一种灾害等级的区间数评估模型

由于灾害损失本身的复杂性及灾情统计方面存在的问题,利用区间数替代单一实数值作为灾害等级评估指标的输入更加符合实际。基于上述思路,提出了一种基于区间数的灾害等级评估新模型。首先,给出区间数距离的新定义,该定义能够充分利用区间数所携带的信息;然后,利用线性加权评价函数计算评估对象与评价标准之间的综合相对距离测度,评估对象隶属于综合距离测度最小值所对应的灾害等级。该模型建模过程思路清晰,物理意义明确,计算过程简捷,评估结论符合实际。最后,用实例说明模型的应用方法。     

Effects of Dam‐Induced Landscape Fragmentation on Amazonian Ant–Plant Mutualistic Networks

Mutualistic networks are critical to biological diversity maintenance; however, their structures and functionality may be threatened by a swiftly changing world. In the Amazon, the increasing number of dams poses a large threat to biological diversity because they greatly alter and fragment the surrounding landscape. Tight coevolutionary interactions typical of tropical forests, such as the ant–myrmecophyte mutualism, where the myrmecophyte plants provide domatia nesting space to their symbiotic ants, may be jeopardized by the landscape changes caused by dams. We analyzed 31 ant–myrmecophyte mutualistic networks in undisturbed and disturbed sites surrounding Balbina, the largest Central Amazonian dam. We tested how ant–myrmecophyte networks differ among dam‐induced islands, lake edges, and undisturbed forests in terms of species richness, composition, structure, and robustness (number of species remaining in the network after partner extinctions). We also tested how landscape configuration in terms of area, isolation, shape, and neighborhood alters the structure of the ant–myrmecophyte networks on islands. Ant–myrmecophytic networks were highly compartmentalized in undisturbed forests, and the compartments had few strongly connected mutualistic partners. In contrast, networks at lake edges and on islands were not compartmentalized and were negatively affected by island area and isolation in terms of species richness, density, and composition. Habitat loss and fragmentation led to coextinction cascades that contributed to the elimination of entire ant–plant compartments. Furthermore, many myrmecophytic plants in disturbed sites lost their mutualistic ant partners or were colonized by opportunistic, nonspecialized ants. Robustness of ant–myrmecophyte networks on islands was lower than robustness near lake edges and in undisturbed forest and was particularly susceptible to the extinction of plants. Beyond the immediate habitat loss caused by the building of large dams in Amazonia, persistent edge effects and habitat fragmentation associated with dams had large negative effects on animal–plant mutualistic networks. Efectos de la Fragmentación del Paisaje Inducida por Presas sobre Redes Mutualistas Hormiga‐Planta Amazónicas     

ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: The consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking at six Colorado ski areas is calculated. The focus of the procedures in this investigation is on the consumptive loss that occurs to man-made snow particles during the period they reside on or in the snowpack until spring snowmelt (termed the watershed loss). Calculated watershed losses under a variety of precipitation and temperature conditions at six ski areas varied from 7 to 33 percent. These calculations were made using the calibrated Subalpine Water Balance Simulation Model (Leaf and Brink, 1973a, 1973b). The watershed loss of 7 to 33 percent indicates the range of likely watershed losses that can be expected at Colorado ski areas. A previous paper by the authors (Eisel et al., 1988) provided estimates of the mean consumptive loss during the snowmaking process (termed initial loss) for conditions existing at Colorado ski areas to be 6 percent of water applied. Therefore, based on the mean initial loss, the total consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking under conditions found at Colorado ski areas could be expected to range from 13 to 37 percent. These results demonstrate the range of total consumptive losses that could be expected in various years and for various watershed conditions. These total percentage losses cannot be extrapolated directly to other specific sites because the total consumptive loss is dependent on temperature during actual snowmaking, temperature and precipitation throughout the winter at the specific ski area, and watershed conditions at the ski area. Consumptive losses to man-made snow for a specific ski area should be estimated using the handbook procedures developed especially for this purpose (Colorado Ski Country USA, 1986b).     

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE) has existed for a long time and for most of this time it has been cloaked in mystery. Several theories have been put forward to explain this very energetic event but none have been proven. This paper describes a series of tests that have recently been conducted to study this phenomenon.

The study involved ASME code automotive propane tanks with nominal capacities of 400 litres. The tanks were exposed to a combination of pool and/or torch fires. These fire conditions led to thermal ruptures, and in some cases these ruptures resulted in BLEVEs. The variables in the tests were the pressure-relief valve setting, the tank wall thickness, and the fire condition.

In total, 30 tests have been conducted, of which 22 resulted in thermal ruptures. Of those tanks that ruptured, 11 resulted in what we call BLEVEs. In this paper, we have defined a BLEVE as the explosive release of expanding vapour and boiling liquid following a catastrophic tank failure. Non-BLEVEs involved tanks that ruptured but which only resulted in a prolonged jet release.

