镍钴矿区放射性的水平调查与研究及危害防治

以镍钴矿区放射性水平调查结果为依据,对镍钴矿区氡子体的赋存规律、析出方式、放射性水平及致病机理进行了探讨,并提出了防治建议。     

湖南怀化地区96.7城市特大洪涝灾害成因分析

湖南省怀化地区地形以山地为主,该地区１９９６年７月发生了城市特大洪涝灾害,本文概述了该地区９６．７城市洪涝灾情,并以区域灾害系统论为指导,从孕灾环境、致害因子、承灾能力和人类活动的不利影响等方面,对这次灾害的成因进行了分析,认为其主要成因是：（１）易洪涝的山丘区环境;（２）９６．７降雨强度大、覆盖面广、持续时间长的异常雨情和高洪峰水位、流量的异常水情;（３）城市防洪标准低、水利水电工程防洪效益差和抗洪害意识不强等原因造成的城市防洪能力低;（４）砍伐森林、人为侵占河道和大型水库超常规蓄水等人类活动造成的不利影响。     

中国东部季风区末次冰期以来古气候模拟

通过对我国东部季风区现代青土样品孢粉组合与气候因子间的回归分析,分别建立了孢粉组合与一月,七月气温和年降水量的转换函数,进而建立了本区末次冰期以来的孢粉－气候数据库,模拟末次冰期盛冰期,消冰期,全新世前北方期－北方期,大西洋期,亚北方期等五个古气候期的冬季和夏季温度场,降水场。     

VERIFICATION OF THE RHEA-OROGRAPHIC-PRECIPITATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Observed April 1 snowpack accumulations within and near the Gunnison River basin in southwestern Colorado are compared with simulations from the Rhea-orographic-precipitation model to determine if the model simulates reliable magnitudes and temporal and spatial variability in winter precipitation for the basin. Twenty simulations of the Rhea model were performed using‘optimal’parameter sets determined for 10-kilometer (km) grids (10-km by 10-km grid cells) through stochastic calibration. Comparisons of Rhea-model simulations of winter precipitation with April 1 snowpack accumulations at 32 snowcourse stations were performed for the years 1972–1990. For most stations and most years the Rhea model reliably simulates the temporal and spatial variability in April 1 snowpack accumulations. However, in general, the Rhea-model underestimates April 1 snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin area, and the underestimation is greatest for locations that receive the largest amount of snow. A significant portion of the error in Rhea-model simulations is due to the calibration of the Rhea model using gauge-catch precipitation measurements which can be as much as 50 percent below actual snowfall accumulations. Additional error in the Rhea-model simulations is a result of the comparison of gridded precipitation values to observed values measured at points.     

大庆龙凤湿地自然保护区的价值分析

大庆龙凤湿地自然保护区处于松嫩平原腹地,为典型的芦苇沼泽湿地.龙凤湿地是未被破坏的、完整的原始湿地生态系统,它保持了生物的自然性、多样性、典型性与稀有性,具有极高的保护价值.龙凤湿地位于城区内,生态脆弱性明显,应加强保护.     

江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析

江苏省近年来随着社会经济的发展,耕地面积急剧减少,土地利用变化和经济增长二者关系更为明显和完整,具有极好的典型性和代表性。论文利用近20年来耕地面积、经济增长与城市化水平之间的长序列统计资料,对江苏省1981～2004年间的耕地面积与经济增长及城市化水平的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。研究表明:耕地面积、GDP与城市化水平均是不平稳的时间序列,直接对其进行回归分析是不严谨的;江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间不具有长期的协整性;江苏省耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平之间只存在单向的因果关系。通过研究,认为目前的土地利用方式极不合理。因此,降低耕地减少速度,提高土地利用效率是非常紧迫的战略问题。     

Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

Landscape planning and ecology construction of wetland comprehensive protected area system in the Sanjiang Plain

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上海北郊大气挥发性有机物(VOCs)变化特征及来源解析

2019年1月1日到10月31日期间在上海北部郊区,采用在线气相色谱仪对58种VOCs定量检测,分析了大气VOCs组成、季节变化特征和日变化规律,并利用最大增量反应活性(MIR)估算了VOCs的臭氧生成潜势(OFP),应用因子分析法对VOCs来源进行了解析。结果表明,上海大气总VOCs体积浓度为25.79×10-9,其中烷烃占比63.2%,烯烃占比11.6%,芳香烃占比19.8%,炔烃占比5.4%。总VOCs体积浓度呈现夏季高,秋季低的季节变化特征。大气臭氧生成潜势为76.99×10-9,烷烃贡献率为22.1%,烯烃为37.5%,芳香烃为38.7%,炔烃为1.7%。VOCs特征物比值(V(TVOC)/V(NO_x)和T/B比值)法表明观测点为VOCs控制区,受周边工业区源和交通源影响。大气VOCs主要来源为机动车排放、工厂生产、燃料燃烧、工业溶剂挥发及天然源。     

渭河宝鸡市区段阴离子表面活性剂污染研究

本文采用改进的亚甲蓝分光光度法，对渭河宝鸡市区段阴离子表面活性剂进行监测分析。测定结果表明：渭河在进入宝鸡市至植物园断面时阴离子表面活性剂含量较低，日平均值为0．049mg／L，达到地面水环境质量I类标准(≤0．2mg／L)(GB3838-88．地面水环境质量标准)；在流经市区新世纪桥、渭河桥断面时，由于分别有清姜河和金陵河两个支流的汇入，污染越来越严重．在这两个断面阴离子表面活性剂含量日平均值分别为0．34mg／L和0．54mg／L；在即将流出宝鸡市的斗鸡断面阴离子表面活性剂含量日平均值为0．424mg／L，已远远超过地面水环境质量V类标准(≤0．3mg／L)(GB3838-88，地面水环境质量标准)。从监测结果看：双休日阴离子表面活性剂含量普遍高于工作日；清姜河、金陵河污染严重，这两条支流的汇入对渭河水质影响巨大，要治理好渭河，须先治理好清姜河和金陵河这两条支流。