Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

对水泥企业生产环境负荷之浅析

基于生命周期理论,采用CNI环境影响评价方法对我国水泥生产的环境负荷进行了定量分析。结果表明：水泥生产的环境影响主要体现在温室效应、不可再生能源消耗和不可再生资源消耗,其环境负荷分别占对应环境影响类型世界总负荷的2.76％,2.34％和1.39％,2006年我国水泥生产的环境负荷约占世界总负荷的1.28％,其中,立窑生产工艺、湿法回转窑生产工艺和新型干法生产工艺的环境负荷分别为0.84％,0.12％和0.32％。通过行业结构调整,用新型干法生产工艺取代其他落后的生产工艺,可使我国水泥生产的环境负荷降至世界总负荷的1％左右。     

浅谈新疆风电场水土保持措施配置——以新疆华电小草湖风电场二场一期工程为例

风能作为一种清洁无污染的可再生能源,已经被广泛运用到电力事业的发展中来。近年来,新疆的风力发电发展迅速,风电场建设过程中不可避免地会对土壤及植被造成一定的破坏,人为地加剧了水土流失。概述了风电项目水土流失特点,以新疆华电小草湖风电场工程为例,结合项目区具体特点,分区设置防治措施。通过工程措施、植物措施与临时措施的有机结合,有效地防止水土流失。     

河北省地表水环境污染特征及分析

河北省1998年-2005年的水环境质量监测数据分析表明：河北省地表水污染恶化趋势基本得到遏制,但部分地区水污染矛盾仍很突出;水体总体污染减轻,但氨氮污染有加重趋势;主要湖（库）水水质稳定,但普遍呈不同程度的富营养化。在此基础上,分析了地表水污染的原因,并提出了河北省改善地表水环境污染的对策与措施。     

张家口市中心城区饮用水安全的探讨

饮用水与人民群众的生活与健康休戚相关,因此保护饮用水水源地尤其重要。张家口市中心城区的饮用水水源地为地下水水源地,市区共有南北五个集中式供水水源地。近年来,由于农业污染、生活污染、个别企业超标排污以及上游来水不达标等原因,水源地水质下降。本文主要从5个水源地的水质、水量现状出发,探讨了影响水源地安全的因素,并提出相应的水源地保护措施：切实落实《饮用水水源地保护规划》、加强监管和立法以及提高公民环境意识。     

Social Acceptability of Water Resource Management: A Conceptual Approach and Empirical Findings from Portland,Oregon1

Abstract: Surface water resources in urban areas serve multiple functions ranging from recreation to wildlife habitat. As a result, diverse values influence people’s views about resource protection, potentially leading to conflicting interests. In metropolitan Portland, Oregon, natural resource planning has recently focused on habitat restoration as well as stormwater and pollution mitigation, especially through the protection of riparian areas. Due to opposition over proposed regulations in the study region, this research examines public attitudes about an array of resource management efforts. The primary research question is: what is the extent of positive–negative attitudes about water resource protection, and what theoretical dimensions underlie diverse judgments? After empirical survey results are presented, I outline a conceptual approach for future assessments of environmental attitudes while highlighting important value‐based dimensions of judgments. Although flexible, the framework allows broad comparisons to advance knowledge about the social acceptability of varied water resource management approaches across diverse places and contexts.     

人工神经网络方法在拟建小区域环境质量评价中的应用

人工神经网络的评价方法用于小区域环境质量评价中,根据本地区特点因地制宜地选择环境质量参数,代入模型中进行环境质量评价及预测,对用于环境质量评价的BP人工神经网络模型进行了改进,即对网络模型的训练样本进行了扩充,从而提高了模型的抗干扰能力和准确性.将改进了的BP人工神经网络模型应用于四川省资阳市沱江二桥拟建项目小区域的大气、地表水环境质量评价中, 对该市小区域大气、地表水环境质量状况进行评价,评价结果表明,BP人工神经网络模型用于环境质量评价是可行的,且评价结论客观,评价模型普遍适用.     

江河水源地突发性水污染事故风险评价

近年来,我国江河饮用水水源地突发性水质污染事故频发,成为我国面临的最严重的环境问题之一.江河水源地突发性水质污染事件的风险评价是确保饮用水源地水质安全的重要手段,对突发性水质污染事故,采取适当的应急处理措施.     

信息可视化在化工企业水环境安全影响评价中的研究及应用

运用data system.exe技术,对水环境评价系统功能模块进行设计;提出水环境影响评价信息可视化软件的设计方法;建立水环境污染因子数据信息可视化软件,并应用该软件对石油化工企业的水环境进行了初步的风险评价。结果表明:该软件能在识别污染因子数据信息的同时生成与之相匹配的直观的模拟环境图像,有助于管理者进行及时分析与决策;通过输入水环境污染因子监测值后,系统可以自动判定环境的污染的程度,并把对应环境质量的级别、环境的安全程度以及污染对人体与生物的影响程度在图中显示出来,能够有效地提高环境影响评价的可靠度;评价示意图中的评价因子可以根据需要进行增加或更换,有助于该系统的推广应用,建立的环境污染因子数据信息可视化模型具有很强的适用性。