The objective of this study was to investigate why certain tank ruptures lead to a BLEVE rather than a more benign jet-type release. Data are presented to show how wall temperature, wall thickness, liquid temperature and fill level contribute to the BLEVE process.     

Modeling wetland loss in coastal Louisiana: Geology,geography, and human modifications

Habitat change in coastal Louisiana from 1955/6 to 1978 was analyzed to determine the influence of geological and man-made changes on landscape patterns within 7.5 min quadrangle maps. Three quantitative analyses were used: principal components anlaysis, multiple regression analysis, and cluster analysis.Regional differences in land loss rates reflect variations in geology and the deltaic growth/decay cycles, man-induced chages in hydrology (principally canal dredging and spoil banking), and land-use changes (principally urbanization and agricultural expansion). The coastal zone is not homogeneous with respect to these variables and the interaction between causal factors leading to wetland loss is therefore locally variable and complex.The relationship between wetland loss, hydrologic changes, and geology can be described with statistically meaningful results, even though these data are insufficient to precisely quantify the relationship. However, these data support the hypothesis that the indirect impacts of man-induced changes (hydrologic and land use) may be as influential as the direct impacts resulting in converting wetlands to open water (canals) or modified (impounded) habitat.Three regions within the Louisiana coastal zone can be defined, based on the potential causal factors used in the analyses. The moderate (mean = 22%) wetland loss rates in region 1 are a result of relatively high canal density and developed area in marshes which overlie sediments of moderate age and depth; local geology acts, in this case, to lessen indirect impacts. On the other hand, wetland loss rates in region 2 are high (mean = 36%), despite fewer man-induced impacts; the potential for increased wetland loss due to both direct and indirect effects of man's activity in these areas is high. Conversely, wetland loss (mean = 20%) in region 3 is apparently least influenced by man's activity in the coastal zone because of sedimentary geology (old, thin sediments), even though these areas have already experienced significant direct habitat alteration and wetland loss.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

A PRELIMINARY QUANTIFICATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ASPEN TO CONIFER SUCCESSION ON WATER YIELD- II. MODELING RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: Heat pulse velocity techniques were developed for effective monitoring of water movement in aspen (Populus tremuloides), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and Englemann spruce (Picea engelmannif). Water loss was monitored in replicated trees of each species for one year. These data were used to modify the plant activity index (a reflection of the ability of plants to transpire water at various times during a year) and the crop coefficient (a reflection of differences in consumptive use rates of water by different vegetation types when all other factors are held constant) for each species within the model ASPCON, a deterministic, lumped-parameter model describing the hydrology of aspen to conifer succession. Results of the modeling in dicate 18.6 cm net loss of moisture available for streamflow when spruce replaced aspen, and a loss of 7.2 cm when fir forests replaced aspen. The aspen to conifer successional trend appears, therefore, to be significantly reducing water yields in the western United States.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

An economic analysis of nonpoint source pollution management was conducted for the Nansemond River and Chuckatuck Creek watersheds in Southeast Virginia. The potential effects of alternative public policies on farm income, land use, and pollution loadings were investigated. Regulatory programs could have quite different impacts depending on which pollutant is targeted. Cost-share rates greater than 50 percent would have little additional effect on pollution from crop enterprises, but would reduce pollution from livestock     

Preparation and implementation of seven ecological compensation plans for Dutch highways

First-generation compensation plans (CPs) for Dutch highway projects have been evaluated with respect to implementation of the compensation principle (1993), which aims to counterbalance the adverse ecological impacts of large-scale development projects. Decision-making on the seven projects took place between 1993 and 1995. Specifically, we considered: (a) the processes employed to prepare and implement the compensation plans; (b) the methods used to identify, plan, and execute the compensation measures; and (c) the results yielded by these methods. We conclude that the CPs were prepared fairly uniformly, particularly in terms of the processes and methodologies used to derive compensation measures. Five of the seven CPs had become operational by 2001 and initial experience is now being gained on land acquisition and transfer of compensation sites to nature conservation trusts. Further progress of CPs is likely to be seriously hampered by growing demand for land for development in general and associated increases in real estate prices. Several problems are addressed and recommendations made with respect to: (a) developing a legal basis for the compensation principle; (b) the relationship with re-allotment projects; (c) estimation of compensation costs; (d) an annual bias of CP budgets to account for rising costs; (e) contingency measures; and (f) criteria for CP (ex-post) evaluation.     

灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用

自然灾害对国民经济和人民生活能造成巨大的损失 ,因此 ,研究灾害对国民经济的影响具有重要的意义。灾害系统是一个十分复杂的系统 ,直接建立灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型比较困难。本文基于投入产出方法 ,讨论了直接和间接经济损失在投入 -产出表中的表达方式 ,建立了灾害损失评估的定量分析模型 ,并以农业为例 ,分析了自然灾害造成的农业总产值损失对整个经济系统的影响。