城小尺度生态功能区划分的方法和指标选取进行实际应用的探讨。巩义市生态功能区划采用2级分区（生态区和生态功能区）的等级体系。其中,生态功能区的划分采用定量与定性相结合的方法,定量分析中选取了形成生态系统特征、影响生态服务功能的14个特征因子进行聚类分析,在此基础上,再采用主导标志法进行区域划分。最后提出巩义市4个生态区和8个生态功能区的二级生态功能区划方案。     

哈尔滨松北滩涂湿地功能探析

湿地被誉为“地球之肾”。长期以来,它的价值不为人们所知晓。松花江北岸滩涂湿地生态系统,既保持着独立的自然属性,又与城市融为一体,是我国大城市中最大的城市湿地。本文通过调查分析,探析松北滩涂湿地的功能,使人们看清它的价值,保护湿地。