Mapping social–ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making

An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social–ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social–ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social–ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social–ecological vulnerability based on information on human–nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small‐scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social–ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human–nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social–ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory management decisions.     

大学城公共安全评价体系初探

随着大学城建设的蓬勃开展,大学城公共安全已成为一项关乎国计民生又亟待深入研究的重要课题。阐述了公共安全评价的研究现状,同时,参照当前国际上成熟的公共安全评价框架,基于脆弱性(风险)与(减灾)能力两个维度,初步建立了大学城公共安全评价指标的内容体系。并以广州大学城为例,对公共安全评价流程和结果进行了初步的分析论证。结合具体的评价结果,针对大学城脆弱性风险防范和减灾能力建设提出了一些有效的建议,以供大学城公共安全规划建设和发展决策参考。     

城市埋地天然气管道系统脆弱性评估指标研究

脆弱性作为安全领域研究的新兴名词,用来表示系统承受外界扰动的敏感性和易损性以及面对灾害后果的承受力和应对能力,是联系灾害与风险研究的重要桥梁,是系统安全状况的重要综合指标。文章在引用以及重新界定＂脆弱性＂概念的基础上,将其引入城市天然气管道系统的安全研究,结合城市天然气管道系统的灾害事故特点,分析影响城市埋地天然气管道系统脆弱性的主要因素,根据因素间的相互关系,建立包括致灾因子、灾害后果和应对措施等3个方面2、2项指标的多因素多级评价指标体系。运用层次分析法（AHP）的原理和计算过程确定各评价指标的权重,根据指标权重的大小比较,分析各指标对城市天然气管道系统安全脆弱性的影响程度,从而确定安全治理的主要方向。     

Marine gold and atoll livelihoods: The rise and fall of the bêche‐de‐mer trade on Ontong Java,Solomon Islands

The rise and fall of the bêche‐de‐mer trade in Solomon Islands is an example of how small, remote island communities are influenced by drivers of change on both the national and international scales. This susceptibility leads to local economic collapses and changed livelihoods. This article focuses on small‐island livelihoods, socio‐economic responses to fluctuating markets and the instability caused by internal and external forces of change. Quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews and participant observation have been used to explore the development trajectories of Ontong Java, a Polynesian outlier in Solomon Islands, in the context of the bêche‐de‐mer trade over the past forty years. The main findings can be captured in four distinct periods that demonstrate the transformation of this atoll community from subsistence‐oriented strategies to specialization in marine resource extraction to economic collapse and return to subsistence. It is concluded that this atoll population has shown a remarkable ability to adjust and cope with processes of globalization.     

基于汶川地震的地震人员伤亡预测模型研究

地震发生以后及时掌握人员伤亡情况对灾后救援具有重要作用,因此,建立地震人员伤亡预测模型是极为重要的。以2008年汶川地震人员伤亡数据及房屋破坏面积数据为基础,运用线性回归分析方法模拟出地震人员伤亡预测模型。该函数模型是以建筑物的易损性为自变量,分别以死亡人数、受伤人数为因变量构建的。同时对回归模型进行误差分析,并参考前人模型可知房屋内人口密度和地震发生时间2个因素对模型有很大影响,进而对回归系数进行调整。最后利用文中模型和其他几种预测模型分别对汶川地震和玉树地震进行验证,并与地震实际伤亡结果进行比较,证明研究的模型的准确性和适用性。     

重要基础设施脆弱性计算理论

为了给重要基础设施的保护提供决策理论支持,基于重要基础设施保护中出现的安全问题,在综述脆弱性概念的发展基础上,提出脆弱性的一种可操作性概念,并将重要基础设施保护中的脆弱性分为2类:一类为保护方面的脆弱性,一类为响应方面的脆弱性。在此基础上研究了综合脆弱性的数学表达式,提出了重要基础设施综合脆弱性的评价程序,该评价程序可以应用于重要基础设施的防灾减灾研究中。     

农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的影响因素——基于野外土地利用测量与入户调查

恢复力作为刻画人类自身响应和发挥主体能力、积极抵御和适应外界变化的指标，在灾害学领域的引入进一步丰富和明晰了灾害承灾体的性质，与脆弱性具有同等的重要性。但当前对灾害恢复力的研究不足，如何界定灾害恢复力的特征、诊断和定量评价恢复力尚存在较大的探讨空间。在湖南鼎城高排河流域野外土地利用现状测量与入户调查所得数据和气象数据的基础上，应用数学统计方法重点分析了土地利用、农户经济、文化素质状况等因素与农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的关系。结果表明，地貌类型与海拔高度从较大尺度上决定了农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的大小，水源地位置及其蓄水能力、水田与旱地的比例关系、劳动力文化水平、农户实际年收入和非农收入比例是影响农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的主要因素。     

PRE-ESTIMATE FOR THE CHANGE OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN LOESS PLATEAU,CHINA

Inrecentyears ,inthebackgroundofstrongglobalenvironmentalchange ,naturalvariationhastheaggravatingtendencyyearbyyearinChina .Additionally ,Chinahasahigheconomicgrowthrateandagreatpopulation ;humanactivitiesinhighriskareas (likeLoessPlateau)areexacerbated ;andbearingcapabilityagainstthedisasterisgenerallyvulnerable .Becauseofthosefactorsabove ,theeconomiclossescausedbythedisastershavebeenincreasing .Therefore ,ithasbecomethescientificbasisofestablishingaregionalsustainabledevelopmenttoprobein…     

Fragile environment in need of resilient carers? A case of regional natural resources management in Perth,Western Australia

The Perth region is one of the 56 designated Natural Resources Management (NRM) regions in Australia. A community-led body – Perth Region NRM (PRNRM) – is in charge of overseeing NRM initiatives in the region. PRNRM heavily relies on Environmental Care Organisations (ECOs) that are involved in a wide variety of activities ranging from managing nature reserves to restoring ecosystems on a voluntary basis. While ECOs have become an integral component of PRNRM, they are often vulnerable because of the uncertain availability of financial and human resources. The way these organisations can overcome resource scarcities and become resilient is therefore significant for the effective delivery of regional NRM arrangements. However, what makes some ECOs in the Perth region more resilient than others is not well understood. This paper responds to this gap and explores the state of ECOs in the Perth region. The paper begins by reviewing the notion of resilience using a social capital lens. Drawing on a survey of ECOs and interviews, the method used for data collection and data analysis is presented next. Finally, the paper makes a case for fostering social capital as a way of enhancing the resilience of ECOs in the Perth region and beyond.     

Making space for social inclusion in conceptualising climate change vulnerability

Impacts from climate change pose a raft of challenges for societies, governments and policy-makers internationally. The anticipated changes are well documented, including rising sea levels, increased floods and other extreme weather conditions. Much research and policy emphasis has focused on technical and economic aspects. Less debated are questions about different communities' vulnerabilities, inequitable distributional impacts, social justice issues and how vulnerability links to social inclusion/exclusion. This paper explores a case study mapping social exclusion and vulnerability in Brisbane, Queensland, which found that while communities can be vulnerable through physical aspects of an area when social dimensions are added to the equation it amplifies or exacerbates the scale of vulnerability. The findings also suggest that in developing research agendas and policy debates around climate change, there could be benefits from interlinking the currently separate areas of work on social vulnerability to extreme weather events, to forms and processes of social inclusion/exclusion.