Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

Assessing impacts on urban greenspace,waterways, and vegetation in urban planning

Parks, waterways, and vegetation enhance the well-being of urbanites and thus warrant consideration in planning and policy-making. It is, however, difficult to assess how land-use change may impact these features and how this in turn may impact well-being. I use a case-study approach to present a framework that combines geospatial and economic valuation techniques to generate indicators of the effects of land-use policies that alter these amenities on community well-being. This framework quantifies the impacts of land-use change on urban environmental amenities in a way that could help communities plan land use so as to maintain well-being as they urbanise.     

Modeling Land-Use Change in a Decision-Support System for Coastal-Zone Management

RaMCo is a prototype version of a decision-support system for coastal-zone management. The model is based on the findings of a multidisiciplinary research program, conducted in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Different management strategies can be compared on the basis of the short- and long-term consequences. Land-use change has been included in RaMCo in view of the impacts of land-based human activities on the marine environment. The key aspect of the model is a combination of the temporal dynamics of land-use change on the regional (macro-level) scale and spatial dynamics on the local (micro-level) scale. Constrained cellular automata are used to integrate both scale levels. The state changes of the cells depend on the consistency with the macro-scale model, local geographical conditions, and interaction with neighboring cells. In this paper, we discuss the underlying theoretical assumptions of the macro-scale and micro-scale models, some characteristic results for land-use change in the study area, and the validation problem.     

Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate1

Stedinger, Jery R. and Veronica W. Griffis, 2011. Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):506‐513. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00545.x Abstract: Modeling variations in flood risk due to climate change and climate variability are a challenge to our profession. Flood‐risk computations by United States (U.S.) federal agencies follow guidelines in Bulletin 17 for which the latest update 17B was published in 1982. Efforts are underway to update that remarkable document. Additional guidance in the Bulletin as to how to address variation in flood risk over time would be welcome. Extensions of the log‐Pearson type 3 model to include changes in flood risk over time would be relatively easy mathematically. Here an example of the use of a sea surface temperature anomaly to anticipate changes in flood risk from year to year in the U.S. illustrates this opportunity. Efforts to project the trend in the Mississippi River flood series beg the question as to whether an observed trend will continue unabated, has reached its maximum, or is really nothing other than climate variability. We are challenged with the question raised by Milly and others: Is stationarity dead? Overall, we do not know the present flood risk at a site because of limited flood records. If we allow for historical climate variability and climate change, we know even less. But the issue is not whether stationarity is dead – the issue is how to use all the information available to reliably forecast flood risk in the future: “Where do we go from here?”     

Biomass fuel use,burning technique and reasons for the denial of improved cooking stoves by Forest User Groups of Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary,Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the structural linkages of product quality, corporate image, store image, and price on customer satisfaction and loyalty towards green products usage in Malaysia. The research used structural equation modelling technique via AMOS 21.0 computer program for data analysis across a sample of 200 university students who applies a green lifestyle, such as purchasing green products which are referring to only retail goods, using recyclable products, and ozone-free products. Empirical analysis divulged that product quality followed by corporate image, store image, and product price jointly affected customer satisfaction in using green products. They are highly concerned that the green store provides a variety of good quality products with good value for money. Marketers should aggressively promote the identification of green products and overcome the problem of just noticeable difference between green product and non-green product among consumers for business sustainability. Empirical findings provide valuable insights to put forth in outlining effective marketing strategies that widen the marketers’ understanding of consumer behaviour in using green products with regard to their satisfaction and loyalty levels from the perspective of product quality, corporate image, store image, and product prices in Malaysia markets.     

Physical Determinants of Methane Oxidation Capacity in a Temperate Soil

Methane oxidation capacity of soil from an experimentalsite in Northwest England was strongly dependent on temperatureand percentage water holding capacity. The soil had a distincttemperature optimum of 25 °C, with capacity for net methaneoxidation being completely lost below 5 and greater than37 °C. Optimum percentage water holding capacity for methaneoxidation was in the range 30–60%, with significant reductions inmethane oxidation rates in soils outside this range. Organic andmineral layers within the soil showed differences in potentialmethane oxidation rate, with methane oxidation being most rapid inthe buried organic layer and least rapid in the surface organiclayer. The importance of soil structure and gas diffusionlimitation is underlined, as is the strong temperature dependenceof methane oxidation when such diffusion limitation is removed.     

豫西地区植被覆盖的空间变化研究

应用遥感技术,利用长时间序列的SPOT VEGETATION NDVI数据集,结合改进的像元二分模型,对豫西山区1998年、2003年和2008年的植被覆盖度进行计算。结果表明,豫西山区植被覆盖总体上略有上升,局部地区植被覆盖度有所下降。高海拔区域植被覆盖相对稳定,退化概率较低;低海拔区域植被退化和恢复的概率都相对较高;坡度小的区域植被退化和修复的概率都较高;坡度较大的区域植被轻微退化概率增大,坡度越大,植被覆盖修复的概率越低;南坡和北坡植被覆盖度相对较高,东坡和西坡植被覆盖度较低;西南坡向的植被退化相对严重,东南坡向植被退化概率相对较低。     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.