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61.
Black liquor gasification–combined cycle (BLGCC) is a new technology that has the potential to increase electricity production of a chemical pulping mill. Increased electricity generation in combination with the potential to use biomass (e.g. bark, hog fuel) more efficiently can result in increased power output compared to the conventional Tomlinson-boiler. Because the BLGCC enables an integrated pulp and paper mill to produce excess power, it can offset electricity produced by power plants. This may lead to reduction of the net-CO2 emissions. The impact of BLGCC to offset CO2 emissions from the pulp and paper industry is studied. We focus on two different plant designs and compare the situation in Sweden and the US. The CO2 emissions are studied as function of the share of recycled fibre used to make the paper. The study shows that under specific conditions the production of “CO2-free paper” is possible. First, energy efficiency in pulp and paper mills needs to be improved to allow the export of sufficient power to offset emissions from fossil fuels used in boilers and other equipment. Secondly, the net-CO2 emission per ton of paper depends strongly on the emission reduction credits for electricity export, and hence on the country or grid to which the paper mill is connected. Thirdly, supplemental use of biomass to replace fossil fuel inputs is important to reduce the overall emissions of the pulp and paper industry. 相似文献
62.
Ryan C. Schwartz Peter J. Deadman Daniel J. Scott Linda D. Mortsch 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(3):647-662
ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities. 相似文献
63.
基于可接受安全间距的单车道交通流模拟模型 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
交通流微观模拟是采用计算机对交通流进行描述及分析的方法。尤其对于复杂的交通流而言,微观模拟具有明显的优势,然而模拟的准确与否,关键在于模型的建立。笔者即是在研究我国单车道交通流特点的基础上,借鉴车道变换理论,基于驾驶员可接受的交通安全间距,分析安全变换车道的各间距之间的关系,阐述了有超车的单车道交通流模拟模型的建立方法 相似文献
64.
随着矿物能源开采消耗量的急剧增加,煤炭开采安全、能源开采和消耗引起的生态环境改变及破坏、世界石油市场油价波动对经济增长的不利影响、水电等可再生能源所占比重较低等,构成了制约可持续发展的能源安全问题。能源安全工程研究体系由区域能源开发消费安全、合理能源结构和消费布局、能源安全战略及相关法律法规等研究内容组成。通过分层次研究和循环促进,开展能源安全战略、能源安全技术、能源生态关系、能源安全经济的系统研究,为科学解决能源安全问题、实现国家或区域社会经济的可持续发展,提供了理论支持和科技保障。 相似文献
65.
The Water Fluxes of the Yellow River to the Sea in the Past 50 Years, in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities 总被引:12,自引:1,他引:12
Jiongxin X 《Environmental management》2005,35(5):620-631
Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and “natural” river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0°C, from 16.5°C to 17.5°C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%. 相似文献
66.
Summary The balance of evidence suggests a perceptible human influence on global ecosystems. Human activities are affecting the global
ecosystem, some directly and some indirectly. If researchers could clarify the extent to which specific human activities affect
global ecosystems, they would be in a much better position to suggest strategies for mitigating against the worst disturbances.
Sophisticated statistical analysis can help in interpreting the influence of specific human activities on global ecosystems
more carefully. This study aims at identifying significant or influential human activities (i.e. factors) on CO2 emissions using statistical analyses. The study was conducted for two cases: (i) developed countries and (ii) developing
countries. In developed countries, this study identified three influential human activities for CO2 emissions: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) population pressure on natural and terrestrial ecosystems, and (iii) land
use change. In developing countries, the significant human activities causing an upsurge of CO2 emissions are: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) terrestrial ecosystem strength and (iii) land use change. Among these
factors, combustion of fossil fuels is the most influential human activity for CO2 emissions both in developed and developing countries. Regression analysis based on the factor scores indicated that combustion
of fossil fuels has significant positive influence on CO2 emissions in both developed and developing countries. Terrestrial ecosystem strength has a significant negative influence
on CO2 emissions. Land use change and CO2 emissions are positively related, although regression analysis showed that the influence of land use change on CO2 emissions was still insignificant. It is anticipated, from the findings of this study, that CO2 emissions can be reduced by reducing fossil-fuel consumption and switching to alternative energy sources, preserving exiting
forests, planting trees on abandoned and degraded forest lands, or by planting trees by social/agroforestry on agricultural
lands. 相似文献
67.
This study integrated aerial photographs from 1952, 1981, and 1998, and a satellite image from 2000 with oral histories and
socioeconomic surveys to assess changes in forest and land cover in Ang Nhai village, Laos. The study documents the history
of resource use and changes in household access to resources in the village. Three distinctive trends were observed in terms
of forest and land cover—forest degradation, deforestation, and regeneration. Project results suggest that land and forest
cover change dynamically under different circumstances. The case study also points out that integration into the market economy
can induce intensification of unused lowland areas, while removing pressures from upland areas previously used for supplementing
agricultural production. In addition, the creation of a national reserve forest to restrict local access and forest use was
an ineffective tool for regulating encroachment and logging activities. 相似文献
68.
Glenn A. Hodgkins Robert W. Dudley Thomas G. Huntington 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(2):403-411
ABSTRACT: High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =?0.37, p= 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001). 相似文献
69.
为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。 相似文献
70.
Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO2 concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective. 相似文献