Assessing differences in chemical disaster proneness: The community chemical hazard vulnerability inventory*

The burgeoning number of accidents with dangerous chemicals makes it incumbent upon community and regional planners to systematically deal with this problem. The first step invariably involves the assessment of the likelihood and type of incident which may impact a given area so that disasters may be averted or, at least, their effects mitigated. This paper presents one such assessment scheme, the Community Chemical Hazard Vulnerability Inventory (CCHVI). This instrument, aside from considering the type and volume of substances posing a threat to a designated area, considers the physical and human resources available, as well as the general state of readiness of the area (including such things as the interface of emergency-related organizations). The use of such vulnerability assessment instruments allows local emergency planners to identify particular dangers within their communities and permits regional planners to allocate funds for planning according to relative needs.     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

Environmental Vulnerability Indicators for Environmental Planning and Decision-Making: Guidelines and Applications

Environmental decision-making and policy-making at all levels refers necessarily to synthetic, approximate quantification of environmental properties such as vulnerability, conservation status, and ability to recover after perturbation. Knowledge of such properties is essential to informed decision-making, but their definition is controversial and their precise characterization requires investments in research, modeling, and data collection that are only possible in the most developed countries. Environmental agencies and governments worldwide have increasingly requested numerical quantification or semiquantitative ranking of such attributes at the ecosystem, landscape, and country level. We do not have a theory to guide their calculation, in general or specific contexts, particularly with the amount of resources usually available in such cases. As a result, these measures are often calculated with little scientific justification and high subjectivity, and such doubtful approximations are used for critical decision-making. This problem applies particularly to countries with weak economies, such as small island states, where the most precious environmental resources are often concentrated. This paper discusses frameworks for a “least disappointing,” approximate quantification of environmental vulnerability. After a review of recent research and recent attempts to quantify environmental vulnerability, we discuss models and theoretical frameworks for obtaining an approximate, standardizable vulnerability indicator of minimal subjectivity and maximum generality. We also discuss issues of empirical testing and comparability between indicators developed for different environments. To assess the state of the art, we describe an independent ongoing project developed in the South Pacific area and aimed to the comparative evaluation of the vulnerability of arbitrary countries.     

Climate change in Asia: issues and policy options

This article provides a brief review of some of the policy issues facing the Asian region with respect to climate change and its economic consequences. The environmental consequences of Asia's economic rise threaten the future growth of the region. Despite recent economic expansion, Asia will be one of the areas of the world most vulnerable to climate change. While Asia currently contributes moderately to greenhouse gas emissions, the potential for increases in emissions is significant. National and regional policy options, including abatement and adaptation, are examined as strategies for tackling the likely effects of climate change. This study recommends that national initiatives that have no 'regrets' properties be a priority area for further research so that they can be implemented as soon as possible. It is envisaged that in the short to medium term, identifiable no regrets policies can be a useful tool for reducing emissions and vulnerability to climate change in developing regions such as Asia.     

Assessing carrying capacities of coastal areas in France

This paper provides the methodological framework for carrying capacity assessment through a set of indicators, as implemented in a French case study. The approach aims to help the State and local governments of coastal areas facing population growth and important touristic flows to undergo a local development strategy that does not imperil their territorial strategic resources. This work shows how situations of dysfunction or saturation points have interlinked consequences on environmental, social and economic resources, justifying a crosswise assessment.     

Assessment of Flood Vulnerability Based on CMIP5 Climate Projections in South Korea

The objective of this article was to assess flood vulnerability based on the representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios at city and county levels. A quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in climate change scenarios. A series of proxy variables related to climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were chosen to assess flood vulnerability. Proxy variables were standardized using the Z‐score method. Principal component analysis was carried out to calculate the weighting of proxy variables. The study area was the Korean peninsula. The spatial resolution was on a city and county basis and the temporal resolution was 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s (divided into 1976‐2005, 2011‐2040, 2041‐2070, and 2071‐2100). In the spatial comparison, we found that the areas with high‐level flood vulnerability increased over time in the central region, including metropolitan areas, and near the southern coast. In the temporal comparison, we found that the RCP4.5 scenario showed a tendency to increase steadily and the RCP8.5 scenario showed a tendency to decrease in the 2055s slightly and increase again in the 2085s. The study findings may provide useful data for the determination of priority for countermeasure development, though robustness of these findings with additional future projections should be established.     

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs

Effective ecosystem‐based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components’ vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions.     

Survey‐Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small‐Scale Rivers1

Jung, Yong and Minha Choi, 2012. Survey‐Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small‐Scale Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 256‐265. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00608.x Abstract: The vulnerability indicators can be used to develop water resource policy in the context of climate change. The Delphi method, an interactive prediction technique, is an efficient way to apply weighting functionality to vulnerability indicators consisting of three parts: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity on climate change. The Delphi method is an anonymous iterative survey of expert opinion, which is then shared with other participants. A total of three different rounds were carried out. The first round was a problem selection set, and the second and third were the standard Delphi survey. Fifty‐eight experts (66% academic and 34% practitioner) were invited. The rates of reply were 59, 50, and 38% for the first, second, and third Delphi processes, respectively. The degree of consensus of the Delphi survey was validated via variance changes and Kendall’s W test. Exposure and Adaptive Capacity presented increased levels of agreement among respondents in their given priorities. Particularly strong convergence (0.20 to 0.71 in Kendall’s W) of the experts’ opinions for Adaptive Capacity was observed. The results of this study indicate that finalized factors with ultimate weights through the Delphi method can be a strong support for governmental policy making with respect to climate change.     

Predicting Extinction Risk of Brazilian Atlantic Forest Angiosperms

Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species‐level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular‐based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource‐limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non‐phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. Predicción del Riesgo de Extinción de Angiospermas del Bosque Atlántico Brasileño     

叶尔羌河流域平原区地下水污染风险评价

地下水污染风险评价是管理地下水资源和预防地下水污染的有效方法,采用DRSTIW模型对叶尔羌河流域平原区地下水脆弱性进行评价;采用因子分析对污染源解析量化,进行地下水污染负荷评价;采用兼顾开采价值和原位价值来估算地下水功能价值.采用熵权法和层次分析法确定综合权重,基于ArcGIS加权叠加功能生成地下水污染风险图.结果表明,研究区地下水脆弱性整体较高,地下水污染负荷和地下水功能价值整体较低,地下水污染风险整体偏低,高污染风险和较高污染风险区占研究区总面积的20.7%,主要分布在莎车县、泽普县、麦盖提县、图木舒克市和巴楚县西部等区域,含水层渗透能力强、地下水径流条件弱、地下水补给量模数大、植被覆盖率低和水岩相互作用强等自然条件加之频繁的人类活动如农业化肥的施用和工业、生活污水的排放等使得这些区域地下水污染风险较高.地下水污染风险评价为地下水监测网络的优化和地下水污染防治提供有力的数据支撑.