近场地震作用下库区深水钢筋混凝土高墩地震易损性分析∗

为研究近场地震作用下库区深水钢筋混凝土高墩的概率损伤特性,以90 m高的矩形空心薄壁钢筋混凝土深水高墩为研究对象,综合考虑桥墩设计参数和近场地震动的随机性,基于OpenSees软件建立深水高墩有限元模型,开展不同水深的7种工况(水深:0、15、30、45、60、75、90 m)下,顺桥向和横桥向近场地震激励的增量动力非线性分析。以截面临界曲率值为损伤指标,研究深水高墩的易损性。结果表明:各工况下,轻微损伤、中等损伤和严重损伤阶段的损伤概率均随地震波峰值加速度的增加而增大,并且当峰值加速度达到1.0g时损伤概率达到最大,而完全损伤阶段的损伤概率则在峰值加速度为0.5g时出现峰值点;近场地震顺桥向激励时,墩身中上部和墩底区域均较容易损伤,而横桥向激励时仅墩底区域较容易损伤;当水深超过45 m后,高墩最大损伤概率变化不大且截面曲率概率需求基本一致,45 m水深为深水高墩显著水深。因此,应重点分析水深达到高墩高度一半时深水高墩的损伤情况。     

岷江上游生态脆弱性评价

岷江上游流域是我国典型的生态脆弱区之一,由于地质变化频繁、高差显著、气候干旱,加上人为活动影响,生态脆弱性的表现十分明显。通过对其生态环境脆弱性因素及成因机制的分析,构建了由土地生产力、地表起伏度、干燥度指数、土壤侵蚀强度、草场退化荒漠化率、物种消失率等14个指标组成的岷江上游生态脆弱性的评价指标体系;根据本地区生态环境现状、全国和四川省情况及奋斗目标,建立了Ⅰ到Ⅲ级的评价标准体系;利用模糊数学聚类方法对评价指标进行分析计算,得出了岷江上游生态环境为第Ⅲ级,即生态环境非常脆弱的结论。评价结果符合岷江上游地区的生态环境状况。     

典型水源地地下水污染风险评价

地下水污染是由含水层本身的脆弱性与人类活动产生的污染负荷造成的。污染物的荷载可以控制或改变,但是含水层的敏感性是本质的、天然的特性。污染风险不仅取决于相对稳定、不宜改变的含水层天然特征,还取决于主观的污染活动。因此,从地下水天然防污性能、地下水污染源荷载以及地下水社会效益3个方面评价了典型水源地地下水受污染的风险。     

The Dynamics of Rural Vulnerability to Global Change: The Case of southern Africa

Research on the agricultural impacts of global change frequently emphasizesthe physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, yet globalchanges associated with the internationalization of economic activity mayalso have significant impacts on food systems. Together, climate change andglobalization are exposing farmers to new and unfamiliar conditions.Although some farmers may be in a position to take advantage of thesechanges, many more are facing increased vulnerability, particularly in thedeveloping world. This paper considers the dynamics of agriculturalvulnerability to global change through the example of southern Africa. Wedemonstrate that the combination of global and national economic changesis altering the context under which southern African farmers cope withclimate variability and adapt to long-term change. We find that farmers whoformerly had difficulty adapting to climatic variability may become lessvulnerable to drought-related food shortages as the result of tradeliberalization. At the same time, however, removal of national credit andsubsidies may constrain or limit adaptation strategies of other farmers,leaving them more vulnerable to climate variability and change.     

Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future

If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO₂ were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Field study of TCE diffusion profiles below DNAPL to assess aquitard integrity

An area where a free-product accumulation of trichloroethylene (TCE) dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) occurs at the bottom of a 10-m-thick surficial sand aquifer was studied to determine the integrity of the underlying, 20-m-thick, clayey silt aquitard formed of glaciolacustrine sediment. TCE concentration-versus-depth profiles determined from aquitard cores collected at five locations indicated penetration of detectable TCE 2.5 to 3.0 m into the aquitard. Two of the profiles show persistent DNAPL at the aquitard interface, while two others indicate that DNAPL, present initially, was completely dissolved away producing concentration declines at the aquitard interface. The fifth profile suggests shallow DNAPL penetration (<0.5 m) into the aquitard, however, this penetration, which was likely caused by cross-contamination during core collection or cone penetrometry (CPT) of the aquitard interface, did not increase the maximum depth of TCE penetration. Combining the field profiles with one-dimensional model simulations, downward migration of the aqueous TCE front, defined as the EPA MCL of 5 microg/l, which was below the analytical detection limit, was projected to a distance between 4 and 5 m below the top of the aquitard. Using a single set of estimated aquitard parameter values, simulations of aqueous TCE migration into the aquitard provided a good fit to four of the field profiles with a migration time of 35 to 45 years, consistent with the history of TCE use at the site. These simulations indicate aqueous TCE migration is diffusion-dominated with only small advective influence by the downward groundwater velocity of 2 to 3 cm/year or less in the aquitard due to pumping of the underlying aquifer to supply water to the facility in the past 50 years. The applicability of the parameter values was confirmed by in situ diffusion experiments of 1-year duration, in which stainless steel cylinders containing DNAPL were inserted into the aquitard. The diffusion-dominated nature of the profiles indicates that the aquitard provides long-term protection of the underlying aquifer from contamination from this DNAPL zone. Simulations of long-term migration of the TCE solute front indicate breakthrough to the lower aquifer at 1200 years for the no advection scenario and at 500 years if the strong downward hydraulic gradient persists. However, even after breakthrough, the mass flux through the aquitard to the underlying aquifer remains relatively low, and when considered in terms of potential impacts to pumping wells, concentrations are not expected to increase significantly above present-day MCLs. The use of contaminant profiles of different time and distance scales, in addition to hydraulic data, dramatically improves the ability to assess aquitard integrity, and provides improved transport parameter values for estimating contaminant arrival times and fluxes. The apparent lack of deep preferential pathways for TCE migration, such as open fractures, is probably due to the softness of the silty aquitard deposit and minimal physical or chemical weathering of the aquitard provides long-term protection of the underlying aquifer from contamination from this DNAPL zone. Simulations of long-term migration of the TCE solute front indicate breakthrough to the lower aquifer at 1200 years for the no advection scenario and at 500 years if the strong downward hydraulic gradient persists. However, even after the breakthrough, the mass flux through the aquitard to the underlying aquifer remains relatively low, and when considered in terms of potential impacts to pumping wells , concentrations are not expected to increase significantly above present-day MCLs. The use of contaminant profiles of different time and distance scales, in addition to hydraulic data, dramatically improves the ability to assess aquitard integrity, and provides improved transport parameter values for estimating contaminant arrival times and fluxes. The apparent lack of deep preferential pathways for TCE migration, such as open fractures, is probably due to the softness of the silty aquitard deposit and minimal physical or chemical weathering of the aquitard.     

Health-dependent vulnerability to predation affects escape responses of unguarded chinstrap penguin chicks

Predators may select more often to attack the more vulnerable prey or those with an inferior health status. Thus, prey should be able to assess their own vulnerability to predation and modify their antipredatory behavior accordingly. When approached by predator skuas, unguarded penguin chicks flee short distances, and usually aggregate in dense packs, but there is a clear interindividual variability in their responses under similar conditions. We hypothesized that this variability in escape responses might be related to the perceived vulnerability to predation of each individual chick. We simulated predator attacks to chinstrap penguin chicks and analyzed the sources of variation in their escape response, such as the presence of adults or the density of other chicks, and the sex, age, body condition, and health status of responding chicks. Chicks allowed shorter approach distances when they had a better health condition (i.e., a greater T-cell-mediated immunity, CMI), when they were younger, and when the density of adults around was higher. Sex and density of other chicks were not important. Similarly, chicks fled from the experimenter to longer distances when they had a lower CMI and when the density of adults was lower. Therefore, escape characteristics of chicks depended on the presence of adults that can deter predators and on the health-dependent vulnerability of chicks.     

