城市天然气管道风险特征与肯特法的改进

根据城市高压天然气管道特点,将适合于城市天然气管道风险分析的肯特评分法加以改进,包括调整评分项目和事故因素权重,使其成为适于城市天然气管道的风险分析法。将改进后的肯特评分法应用于常州21km高压天然气管道的风险评价,得出8个相对高风险管段,其分析结果可作为安全管理人员合理分配维护资源的理论依据。工程应用实例证明:改进后的肯特法具有较强的可行性,是城市高压天然气管道风险评估的有效工具。     

建筑火灾风险评价体系的建立与应用探讨

探讨基于安全系统工程思想的建筑火灾风险评价指标体系的建立方法,并在该基础上,通过专家打分和层次分析法,计算得出各指标因子的权重值。根据有关标准和规范,对各评价指标因子进行等级划分,并设计出建筑火灾风险综合分值评分表,为厘定火灾保险费率提供依据。笔者的研究成果为完善建筑火灾风险评价方法、制定财产保险火灾风险评价标准等提供了科学依据。     

城市防震减灾能力评估研究

首先论述了目前国内外关于城市地震灾害风险评估的研究,分析了这些研究取得的成果和存在的不足。然后,提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念,采用人员伤亡,经济损失和震后恢复时间作为衡量城市防震减灾能力强弱的3个最基本的要素。围绕这3个基本要素,列举出影响城市防震减灾能力的6大因素,在此基础上,提出了城市防震减灾能力评价指标体系的具体内容。     

公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估

为保障伤员生命与健康,提升火灾伤员救治率,该文研究公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估方法.以火灾伤员转运护理应急资源需求分析为基础,从应急人员、应急设备、应急环境信息与应急管理四个方面出发,共选取15个评估指标,构建公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估指标体系,根据各指标采集相关数据并对数据实施量纲标准化处理.构建基...     

Effects of Dam‐Induced Landscape Fragmentation on Amazonian Ant–Plant Mutualistic Networks

Mutualistic networks are critical to biological diversity maintenance; however, their structures and functionality may be threatened by a swiftly changing world. In the Amazon, the increasing number of dams poses a large threat to biological diversity because they greatly alter and fragment the surrounding landscape. Tight coevolutionary interactions typical of tropical forests, such as the ant–myrmecophyte mutualism, where the myrmecophyte plants provide domatia nesting space to their symbiotic ants, may be jeopardized by the landscape changes caused by dams. We analyzed 31 ant–myrmecophyte mutualistic networks in undisturbed and disturbed sites surrounding Balbina, the largest Central Amazonian dam. We tested how ant–myrmecophyte networks differ among dam‐induced islands, lake edges, and undisturbed forests in terms of species richness, composition, structure, and robustness (number of species remaining in the network after partner extinctions). We also tested how landscape configuration in terms of area, isolation, shape, and neighborhood alters the structure of the ant–myrmecophyte networks on islands. Ant–myrmecophytic networks were highly compartmentalized in undisturbed forests, and the compartments had few strongly connected mutualistic partners. In contrast, networks at lake edges and on islands were not compartmentalized and were negatively affected by island area and isolation in terms of species richness, density, and composition. Habitat loss and fragmentation led to coextinction cascades that contributed to the elimination of entire ant–plant compartments. Furthermore, many myrmecophytic plants in disturbed sites lost their mutualistic ant partners or were colonized by opportunistic, nonspecialized ants. Robustness of ant–myrmecophyte networks on islands was lower than robustness near lake edges and in undisturbed forest and was particularly susceptible to the extinction of plants. Beyond the immediate habitat loss caused by the building of large dams in Amazonia, persistent edge effects and habitat fragmentation associated with dams had large negative effects on animal–plant mutualistic networks. Efectos de la Fragmentación del Paisaje Inducida por Presas sobre Redes Mutualistas Hormiga‐Planta Amazónicas     

ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: The consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking at six Colorado ski areas is calculated. The focus of the procedures in this investigation is on the consumptive loss that occurs to man-made snow particles during the period they reside on or in the snowpack until spring snowmelt (termed the watershed loss). Calculated watershed losses under a variety of precipitation and temperature conditions at six ski areas varied from 7 to 33 percent. These calculations were made using the calibrated Subalpine Water Balance Simulation Model (Leaf and Brink, 1973a, 1973b). The watershed loss of 7 to 33 percent indicates the range of likely watershed losses that can be expected at Colorado ski areas. A previous paper by the authors (Eisel et al., 1988) provided estimates of the mean consumptive loss during the snowmaking process (termed initial loss) for conditions existing at Colorado ski areas to be 6 percent of water applied. Therefore, based on the mean initial loss, the total consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking under conditions found at Colorado ski areas could be expected to range from 13 to 37 percent. These results demonstrate the range of total consumptive losses that could be expected in various years and for various watershed conditions. These total percentage losses cannot be extrapolated directly to other specific sites because the total consumptive loss is dependent on temperature during actual snowmaking, temperature and precipitation throughout the winter at the specific ski area, and watershed conditions at the ski area. Consumptive losses to man-made snow for a specific ski area should be estimated using the handbook procedures developed especially for this purpose (Colorado Ski Country USA, 1986b).     

