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721.
"二重源解析"模型计算结果的误差是采样误差、样品处理误差、化学组分分析误差、数据处理误差以及数学模型误差等所有误差的积累。提出了"二重源解析"解析结果的相对误差和标准偏差表达式,并用之计算了某市利用"二重源解析"模型计算的源贡献值的相对误差和标准偏差,还针对从源排放出来的初始态颗粒物在传输过程中发生的扬尘态变化提出了扬尘转化率的概念和计算方法。 相似文献
722.
Mark C. Stone Rollin H. Hotchkiss Carter M. Hubbard Thomas A. Fontaine Linda O. Mearns Jeff G. Arnold 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2001,37(5):1119-1129
ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO2 climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO2 levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis. 相似文献
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Lauren E. Hay Robert L. Wilby George H. Leavesley 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2000,36(2):387-397
ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution. 相似文献
725.
Barbara J. Morehouse 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2000,36(2):265-277
ABSTRACT: Stresses on water resources in the Southwest take many forms and emanate from many different sources, among which are complex institutional arrangements, significant areal and temporal climatic variability, and high urban growth rates. Further challenges to managing supply and demand in this water‐scarce region are posed by environmental, social, and legal differences within and between the individual urban areas. Analysis of the sensitivity of the urban water sector in the Southwest to climatic variability requires careful consideration of these factors. Such analysis, in turn, provides an essential foundation for effective evaluation of the region's sensitivity to longer term climate change. 相似文献
726.
Reginald Blake Reza Khanbilvardi Cynthia Rosenzweig 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2000,36(2):279-292
ABSTRACT: It has been well established that the greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century. Consequently, shifts in the earth's radiative balance are expected with accompanying alterations to the earth's climate. With these anticipated, and perhaps already observable, changes in both global and regional climate, managers of regional water resources seek insight to the possible impacts climate change may have on their present and future water supplies. The types and degrees of impacts that climate change may have on New York City's water supply system were assessed in a study of a watershed at Allaben, New York. Hypothetical scenarios of future climate and climate change projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used in conjunction with the WatBal hydrological model and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to ascertain how runoff and soil moisture from this watershed may change in a warmer climate. For the worst case predictions, the results indicate that within the century of the 2000s, the watershed's air temperature may increase up to about 11°F, while its precipitation and runoff may decrease by about 13 and 30 percent, respectively. If this watershed is typical of the others within the New York City water supply system, the system's managers should consider implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in preparation for the worst of these possible future conditions. 相似文献
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2009年秋季利用河北省人工影响天气办公室机载气溶胶粒子探头(PCASP-100X)和前向散射滴谱探头(FSSP-100-ER)在石家庄市上空进行了多次气溶胶观测.选取2009年9~10月间的7架次雾天、1架次小雨天及1架次密卷云天观测资料,重点研究雾天气溶胶粒子数浓度和直径的垂直、水平分布特征及粒子谱分布,并与密卷云天和小雨天的探测资料进行对比分析.结果表明:石家庄地区气溶胶粒子数浓度较高,近地面最大值达11910个/cm3.气溶胶粒子数浓度主要受天气条件影响,逆温层是影响粒子垂直输送的主要因素,在逆温层下粒子累积形成粒子数浓度的高值区,逆温层以上气溶胶粒子数浓度迅速减少,雾天和密卷云天粒子数浓度随高度多呈负指数分布;雾天多伴有逆温层和较大空气湿度,有利于气溶胶粒子累积,数浓度一般可达104个/cm3以上,容易形成低能见度污染天气;气溶胶粒子数浓度在无降水日有累积效应,降雨对气溶胶粒子有明显清除作用;粒子数浓度和粒子直径在水平方向上呈不均匀分布,随着高度增加粒子数浓度和直径的水平绝对偏差减小,相对偏差往往增大;不同天气下尺度谱型类似,多呈单峰分布,在0.11μm左右处出现峰值,但在雾天、密卷云天、小雨天气下的气溶胶粒子峰值依次变小,并且随高度增加,尺度谱峰值数密度值降低,谱变窄. 相似文献
730.
土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展 总被引:35,自引:3,他引:32
随着社会的不断进步和人口的迅速膨胀,土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程产生了重大影响,其研究已经成为国际热点问题和前沿领域。论文首先分析了LUCC水文效应的研究方法,然后从土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力方面:造林与毁林、城市化过程与农业开发活动以及水土保持等,概述了LUCC水文效应的研究进展。综合分析表明:关于城市化过程的水文影响研究,一般认为,在城市化快速发展的驱动下,不透水面积大量增加,改变了水量平衡状况,造成入渗减少,洪峰流量增大,但不同地区城市化发展程度的不同使得水文效应的表现也不相同;水土保持水文效应的研究一般认为,水土保持通过植树造林、种草、修建梯田、淤地坝等措施,使得区域/流域下垫面覆盖状况发生了很大的改变,造成年径流和洪峰流量减少,而使入渗和枯季径流增加,但因地理位置和气象条件等方面的差异,不同地区水土保持产生的水文影响也有所差别;造林与毁林、农业开发活动对水文过程的影响则因研究尺度、区域位置、气象条件、研究对象等因素的影响出现了较大的差异。因此,需考虑多方面因素的影响,正确评价土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应,为水土资源的合理配置和可持续利用提供科学依据。 相似文献