碗窑碾压混凝土坝变形成因分析及监控指标的拟定

鉴于碗窑碾压混凝土重力坝个别变形测点测值异常现象,依据大坝变形观测资料,通过变形规律时空分析和统计模型的建立,以及影响因子的分解,合理地解释了其变形成因,从而得出碗窑水库大坝变形性态总体正常的结论。为确保大坝安全运行,通过建立有限元力学模型和混合模型,拟定了典型坝段坝顶水平位移的一级监控指标,进而更有效地监控大坝的安全性态。另外,就个别测点坝段时效有呈逐年缓慢上升的趋势,建议管理单位加强观测,并及时分析,确保工程安全运行。     

矿井采掘工作面通风效果的综合评价

运用模糊综合评价法对矿井采掘工作面进行了通风效果的评价,先确定了影响工作面通风效果的指标,并逐一构造了其隶属函数,然后采用层次分析法定出评价指标的相对权重,最后对计算模糊评判的算法进行了分析,以此来确定采掘工作面通风效果的评价等级。以东滩煤矿部分采掘工作面的环境状况为例进行了评价,据实际考察评价结果反映,通过该评价方法得到的结果与现场完全一致。     

Critical considerations for future action during the second commitment period: A small islands' perspective

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated.     

基于因素重构分析法和主成分分析法的企业安全文化评价模型

针对当前安全文化评价领域存在的评价方法相对简单、主观性较强等问题,基于企业安全文化的人本主体,设计以企业决策层、管理层、执行层为主体的企业安全文化指标体系;充分利用因素重构分析法和主成分分析法在数据处理上的各种优势,建立适应指标体系特征并考虑数据约束条件的企业安全文化评价模型;通过实例分析加以验证。该模型为解决企业安全文化评价中指标体系庞大复杂、样本空间小、缺少可以直接利用的历史数据等难题给出了一条具有可操作性的路径。     

危险货物道路运输系统的风险评价

分析了危险货物道路运输系统的风险影响因素,在此基础上建立了风险评价指标体系,并采用专家咨询法确定了各指标的权重,提出了使用模糊数学综合评价法对危险货物道路运输系统进行风险评价,并通过实例对评价模型进行了验证.结果表明,利用模糊综合评价的方法对危险货物道路运输系统的风险进行研究,可以为危险货物道路运输企业和交通安全监管部门对危险货物道路运输采取有效的安全控制措施,提供有益的参考.     

Developing a Standardized Water Quality Index for Evaluating Surface Water Quality1

Abstract: There is a significant need for a science‐based approach to interpret water‐monitoring data and to facilitate the rapid transfer of information to water resource managers and the general public. The water quality Index (WQI) is defined as a single numeric score that describes the surface water quality condition at a particular time and location. The objective of this paper is to describe the WQI concept and the approach for developing an ecoregion‐specific standardized WQI that meets the needs described above. The premise of the proposed WQI is based on categorizing scientifically documented aquatic life responses to changes in instream water chemistry. The method uses an aggregated procedure that matches the entire range of standardized probable biological responses to standardized narrative water quality evaluation categories and standardized rank score categories. The calculation of WQI and decision‐making process are performed within an Excel spreadsheet software program. The article includes examples of the proposed WQI applications that could enhance effective water resource management and facilitate timely communication of water quality conditions to water resource managers and the general public.     

Computer simulation of the cumulative effects of brushland fire-management policies

A mathematical model simulates the cumulative volume of debris produced from brushland watersheds. Application of this model to a 176-km² (0.678 = mi²) watershed along the southern flank of the Central San Gabriel Mountains permits assessment of expected debris production associated with alternative fire-management policies. The political implications of simulated debris production are evaluated through a conceptual model that links interest groups to particular successional stages in brushland watersheds by means of the resources claimed by each group. It is concluded that in theory, a rotation burn policy would provide benefits to more interest groups concerned about southern California's brushland watersheds than does the current fire exclusion policy.This research was supported by the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and by the Office of Water Research and Technology, USDI, under the Allotment program of Public Law 88–379, as amended, and by the University of California. Water Resources Center, as a part of Office of Water Research and Technology Project No. A-058-CAL and Water Resources Center Project UCAL-WRC-499. Support was also provided by the California Agricultural Experiment Station, Berkeley, California.     

