大气环境红线划定技术研究

大气环境质量安全底线是环境质量安全底线的重要内容,其划定工作能够更好地为环境管理提供服务.本研究旨在建立大气环境质量安全底线划定技术方法,为国家和地方大气环境质量安全底线划分和管控措施设计提供导引,为建立国家环境质量安全底线提供技术支撑.     

Reliability of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through statistical methods

Statistical methods are widely used in environmental studies to evaluate natural hazards. Within groundwater vulnerability in particular, statistical methods are used to support decisions about environmental planning and management. The production of vulnerability maps obtained by statistical methods can greatly help decision making. One of the key points in all of these studies is the validation of the model outputs, which is performed through the application of various techniques to analyze the quality and reliability of the final results and to evaluate the model having the best performance. In this study, a groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate contamination was performed for the shallow aquifer located in the Province of Milan (Italy). The Weights of Evidence modeling technique was used to generate six model outputs, each one with a different number of input predictive factors. Considering that a vulnerability map is meaningful and useful only if it represents the study area through a limited number of classes with different degrees of vulnerability, the spatial agreement of different reclassified maps has been evaluated through the kappa statistics and a series of validation procedures has been proposed and applied to evaluate the reliability of the reclassified maps. Results show that performance is not directly related to the number of input predictor factors and that is possible to identify, among apparently similar maps, those best representing groundwater vulnerability in the study area. Thus, vulnerability maps generated using statistical modeling techniques have to be carefully handled before they are disseminated. Indeed, the results may appear to be excellent and final maps may perform quite well when, in fact, the depicted spatial distribution of vulnerability is greatly different from the actual one. For this reason, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the obtained results using multiple statistical techniques that are capable of providing quantitative insight into the analysis of the results. This evaluation should be done at least to reduce the questionability of the results and so to limit the number of potential choices.     

基于DEA方法的上海农业水灾脆弱性评估

采取演绎思路,在历史灾情的基础上,根据脆弱性概念,运用包络分析的CCR投入-产出模型,对上海各郊区(县)的农业水灾脆弱性分异规律进行了分析。结果表明:松江与南汇脆弱性达1的年数最多,宝山、金山与青浦处于中等,嘉定、浦东、奉贤与崇明脆弱性达1的年数最少;另外1,991年为水灾形势最为严峻的年份,其次是1985年,1987-1990年间,各区(县)的脆弱性值都偏小,没有脆弱性达1的区域。这与实际情况基本符合,该方法可以为市政部门提供必要信息和决策参考,以提高灾害科学管理的水平。     

山区沿河公路路基水毁灾害易损性评价

结合沿河路基水毁的研究资料和野外现场调查,根据山区沿河公路路基水毁易损性评价具有多因素和模糊性的特点,选取路基自身强度及稳定性、防护措施、洪水特性和河床因素等4个因素共10个子因素构成评价因素集,在建立易损性评价指标体系的基础上,采用改进的层次分析法确定了评价因素及其子因素的权重;运用模糊数学方法建立了易损性评价的二级模糊综合评价的数学模型,提高了沿河路基水毁易损性评价的客观性和科学性,并结合实例进行了应用。根据易损性评价结果,可采取相应的沿河路基水毁防治对策。     

广州市土地利用总体规划与生态脆弱性的耦合分析

以广州市为例，利用2005年的TM影像．并结合DEM、水土流失现状图、地质灾害图、有机质含量分布图及社会经济等数据。分析全市生态环境脆弱性的空间格局特征，并将生态脆弱性区分区圈与土地利用规划图进行空间叠加分析。结果表明：①研究区生态环境优越。生态良好区占85．96％；②人类活动对生态脆弱性格局具有重要的影响。各生态脆弱性类型区的分布有一定的规律性．平原地区好于山区。城区好于郊区；③新一轮土地利用规划结构调整和布局已经充分考虑生态环境因素影响。符合广州市生态环境保护和经济发展的需要。规划实施有利用于提升环境生态服务功能。     

