模糊综合评判区域承灾体脆弱性的理论模型

灾害的后果是由致灾环境的危险性和承灾体的脆弱性两个因素共同决定的，承灾体的脆弱性研究对灾害理论以及减灾政策的确定有着极为重要的意义。承灾体脆弱性等级评价是该研究的基础和关键，本文建立了区域承灾体脆弱性模糊综合评判模型。     

Links between food trade,climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden’s food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden’s grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the ‘Gravity’ model, to improve prediction of trade flows.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01623-w.     

基于山江海视角与SRP模型的桂西南-北部湾生态环境脆弱性评价

为揭示桂西南喀斯特-北部湾海岸带生态环境脆弱性,本研究基于山江海视角,采用生态敏感度-生态恢复力-生态压力度(SRP)模型、无纲量化模型、层次分析法,结合生态环境脆弱性指数,对该区域进行了生态环境脆弱性的评价,为该区域的生态环境治理和恢复提供科学的理论基础和技术指导.结果表明:(1)2000～2018年三期生态环境脆弱...     

Climate change and disaster management

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.     

Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration

Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development.     

GIS ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE ROSETTA AREA, EGYPT TO IMPACTS OF SEA RISE

A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (slr). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise.Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings.Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands.     

景区夜游密集人群踩踏事件情景下脆弱性分析

为深入分析城市景区夜游密集人群易发生踩踏事件的脆弱性成因问题,运用人—环境耦合系统全面分析人群脆弱性模型三因子:暴露性、敏感性和适应性.依据现行标准规范与调查问卷筛选脆弱性指标,在博弈思想组合主客观权重的基础上,构建组合赋权-云模型的脆弱性综合评价模型.以大雁塔休闲旅游景区为实例,运用云算法得到各层指标的评价云图,与标...     

美国金县综合应急预案对我国城镇应急预案的启示

为了提高我国城镇应急预案的针对性和可操作性,减少我国城镇突发事件带来的损失,对美国金县综合应急预案进行了研究。通过分析总结金县应急预案的内容和特点,得出我国城镇能够通过完善应急组织架构和明确相应职责,加强风险评估和脆弱性分析,提升应急通信能力,通过立法明确志愿者参与救援权责和深化突发事件风险教育等方面完善应急预案的启示。     

洪灾社会脆弱性指标体系研究

加强社会脆弱性研究对减少洪灾损失、提高社会的灾害应对能力有重要意义.根据灾害位置模型和应急管理周期理论,构建了洪灾社会脆弱性的指标体系,其中洪灾社会脆弱性的理论指标体系包含12个一级指标和110个二级指标;洪灾社会脆弱性宏观指标体系包含9个一级指标和54个二级指标,洪灾社会脆弱性微观指标体系包括12个方面.洪灾社会脆弱性理论、宏观、微观指标体系的构建为进一步从不同层面研究洪灾社会脆弱性奠定了基础.     

区域易损性分析、评估及易损度区划：—以重庆市为例

根据重庆市建国50年来的灾害统计资料,选取灾害密度、灾害频数、经济（GDP）损失模数、生命易损模数等易损性评价指标,在详尽分析了重庆市各区县市易性的基础上,对重庆市各区县市的脆弱性和易损强度进行了综合评估,并且计算出了各区县市的易损度,结合GIS方法对重庆进行了易损度区划。并借此提出域易损性分析、评估的模式、为区域防灾、减灾规划提供科学依据。