福建台风灾害风险分布的初步估计

建议了一个较简单的台风灾害风险评价模型，对福建台风灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险进行评价，应用Mapinfo7．0软件，编制了福建台风灾害风险分布图。结果表明：致灾因子危险性高值区主要分布在东部沿海，这一地区应该采取预留高风险区，与“台风灾害风险”共存的对策，提高台风预报准确性；承灾体脆弱性高值区集中分布在东部沿海的厦门、泉州、福州、莆田和漳州等地，还零散分布在三明、龙岩等地级市，这些地区应该采取生态安全条件下的土地利用结构调整、提高防御台风灾害能力和人口素质等对策，以降低承灾体脆弱性；风险高值区位于闽南沿海的漳州、长泰、龙海和厦门市，闽中的泉州东南沿海、莆田市和福州东南沿海，这些地区应该成为福建省防御台风灾害的重点区域。     

云南临沧盆地地下水环境脆弱性评价

地下水脆弱性研究是合理开发利用和保护地下水资源的有效技术措施。本文根据临沧盆地水文地质条件,应用美国环保署(USEPA)的地下水脆弱性DRASTIC评价方法,考虑地下水位埋深、含水层净补给量、含水层介质、土壤包气带、地形地貌、包气带介质和水力传导系数等7个评价因子,结合GIS技术,对该区的地下水脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明,临沧盆地地下水脆弱性高区为主城区和主要农田分布区,要严格控制工业废水、生活污水的排放量和农药、化肥的施用量,防止地下水受到污染,确保地下水资源的可持续开发利用。     

基于AHP法的泰安市生态系统脆弱性模糊评价

采用基于AHP法的模糊评价模型,并通过最大特征根一致性检验、肯达尔一致性检验,全面评价了泰安市2001-2005年生态脆弱度变化情况,结果表明:二级指标中气候因素脆弱度、自然环境因素脆弱度、经济因素脆弱度逐年降低,社会因素脆弱度在较不脆弱的基础上波动,泰安市总生态脆弱度呈现逐年改良趋势;利用线性回归分析,确定自然环境因素是影响泰安市总脆弱度的主导因素,可根据其变化情况为预测泰安市生态脆弱度变化及指导生态建设提供科学依据。     

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large‐sized taxa were under decline, whereas small‐sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data‐deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species‐by‐species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species. Predección y Definición de Prioridades de Conservación para Mamíferos de Bolivia con Base en Correlaciones Biológicas del Riesgo de Declinación     

Women and children last: An essay on sex discrimination in disasters

In general, little attention has been given to differential survival between the sexes in disasters. Consideration of physiological differences between males and females would suggest that, all things being equal, morbidity and mortality after disaster, particularly where food shortage is involved, should indicate an excess male mortality. Such statistics as exist in disasters, as in chronic underdevelopment, show that it is females and especially girl children who are at highest risk. The basis of this lies in sex discrimination which is implicit in most social systems.     

The contribution of forums to rural sustainable development: a preliminary evaluation

This paper assesses the contribution that forums have made in progressing sustainable land use policies and decisions within rural Wales. The examples of Cardigan Bay Forum and Wales Rural Forum are used to show how sustainability has been addressed within their overall agendas. The contemporary debate about sustainable development has provoked a new organizational response with forums visible in many activities and initiatives. The traditional adversarial approach between groups has been replaced by a more sophisticated and complex assemblage of bodies that together create the forum ideal. Consensus, partnership and mutual understanding form the language of this new discourse. However, their presence raises certain key questions as to their role, purpose, representativeness and value in rural resource management debates. These questions have not been considered in the literature, and with the increasing proliferation of forums generally, there is a need to assess whether they are bringing about real and effective change. The two examples reveal clear evidence of forums as agents of change. However, there is considerable tension within both forums, within a climate of financial and membership vulnerability, between the need for involving all legitimate interests and the need to achieve meaningful outcomes for individual members. Such tension goes to the heart of who the two forums actually represent and their resulting actions. The way that these tensions have been reconciled lie at the heart of the forum phenomenon.1998 Academic Press     

Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO₂ and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO₂-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO₂ on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO₂-driven warmer climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach

In the recent years, global environmental change research has seen increased attention to the concept of vulnerability. There have been a growing number of vulnerability assessments, but relatively little discussion on appropriate and common methods. Here we propose a method to guide vulnerability assessments of coupled human–environment systems toward a common objective: informing the decision-making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. We suggest five criteria vulnerability assessments must at least possess to achieve this objective. They should have a knowledge base from various disciplines and stakeholder participation, be place based, consider multiple interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity, and be prospective as well as historical. On the basis of these criteria, we present a general methodological guideline of eight steps. To examine whether these eight steps, if attentively coordinated, do in fact achieve the criteria, and in turn satisfy the objective of the assessment, we discuss two case studies. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as part of their well-established disciplinary practices. However, they should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps constitute a novel methodological framework. We hypothesize that if researchers employ this framework, then the products of the research will (1) achieve the objective of preparing stakeholders for the effects of global change on a site-specific basis, and (2) further the “public good” of additional insights through cross-study comparisons of research projects designed according to common principles.     

A multi-hazard history of Antigua*

Antigua experiences earthquakes, droughts and hurricanes. To isolate for study each of these as they occur, would be to over simplify the inter-relationships between the aftereffects of one and the occurrence and the effects of the next. Moreover, there will be conditions arising from factors outside the natural disaster spectrum which bear upon, and are themselves affected by, all of these phenomena. This interplay of events and conditions is readily illustrated in the case of island countries, which have a natural and clearly defined containment. Such interrelationships suggest a complex human-ecological system which must be recognized if environmental balance and compatability are to be maintained - particularly in respect of hazards. This documentary analysis of the colonial era in Antigua, has to conclude for the time being with questions concerning the environmental effectiveness of imported systems of administration which, with no knowledge of comparable natural hazards, assumed sectoral separation.     

A critical analysis of earthquakes and urban planning in Turkey

The land use plans and policies of developed countries that live with the threat of earthquakes are gaining importance in reducing or eliminating the long‐term threat to people and property. In developing countries, however, these plans and policies seem to increase the level of vulnerability. This paper examines the effects of the earthquakes that have occurred in Turkey since 1992, with a particular focus on urbanisation and planning policies. It is based on extensive surveys carried out on location immediately after the earthquakes in Erzincan and Kocaeli‐Gölcük in 1992 and 1999, respectively. The analysis takes into account several factors, including the height of buildings, geological conditions and the construction period. The authors conclude that land use planning can serve as a very useful instrument for mitigating the extent of disaster damage if it is part of an appropriate planning system. In the case of Turkey, the planning system needs to be reorganised for this purpose.