中亚跨境流域生态脆弱性评价及其时空特征分析——以阿姆河流域为例

生态脆弱性（EVI）的定量评估和长期分析,对于了解区域生态环境动态变化与指导生态环境保护与修复极为重要。但以往研究很少对跨境流域这一特殊单元进行生态脆弱性评价。以阿姆河流域为例,选择反映研究区植被、水文、气候、地形、土壤以及人类活动等方面的11个指标,通过共线性诊断分析,构建了阿姆河流域生态脆弱性评价体系,利用主观权重与客观权重相结合的方法确定指标权重,对1990-2015年研究区EVI进行了定量评价及时空特征分析。结果表明：（1）研究区生态环境呈恶化趋势,大部分区域处于重度脆弱状态,研究时段内重度脆弱性比例的平均值为46.40%;极度脆弱性占比在过去25年内呈增加趋势,从1990年的2.58%增加至2015年的16.97%,增幅为14.39%。（2）生态脆弱性在不同土地覆被类型之间差异巨大,其中草地的EVI值变化最大,裸地的生态环境最为脆弱,林地的生态脆弱性最小;研究区生态脆弱程度整体表现为裸地>灌丛>草地>耕地>城市用地>林地的规律。（3）EVI与地形因子的关系表明生态环境最为脆弱的区域主要位于低海拔地势平坦与高海拔坡度大的地区,而低脆弱性主要分布在海拔2500~3500 m或坡度15~25°的区间上。     

NGO initiatives in risk reduction: an overview

NGOs appear to be well placed to play a significant role in natural disaster mitigation and preparedness (DMP), working, as they do, with poorer and marginalised groups in society. However, there is little information on the scale or nature of NGO DMP activities. This paper reports the findings of a study seeking to address that gap. It confirms that NGOs are involved in a diverse range of DMP activities but that a number of them are not labelled as such. Moreover, evidence of the demonstrable quality and benefits of DMP involvement is poor. The paper concludes that a number of problems need to be overcome before DMP can be satisfactorily mainstreamed into NGO development and post-disaster rehabilitation programmes. However, there are some early indications of momentum for change.     

近20年重庆市主城区碳储量对土地利用/覆被变化的响应及脆弱性分析

土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）是影响区域生态系统碳储量变化的重要驱动因素,探明碳储量对LUCC的响应及脆弱性,对区域实现“双碳”战略目标具有重要意义。以重庆市主城九区为例,运用InVEST模型研究了近20年主城区碳储量对土地利用转移的响应,采用潜在影响指数（PI）评估了该区域生态系统碳储量服务的脆弱性。结果表明：（1）2000—2020年间,主城区耕地面积减少743.29 km²,建设用地面积急剧增加773.48 km²。前10年土地转移面积6.05%,后10年转移13.98%,耕地转为建设用地是主要的土地转移类型。（2）近20年主城区碳储量累计减少5.78 Tg,其中建设用地侵占耕地是碳储量急速下降的主导因素。碳储量分布呈现“中部低—四周高”的空间格局。（3）近20年主城区均表现为碳源,土地利用程度指数提高14.73,PI指数为-2.50~ -2.59 Tg,均表现负面潜在影响,且2000—2015年间脆弱性不断恶化,2015—2020年间脆弱性有所缓解。研究结果可为区域生态可持续发展和未来土地利用管理政策制定提供参考,并为西部其他同类型山地城市提供借鉴。     

基于多因素耦合的航空运输系统脆弱性分析*

为分析航空运输系统脆弱性，提升航空运输系统安全水平。基于脆弱性理论，针对航空运输系统运行特点，提出航空运输系统脆弱性概念，并归纳分析航空运输系统安全影响因素；采用触发器原理建立基于航空运输系统脆弱性影响因素耦合的事故形成机理模型，选取1973—2019年的120起全球重大航空事故为数据基础，构建可量化航空运输系统脆弱性影响因素耦合关系的N-K模型。结果表明:影响航空运输系统耦合关系的关键因素为管理因素，有针对性地加强航空运输系统安全脆弱性关键耦合因素的管控，能更好地提高航空运输系统安全水平。     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas