西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

Fine-resolution mapping of wildfire fuel types for Canada: Fuzzy logic modeling for an Alberta pilot area

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used daily across Canada for evaluating forest fire danger. Fuel-type information is one of the inputs required by the models used in the CFFDRS. In this project, three fuel-type maps with a 25 m resolution were produced for a pilot study area located in Alberta using land cover only; land cover and biomass; and, land cover, biomass and leaf area index data derived from satellite imagery. The relationships between inputs and fuel types were determined mainly by the opinions of forest fire scientists and incorporated into a computer program using fuzzy set methodology. Not all the CFFDRS fuel types could be distinguished using these inputs; three of the coniferous types had to be grouped into one common fuel type. Overall accuracy was between 74 and 83% based on ground-truth comparisons. The most accurate map resulted from land cover and biomass data. Detailed accuracy assessment indicated that the overall accuracy increased up to 86% if ambiguous fuel type identification was considered. No combination of inputs was able to define a fuel type with absolute certainty, which is a reflection of differing expert opinions and the small number of inputs used to produce the maps.     

Safe speed limits for a safe system: The relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate for different crash types

Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.     

Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

Radium geochemistry in Na-Cl type groundwater in Niigata Prefecture, Japan

Radium isotopes in 23 Na-Cl type groundwater sampled mainly from deep wells in Niigata Prefecture, which is the site of the largest oil- and gas-fields in Japan, were measured along with U isotopes, chemical components and hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios to elucidate the distribution and behavior of Ra in a brackish environment underground. Also analyzed were U and Th isotopes in 38 rock samples collected from outcrops at 17 locations. Ra-226 concentrations (8.86-1637 mBq kg⁻¹) of groundwater samples roughly correlated with total dissolved solid (TDS) concentrations and other alkaline earth contents. Their ²²⁸Ra/²²⁶Ra activity ratios (0.32-5.2) were similar to or higher than the ²³²Th/²³⁸U activity ratios (0.6-1.7) in the rocks. The most likely transport mechanism of Ra isotopes into groundwater was due to their α-recoil from the solid phase, probably from the water-rock interface where Th isotopes had accumulated, and adsorption/desorption reaction based on the increase in ²²⁶Ra contents with TDS.     

农村分散型的生活污水处理工程实例

介绍了农村小城镇分散型的生活污水处理经验,即采用隔油沉淀、水解酸化、接触氧化法的处理工艺;污水处理设施采用埋地式土壤覆盖型;最终废水出水的各项水质指标均达到《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》（GB18918—2002）中的一级B类标准。     

城乡交错带土地利用方式对土壤理化性质的影响

以长沙市南郊山地丘陵区为研究对象,选择7种不同土地利用方式（次生林地、经济林地、杉木人工林、采伐迹地、撂荒地、苗圃地、坡耕地）研究了城乡交错带不同土地利用方式对土壤理化性质的影响。结果表明：7种土地利用方式下,土壤颗粒组成主要集中在1～0.05 mm和＜0.001 mm两个粒级范围内,土壤质地以重壤土和轻粘土为主。随着人为干扰程度的减弱,土壤砂粒（1.0～0.05 mm）、土壤粉粒（0.05～0.01 mm）百分率逐渐下降,＜0.01 mm的土壤物理性粘粒百分率增加。自然、半自然状态利用方式的林地（次生林地、经济林地、杉木人工林地）土壤总孔隙度、含水量普遍较高,土壤密度低于坡耕地、苗圃地、撂荒地、采伐迹地,而土壤pH值、有机质含量及氮、磷、钾含量普遍高于坡耕地、苗圃地、撂荒地、采伐迹地     

A level change in mutagenicity of Japanese tap water over the past 12 yr

A relative comparison study of mutagenicity in Japanese tap water was conducted for 1993 and 2005 surveys. It intended to assess the effects of advanced water treatment installations to water works, improvement of raw water quality and improvement of residual HOCl concentration controlling. Sampling points (taps) were the same in both surveys. The results of 245 samples obtained by the Ames Salmonella mutagenicity test (Ames test) were analyzed. The Ames tests were conducted by using Salmonella typhimurium TA98 and TA100 strains with and without exogenous activation (S9). With the exception of TA100-S9, the other conditions needed no discussion as a factor in the mutagenicity level change. The average mutagenicity in 1993 and 2005 under the conditions of TA100-S9 were 2600 and 1100 net revertant L⁻¹, respectively. This indicated that the mutagenicity level of Japanese tap water decreased during the 12-yr period. Particularly a remarkable decrease in mutagenicity was observed in the water works where the advanced water treatments were installed during the 12-yr period. The advanced water treatments were effective in decreasing the mutagenicity of tap water. Mutagenicity also decreased in the water works with conventional water treatments; the improvement of residual HOCl concentration controlling was also considered to be effective in decreasing the mutagenicity of tap water.     

TiO2载体对Mn-Ce/TiO2催化剂脱硝活性的影响

以TiO₂为载体,选取过渡金属元素Mn为活性组分,稀土金属元素Ce为活性助剂,采用分步共混法制备了Mn-Ce/TiO₂催化剂（活性组分负载量16%）,系统研究了TiO₂载体的晶型和晶粒尺寸对催化剂脱硝活性的影响。实验结果表明：分别以锐钛矿型和金红石型TiO₂为载体制备的催化剂,其低温脱硝活性相差不大,活性组分均以无定型态高度分散于载体中,以金红石型TiO₂为载体制备的催化剂中部分TiO₂转变为锐钛矿型;以不同晶粒尺寸TiO₂载体制备的催化剂的低温脱硝活性相差较大,比表面积较大、晶粒尺寸较小的TiO₂载体制备的催化剂,其脱硝活性低于晶粒尺寸较大的TiO₂载体制备的催化剂。     

江西灾害性强雷电天气的雷达回波特征

使用常规地面报表A0资料、多普勒天气雷达资料,以及雷电数据和卫星云图等资料,进行了雷电和雷暴日的分布特征统计分析,重点对灾害性强雷电天气的雷达回波特征进行个例分析,以了解雷电和雷暴天气的活动规律和强雷电的雷达回波特征,提高预警预报的能力.结果表明:(1)雷电和雷暴天气具有明显的季节变化与日变化特征,每年2-5月集中在8-20时,6-9月集中在11-20时;(2)强雷电天气在雷达回波上表现为南北走向的回波带结构,当回波强度≥50dBZ、回波出现不断合并现象、强回波水平尺度较大、具有"指状"或"弓状"回波结构,以及出现陡直"零值线"和VIL超过50 kg/m2时,最易发生强雷电天气;(3)有时局部强单体凭着自身的发展,当强度≥50dBZ和VIL超过50 kg/m2时,也有可能出现局地强雷电天气.