Antipredator responses of California ground squirrels to rattlesnakes and rattling sounds: the roles of sex,reproductive parity,and offspring age in assessment and decision-making rules

California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) and northern Pacific rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridus oreganus) have an adversarial relationship. Adults are partially protected by venom resistance and harass rattlesnakes in part to defend their more vulnerable offspring. Larger, warmer snakes are more dangerous than smaller colder snakes, and in escalated conflict squirrels could benefit from risk assessment strategies. Rattlesnakes often rattle at harassing squirrels and rattling sounds produce cues related to body size and temperature. In study 1 we played back rattling sounds from snakes that varied in dangerousness and evaluated the roles of sex and parity in squirrel risk assessment strategies. In general, squirrels tail flagged and stood bipedally more, and were slower to reapproach the playback speaker following playbacks of rattling sounds from more dangerous snakes. In comparison with males and nonmothers, mothers were most responsive to rattling sounds and more sensitive to variation in snake dangerousness. Mothers tail flagged more than males and nonmothers, and this behavior tracked variation in snake dangerousness most closely, perhaps reflecting the effects of snake size and temperature on pup vulnerability. These findings suggest that many aspects of squirrel antisnake behavior are governed by their effects on descendant kin. In study 2 we tested the effects of offspring age on mothers responses to live rattlesnakes and rattling sounds. According to the offspring value hypothesis, mothers should take more risks in defense of older offspring because they are more likely to survive to reproductive age. By contrast, under the offspring vulnerability hypothesis, older offspring are less vulnerable to predators and thus mothers should take fewer risks. Risk-taking, as measured by behaviors that bring the squirrel close to the snakes strike range, was either unaffected by or negatively correlated with offspring age. Thus, our findings suggest that whereas offspring value is unimportant in squirrel antisnake behavior, offspring vulnerability may affect maternal defense. We suggest that offspring vulnerability in mammals, in comparison with birds, may play a larger role in parental defense against predators.Communicated by P.A. BednekoffAn erratum to this article can be found at     

基于脆弱性分析的隧道施工安全管理问题研究

隧道施工安全管理不仅要关注常规体系下的技术细节,更要注重安全管理系统本身脆弱性所带来的突变。从脆弱性的角度进行隧道施工安全管理系统自身薄弱环节的辨识和分析。首先基于系统脆弱性的内涵分析了隧道施工安全管理系统的组成要素及内外部扰动源,形成了隧道施工安全管理脆弱性的分析模式。随后,基于ISM方法剖析脆弱性因素间的耦合关系,将其划分为11个层级,从而构建了脆弱性评价的层级体系。最后,以山西吕梁某隧道施工项目为例,分析安全管理资料和两起安全事故,提出了该项目安全管理系统的脆弱性因素及有针对性的改进措施。ISM及案例分析结果表明,ISM方法有效实现了脆弱性因素的层级划分,脆弱性指标直接反映安全管理系统的薄弱点。通过脆弱性分析能够发掘隧道施工安全管理系统的薄弱环节,并为系统的动态持续优化提供决策依据。     

基于城市规划的开封市地质环境风险评价

随着城市化进程的加快,城市地质环境风险评价作为缓解日益严峻的人地矛盾,科学合理地利用地质环境的有效措施,对城市的规划和可持续发展有着十分重要的指导意义。针对开封市的城市规划,将不同类型功能区作为评价对象,建立了地质环境危险性和社会经济易损性评价指标体系,并采用通用的风险评价模型对开封市地质环境风险进行了评价。评价结果显示:开封市高风险区面积占1.21%;次高风险区面积占11.89%;次低、低风险区面积占86.9%。根据评价分区结果,提出了功能优化和风险防控建议。