我国黄土高原地区农业生产的气候脆弱性变化预测

在生态脆弱的黄土高原地区,农业生产受到气候变化的影响波动很大。本文在介绍脆弱性的有关定义和农业生产的气候脆弱性评估方案的基础上,对1997年的脆弱性状况做了初步评估,并利用有关GCM预测结果,估算了有关灾害指标的可能变化,对未来黄土高原地区农业生产的气候脆弱性可能变化进行了预测,其评估方法和预测结果可为有关部门决策提供一定的科学依据。     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

A process-based model on methane emission with its oxidation process from rice fields and corresponding control indices

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for net methane emission from rice fields by coupling methane production model with methane oxidation model. Several dynamical regimes were formed through qualitative analysis of the model, and corresponding dynamic features were interpreted through emission indices. Sensitivity of the model is discussed under the effects of temperature and oxygen concentration in methanogenic and methane oxidation phases, respectively, and interpreted by defining an index; in addition, control parameters are identified and their threshold limits defined. The out-busting emission tendency of methane is considered separately and a forcing strategy was defined to force emission level towards zero in the long term. Lastly, a complete control strategy is proposed for reducing methane emission.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

A Method for Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Siberian Forests: Example of Larch Area

The conceptual scheme of integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change in Siberian forests is elaborated and applied to the extensive area in Siberia covered by Larch forests. Forest stakeholders on the provincial level are identified to be the most relevant for an integrated impact assessment. Organisation of the assessment study as a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches is suggested. Major biophysical vulnerability indexes and regional syndromes are identified as the growing stock and current increment averaged by administrative unit. Models and data suitability and quality for an analysis of biophysical vulnerability in conditions of climate change are studied for Siberian forests and future development trends are identified. An application of the elaborated conceptual scheme, which employs two models of different type and forest inventory data, is presented for the Larch area.     

中国城市地震灾害危险度评价

应用中国历史上发生的M≥4的6759条地震信息和2000年中国672个城市的有关信息,采用中国城市近源地震等效震级和城市地震灾害承灾体易损性指数CV,构建了中国城市地震灾害危险度指数W X,并编制了相应的分布图.研究表明:中国41.82%的城市历史上发生过≥4的近源地震.CV高值城市的分布与我国城市群、城市带的分布并不一致.华北地区、台湾岛地区是我国城市高危险度的高密集区,其次是福建广东沿海、云南省、新疆天山山脉等地区.WX值在3.0以上的37个城市应作为国家减轻地震灾害的重点城市.     

Changes in housing in Guatemala following the 1976 earthquake: With special reference to earthen structures and how they are perceived by disaster victims*

This paper reports on what has happened to earthen structures in 26 Guatemalan communities studied over a 4-year period since the 1976 earthquake. The data were obtained from three waves of personal interviews with 1472 randomly sampled household heads. The results show that adobe, which was the primary housing material before the earthquake was heavily damaged in that event. As a consequence the number of adobe structures and of other earthen structures has been drastically reduced. The people of Guatemala individually and because of agency housing programs have abandoned adobe as a building material and turned to concrete block and wood. Surviving earthen structures have not been improved substantially and remain with largely the same structural features as before the earthquake. The greatest improvement is in the use of comer posts or columns in the walls but most of these are made of untreated crude logs or lumber, subject to rot and termite damage. Little information on aseismic housing seems to have spread either within the earthquake area or in the unaffected areas surrounding it. A program to spread information on how to use adobe in aseismic designs needs to be conducted along with one to assist citizens to aquire the resources necessary to improve the earthquake vulnerability of houses.     

从“对立面”来考虑安全脆弱性

安全和治安防卫有很多的共同特征,分析和研究治安防卫达到最佳效果的方法同样可应用于安全和事故防范方面。虽然通常安全不必考虑蓄意的破坏活动,但可以应用治安的脆弱性评估技术来进行安全分析。笔者旨在从另一个角度来讨论安全分析的方法,换一个切入点来辨识安全的脆弱性:将治安防卫中的脆弱性评估方法应用于安全脆弱性分析中,以期达到转换思维模式的目的。为此,讨论了“对立面”分析的人员组成、考虑范围和对该方法的理解,并运用实例,说明从“对立面”来考虑安全脆弱性是可行的。     

Integration of the Pesticide Impact Rating Index with a Geographic Information System for the Assessment of Pesticide Impact on Water Quality

The pesticide impact rating index (PIRI) has been integrated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to enable regional assessment of pesticide impact on groundwater and surface water resources. The GIS version of PIRI (PIRI-GIS) was used to assess the impact of pre-planting atrazine use in the pine plantations on the Gnangara Mound, Western Australia. The impact on groundwater was found to be spatially variable, mainly dependent on soil type and depth to groundwater, because land use variables were spatially constant. Areas with the greatest impact on groundwater were those where the soil had a low sorption capacity for atrazine. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of the sorption coefficient based on organic carbon (K _oc) for atrazine was found to significantly improve the results from PIRI-GIS. Average values for K _oc (i.e. based on overseas data) were too low for most of the local soil types, resulting in a general overestimation of pesticide impact on groundwater resources, but an underestimation of impact in areas that should be of greatest concern (i.e. where the soil has a low sorption capacity for atrazine).     

灾害易损性研究的回顾与展望

近十余年来,易损性研究成为灾害学术研究和国际社会发展减灾策略的一个主题.本文概述了易损性研究的历史发展过程,评述了易损性的三类概念,总结了易损性的四个性质,阐述了易损性识别和测量的一些基本理念和方法,指出了易损性分析在灾害研究和减灾防灾中的积极意义.