Technetium: A toxic waste product of the nuclear fuel cycle: Effects on soybean growth and development

Technetium-99 (⁹⁹Tc) is formed in significant amounts (6.2% fission yield) during fission in both nuclear reactors and nuclear bombs. The effects of technetium on soybeans (Glycine max) were studied in relation to (a) cytochemical events in the apical meristems of germinating seedlings; (b) growth responses to 0, 0.04, 0.2, 1.0, 5.0, and 20.0 ppm Tc; (c) growth responses to varying levels of Tc after a prior 5-day germination on Tc-free media, and (d) response to Tc in the presence of added manganese.By 20 days, reductions in growth were evident at all levels of Tc except 0.04 ppm (Experiment 2). Root growth was most severely affected, and seedling abnormality at 20 ppm was fivefold greater than that of the controls. The effect of 20 ppm Tc was evident at 10 days when the accumulated absorption dose was approximately 25 rads. The first evidence of damage at this dose was a delay in the initiation of the first trifoliate leaf. The shoot meristem size was 1.2-fold smaller than that of the control; however, there was no cytological evidence of radiation-induced damage. Observation of mitotic figures did not reveal any chromosome aberrations, micronuclei, or chromosome bridges. The lowest level of Tc showing toxicity was 0.2 ppm which resulted in a 31% reduction in growth at 20 days. The accumulated dose was 0.5 rad (0.025 rad/day) and thus it seems unlikely that the rapid inhibition of growth and development is due to radiological toxicity. It is quite probable that the growth effects are due to chemical toxicity possibly due to nutrient competition and/or substitution in uptake or metabolism. However, extremely low doses of radiation have been shown to delay the onset of DNA synthesis (possibly by membrane effects) inTradescantia and until the actual mechanism of Tc inhibition is determined a radiation effect cannot be totally ruled out.This research was partially supported by ERDA Contract EY-76-S-02-4139     

ESTIMATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WITH API ALGORITHMS AND MICROWAVE EMISSION1

Large area soil moisture estimations are required to describe input to cloud prediction models, rainfall distribution models, and global crop yield models. Satellite mounted microwave sensor systems that as yet can only detect moisture at the surface have been suggested as a means of acquiring large area estimates. Relations previously discovered between microwave emission at the 1.55 cm wavelength and surface moisture as represented by an antecedent precipitation index were used to provide a pseudo infiltration estimation. Infiltration estimates based on surface wetness on a daily basis were then used to calculate the soil moisture in the surface 0–23 cm of the soil by use of a modified antecedent precipitation index. Reasonably good results were obtained (R²= 0.7162) when predicted soil moisture for the surface 23 cm was compared to measured moisture. Where the technique was modified to use only an estimate of surface moisture each three days an R² value of 0.7116 resulted for the same data set. Correlations between predicted and actual soil moisture fall off rapidly for repeat observations more than three days apart. The algorithms developed in this study may be used over relatively flat agricultural lands to provide improved estimates of soil moisture to a depth greater than the depth of penetration for the sensor.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Thomas Drabek, Disaster-induced Employee Evacuation
Hugh Brammer, Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh
Boris Porfiriev, Disaster Planning and Emergency Management in Russia
Patrick Bracken and Celia Petty, eds, Rethinking the Trauma of War
R. Cohen and F. M. Deng, eds, The Forsaken People: Case Studies of the Internally Displaced
Tom Trier and Lars Funch Hansen, eds, Conflict and Forced Displacement in the Caucasus: Perspectives, Challenges and Responses