奈曼旗沙漠化土地动态变化分析

本文利用两期TM卫片对奈曼旗五个苏木的沙漠化土地动态进行了分析。10年间沙漠伦土地总面积减少了457.82km^2，但同期耕地面积净增加了394.08km^2；同时，流动沙地面积增加了139.62km^2，图斑数降低到了50％，流动沙地明显扩展，斑块间发生合并，集中连片的趋势严峻。不同苏木沙漠化土地变化表明，土地利用方式对其有明显影响。     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

应用BP神经网络预测嵌岩桩竖向承载力的研究

利用BP神经网络,建立了嵌岩桩竖向承载力预测的BP神经网络模型,采用嵌岩桩竖向承载力的实验数据对网络进行了训练,并以此训练好的BP神经网络对嵌岩桩承载力进行了预测。预测结果表明,该模型具有很高的预测精度,为预测嵌岩桩承载力提供了一种新的方法。     

低空分层降水和云水同步采集系统的开发和应用

笔者自行开发并研制了低空（ ＜ １ ｋｍ） 分层降水和云水采集系统，该系统成功地应用于福建省厦门市和贵州省贵阳市酸性降水来源和成因的研究中，取得了显著的成果，为探讨酸性降水来源和成因提供了有效的技术手段和支持。该系统可以在一定程度上代替航空测量，目前国内外的类似研究中没有使用该系统进行样品采集的先例，因此该系统的开发填补了国内外相关研究领域的空白     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km²,冰储量约2592.85 km³,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km³。（2）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km²的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km²冰川为主,共计6833.71 km²,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。（3）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km²,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km³。（4）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。（5）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。     

西昆仑山区土壤垂直带谱

西昆仑山区位于青藏高原西北隅,高山深谷,原面广阔,地形复杂,气候多样,致使本区土壤垂直带谱类型众多,概分为极干旱、干旱、半干旱和高寒干旱、高寒半干旱5个类型。其中干旱和半干旱型土壤垂直带谱中广布着草原和草甸草原,是塔里木盆地南缘重要的天然牧场。特别是半干旱型中还有云杉林分布,是昆仑山系唯一森林分布区。 本区土壤垂直带谱在边缘山脉与内部山脉之间,低海拔山地与耸立在5000m左右高原面上的高海拔山地之间有明显的差别。     

Spatial variations in daily average CO2 concentrations above wetland surface of Xianghai National Nature Reserve, China

Horizontal and vertical variations of daily average CO2 concentration above the wetland surface were studied in Xianghai National Nature Reserve of China in August, 2000. The primary purpose was to study spatial distribution characteristics of CO2 concentration on the four levels of height(0.1 m, 0.6 m, 1.2 m and 2 m) and compare the differences of CO2 concentration under different land covers. Results showed that daily average CO2 concentration above wetland surface in Xianghai National Natural Reserve was lower than that above other wetlands in northeast China as well as the worldwide average, suggesting that Xianghai wetland absorbed CO2 in August and acted as“sink” of CO2. The horizontal variations on the four levels of height along the latitude were distinct, and had the changing tendency of“decreasing after increasing” with the increase of height. The areas with obvious variations were consistent on different levels of height,and those with the highest variations appeared above surface of shore, sloping field, Typha wetland and Phragmites wetland; the vertical variations were greatly different, with the higher variations in Phragmites wetland and Typha wetland, and the lands near the shore and the sloping field with the lower variations. Spatial variations of daily average CO2 concentrations above wet!and surface were affected by surface qualities and land covers.     

省域生态环境质量动态评价及差异研究

以2010~2015年30个省域为研究对象，采用“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”框架构建评价指标体系，运用逐层纵横向拉开档次法确定指标权重，运用“时间度”和“熵值”法确定时间权重，构建TOWA-GA混合算子生态环境质量动态评价模型.结果表明：6a来，30个省域生态环境质量总体均值为0.837，整体呈好转趋势，但省域间差异明显.通过Theil指数分析发现，省域间总体差异下降了15.91%，人口密度和人口自然增长率是省域间差异的主要影响因素.