基于改进DEA交叉效率模型的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价

为了评价洪水灾害区域脆弱性,提出了应用改进DEA交叉效率模型和熵权法相结合的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价方法。首先,在洪灾形成理论的基础上,构建洪灾区域脆弱性指标体系和评价标准;其次,应用改进DEA交叉效率模型计算不同区域的成灾效率,利用熵权法计算权重集结全局成灾效率。根据成灾效率的实际意义分析不同区域脆弱性的相对大小。最后,选取我国各省份洪灾作为实证分析的研究对象。研究结果表明:该方法能够准确评价区域洪灾脆弱性程度,评价结果与实际情况一致,具有较好的适用性。     

岷江上游生态脆弱性评价

岷江上游流域是我国典型的生态脆弱区之一,由于地质变化频繁、高差显著、气候干旱,加上人为活动影响,生态脆弱性的表现十分明显。通过对其生态环境脆弱性因素及成因机制的分析,构建了由土地生产力、地表起伏度、干燥度指数、土壤侵蚀强度、草场退化荒漠化率、物种消失率等14个指标组成的岷江上游生态脆弱性的评价指标体系;根据本地区生态环境现状、全国和四川省情况及奋斗目标,建立了Ⅰ到Ⅲ级的评价标准体系;利用模糊数学聚类方法对评价指标进行分析计算,得出了岷江上游生态环境为第Ⅲ级,即生态环境非常脆弱的结论。评价结果符合岷江上游地区的生态环境状况。     

近场地震作用下库区深水钢筋混凝土高墩地震易损性分析∗

为研究近场地震作用下库区深水钢筋混凝土高墩的概率损伤特性,以90 m高的矩形空心薄壁钢筋混凝土深水高墩为研究对象,综合考虑桥墩设计参数和近场地震动的随机性,基于OpenSees软件建立深水高墩有限元模型,开展不同水深的7种工况(水深:0、15、30、45、60、75、90 m)下,顺桥向和横桥向近场地震激励的增量动力非线性分析。以截面临界曲率值为损伤指标,研究深水高墩的易损性。结果表明:各工况下,轻微损伤、中等损伤和严重损伤阶段的损伤概率均随地震波峰值加速度的增加而增大,并且当峰值加速度达到1.0g时损伤概率达到最大,而完全损伤阶段的损伤概率则在峰值加速度为0.5g时出现峰值点;近场地震顺桥向激励时,墩身中上部和墩底区域均较容易损伤,而横桥向激励时仅墩底区域较容易损伤;当水深超过45 m后,高墩最大损伤概率变化不大且截面曲率概率需求基本一致,45 m水深为深水高墩显著水深。因此,应重点分析水深达到高墩高度一半时深水高墩的损伤情况。     

生态环境的脆弱性对垃圾不适当处置的响应

垃圾的不适当处置,对生态环境的负面影响是多方面的。在上海、北京和石家庄等地研究表明,垃圾的随意处置,已经造成了许多环境污染问题:垃圾的污染成分包括“三氮”、COD、BOD、重金属离子、有机污染物等,这些污染物在包气带砂性土的侧向迁移距离约15 m,而在地下水中则可达到120 m/a,在地表水中影响距离可达200 多m,在粘性土中的垂向迁移一般在3 m以浅;Cd、Hg、As、F、Pb等有毒离子在垃圾处置场附近高梁粒的综合污染指数可达192-238,超过国家食品卫生标准高达650倍,在西瓜和甜瓜中,这些离子超标少的几倍,高的达100多或1300多倍;垃圾中COD、Cl-、NH4+、NO3-、NO2-等对地表水的单项污染指数高的达100多倍,并在静止的地表水呈现指数函数衰减;对地下水的单项污染指数高的可达340多倍,高出地下水三类标准100多倍,综合污染指数少的60,高的达170。     

Ageism: A Factor in the Nutritional Vulnerability of Older People?

Unlike other population groups, the rights, needs and contributions of older people in developing countries are not well understood. With the absence of information about how to assess the nutritional status and vulnerability of older people, HelpAge International joined forces with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the early 1990s to launch a research programme. Seven years later some of the basic questions can now be answered but there remains much more to do.
Although older people are increasingly acknowledged as a vulnerable group in emergencies, NGO responses often fail to meet their needs. The question is whether there are real difficulties in service adaptation or whether ageism is one of the greatest barriers to the provision of appropriate services for older people.     

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species’ biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change‐threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change‐threatened species identified with the trait‐based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change‐threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait‐based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change‐vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population‐level threats).     

系统响应气候变化脆弱性定量评价国内研究综述

定量评价气候变化脆弱性是人类采取适应性措施应对全球气候变化,以减少其不利影响的关键和基础。在对气候变化脆弱性有关概念进行讨论,及对国际、国内系统响应气候变化脆弱性评价研究回顾的基础上,对中国近十几来有关气候变化脆弱性定量评价研究的成果从三个方面进行了较为系统的总结：气候情景的模拟预测、系统变化过程的模拟、脆弱性指标的选取及脆弱性层次的划分。最后,从评价对象、技术手段、指标体系、时间尺度等方面探讨了该领域研究的不足及发展方向。     

湖南省洪涝灾害脆弱性评估和减灾对策研究

自然灾害灾情受到灾害系统脆弱性和致灾因子风险性的共同作用，而脆弱性是自然环境变化和人为影响因素在一定的时空条件下耦合的产物。同一致灾强度下，灾情随脆弱性的增强而加重，降低灾害脆弱性可减轻灾害造成的经济损失，因此灾害脆弱性的研究对防灾抗灾具有重要的意义。洪涝灾害是湖南省最严重的自然灾害之一。根据长时间序列的气象资料和经济统计数据，选取7项指标，应用数学模型来综合评估湖南省洪涝灾害的脆弱性．揭示洪涝灾害脆弱性的基本特征。结果表明湖南省洪涝灾害脆弱性总体水平较高，并且具有明显的空间分异规律。通过相关分析，表明这种分异规律与实际洪涝灾害情况具有一致性，说明本研究对该区防洪抗涝决策有一定的借鉴和指导作用。最后针对影响洪涝灾害脆弱性的因素和成灾机制，提出一系列可持续的生态减灾工程体系的建设思路。     

河北省水文地质环境变化及其脆弱性分析

河北省是我国乃至世界水文地质环境恶化最严重的地区之一。本文通过分析生态环境和水文地质环境变化的过程和致灾现状 ,指出了其脆弱性累进的原因 ,并提出了遏制环境恶化 ,减轻灾害影响与损失 ,调整人类行为的对策与建议     

海原大地震极震区内烈度衰减异常探讨

宁夏海原大地震极震区所存在的南北两侧地震烈度衰减异常及伴随的震害程度差异现象,严格受极震区内黄土微地形地貌、土层厚度、显微结构、工程地质特性和发震构造断裂的控制。上述诸因素与地震波耦合后,达到进一步激化和放大地震能量的效应,导致研究区内黄土强度瞬间丧失,并因之具更高的地震易损性而加重震害。