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE) has existed for a long time and for most of this time it has been cloaked in mystery. Several theories have been put forward to explain this very energetic event but none have been proven. This paper describes a series of tests that have recently been conducted to study this phenomenon.

The study involved ASME code automotive propane tanks with nominal capacities of 400 litres. The tanks were exposed to a combination of pool and/or torch fires. These fire conditions led to thermal ruptures, and in some cases these ruptures resulted in BLEVEs. The variables in the tests were the pressure-relief valve setting, the tank wall thickness, and the fire condition.

In total, 30 tests have been conducted, of which 22 resulted in thermal ruptures. Of those tanks that ruptured, 11 resulted in what we call BLEVEs. In this paper, we have defined a BLEVE as the explosive release of expanding vapour and boiling liquid following a catastrophic tank failure. Non-BLEVEs involved tanks that ruptured but which only resulted in a prolonged jet release.

The objective of this study was to investigate why certain tank ruptures lead to a BLEVE rather than a more benign jet-type release. Data are presented to show how wall temperature, wall thickness, liquid temperature and fill level contribute to the BLEVE process.     

Modeling wetland loss in coastal Louisiana: Geology,geography, and human modifications

Habitat change in coastal Louisiana from 1955/6 to 1978 was analyzed to determine the influence of geological and man-made changes on landscape patterns within 7.5 min quadrangle maps. Three quantitative analyses were used: principal components anlaysis, multiple regression analysis, and cluster analysis.Regional differences in land loss rates reflect variations in geology and the deltaic growth/decay cycles, man-induced chages in hydrology (principally canal dredging and spoil banking), and land-use changes (principally urbanization and agricultural expansion). The coastal zone is not homogeneous with respect to these variables and the interaction between causal factors leading to wetland loss is therefore locally variable and complex.The relationship between wetland loss, hydrologic changes, and geology can be described with statistically meaningful results, even though these data are insufficient to precisely quantify the relationship. However, these data support the hypothesis that the indirect impacts of man-induced changes (hydrologic and land use) may be as influential as the direct impacts resulting in converting wetlands to open water (canals) or modified (impounded) habitat.Three regions within the Louisiana coastal zone can be defined, based on the potential causal factors used in the analyses. The moderate (mean = 22%) wetland loss rates in region 1 are a result of relatively high canal density and developed area in marshes which overlie sediments of moderate age and depth; local geology acts, in this case, to lessen indirect impacts. On the other hand, wetland loss rates in region 2 are high (mean = 36%), despite fewer man-induced impacts; the potential for increased wetland loss due to both direct and indirect effects of man's activity in these areas is high. Conversely, wetland loss (mean = 20%) in region 3 is apparently least influenced by man's activity in the coastal zone because of sedimentary geology (old, thin sediments), even though these areas have already experienced significant direct habitat alteration and wetland loss.     

A PRELIMINARY QUANTIFICATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ASPEN TO CONIFER SUCCESSION ON WATER YIELD- II. MODELING RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: Heat pulse velocity techniques were developed for effective monitoring of water movement in aspen (Populus tremuloides), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and Englemann spruce (Picea engelmannif). Water loss was monitored in replicated trees of each species for one year. These data were used to modify the plant activity index (a reflection of the ability of plants to transpire water at various times during a year) and the crop coefficient (a reflection of differences in consumptive use rates of water by different vegetation types when all other factors are held constant) for each species within the model ASPCON, a deterministic, lumped-parameter model describing the hydrology of aspen to conifer succession. Results of the modeling in dicate 18.6 cm net loss of moisture available for streamflow when spruce replaced aspen, and a loss of 7.2 cm when fir forests replaced aspen. The aspen to conifer successional trend appears, therefore, to be significantly reducing water yields in the western United States.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

An economic analysis of nonpoint source pollution management was conducted for the Nansemond River and Chuckatuck Creek watersheds in Southeast Virginia. The potential effects of alternative public policies on farm income, land use, and pollution loadings were investigated. Regulatory programs could have quite different impacts depending on which pollutant is targeted. Cost-share rates greater than 50 percent would have little additional effect on pollution from crop enterprises, but would reduce pollution from livestock