The Lost Creek Fire: managing social relations under disaster conditions

This paper examines some of the social processes associated with disaster conditions. Utilising an asset‐based perspective of community capacity, it focuses on four types of normative systems to interpret the ability of communities to manage disasters through market‐, bureaucratic‐, associative‐, and communal‐based norms. Drawing on experience of a wildfire in the Crowsnest Pass region of southwest Alberta, Canada, in 2003, the tensions and compatibilities among these normative systems are evaluated through interviews with 30 community leaders. The results confirm the contributions of all types of social capital to resiliency, the necessity for rapid use of place‐based knowledge, and the importance of communication among all types and levels of agents. In addition, they point to the value of identifying and managing potential conflicts among the normative systems as a means to maximising their contributions. The integration of local networks and groups into the more general disaster response minimised the impacts on health and property.     

Examining Modeling Approaches for the Rainfall‐Runoff Process in Wildfire‐Affected Watersheds: Using San Dimas Experimental Forest

Wildfire can significantly change watershed hydrological processes resulting in increased risks for flooding, erosion, and debris flow. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive capability of hydrological models in estimating post‐fire runoff using data from the San Dimas Experimental Forest (SDEF), San Dimas, California. Four methods were chosen representing different types of post‐fire runoff prediction methods, including a Rule of Thumb, Modified Rational Method (MODRAT), HEC‐HMS Curve Number, and KINematic Runoff and EROSion Model 2 (KINEROS2). Results showed that simple, empirical peak flow models performed acceptably if calibrated correctly. However, these models do not reflect hydrological mechanisms and may not be applicable for predictions outside the area where they were calibrated. For pre‐fire conditions, the Curve Number approach implemented in HEC‐HMS provided more accurate results than KINEROS2, whereas for post‐fire conditions, the opposite was observed. Such a trend may imply fundamental changes from pre‐ to post‐fire hydrology. Analysis suggests that the runoff generation mechanism in the watershed may have temporarily changed due to fire effects from saturation‐excess runoff or subsurface storm dominated complex mechanisms to an infiltration‐excess dominated mechanism. Infiltration modeling using the Hydrus‐1D model supports this inference. Results of this study indicate that physically‐based approaches may better reflect this trend and have the potential to provide consistent and satisfactory prediction.     

Changes in Sediment Sources following Wildfire in Mountainous Terrain: A Paired–Catchment Approach,British Columbia,Canada

This paper describes a study examining the potential of mineral magnetic, geochemical and organic properties to determine if a 2003 wildfire in a catchment in British Columbia, Canada, caused a change in the sources of the suspended sediment transported in the channel relative to a nearby unburnt (reference) catchment. The results show that some of the properties offer the potential to determine sediment sources in the unburnt catchment. However, the 2003 wildfire modified the concentrations of some properties and this can either compromise or enhance their ability as tracers in the burnt catchment. At present, the source tracing results are inconclusive. This has implications for the use of certain properties as fingerprints and raises important issues about approaches to sediment source identification.     

LOS ALAMOS FOREST FIRE IMPACT MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A controlled burn at Bandelier National Monument got out of control and burned about 43,000 acres (17,400 hectares) near Los Alamos, New Mexico, in May 2000. The wildfire caused dramatic changes in infiltration capacity and wettability of soils in many of the watersheds above Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and destroyed the duff layer, dramatically reducing the interception and infiltration capacity of the formerly forested watersheds. These sudden changes in basin hydrology necessitated a rapid assessment of hydrology and hydraulics for the canyons running through LANL property to evaluate flood risk, plan emergency flood protection measures, and assess potential sediment and actinide transport. This paper presents the results of hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Los Alamos Canyon following the wildfire. The large scale modeling effort, with over 13,000 cross sections for the hydraulic model (5,000 for Los Alamos Canyon, 8,000 for Guaje Canyon), relied heavily on a geographic information system (GIS) for model input and floodplain delineation. The HEC‐geoRAS model provided good integration between the hydraulic model (HEC‐RAS, Version 3.0.1) and the GIS (ArcView, v. 3.3). These modeling results are being used in drainage master planning efforts at LANL and in the development of sediment transport models using HEC‐6T. Sediment transport modeling results will be used to develop actinide transport models for the canyons at LANL.     

The management implications of fine fuel dynamics in Bushlands Surrounding Hobart, Tasmania

Hobart's bushlands consist of eight distinct vegetation types ranging from open woodland to wet forest. Fine fuel accumulation characteristics are distinctive across this range of vegetation types and mostly seem to conform to the function W_t = W_ss(1−e^−kt)+ l·92(e^−kt), although there is considerable scatter around the lines of best fit in many types.This information contributes to determining the applicability and appropriate frequency of controlled burning as a means of reducing fuels to protect life and property from wildfire. Regular burning of grassy vegetation should ensure relatively safe zones within the urban/bush matrix. It is likely that burning heathy forest types at frequencies that would ensure safe fuel loads would be ecologically detrimental. It would be difficult and futile to use fuel reduction burning in wet forest types as a means of protecting life and property. The fuel accumulation characteristics and the existing ecological knowledge of Allocasuarina verticillata shrubland suggests that fuel reduction burning would be counter-productive in this vegetation type.     

Community wildfire protection planning in the American West: homogeneity within diversity?

As large wildfires have become common across the American West, federal policies such as the Healthy Forests Restoration Act have empowered local communities to plan for their own wildfire protection. Here, we present an analysis of 113 community wildfire protection plans from 10 western states where large fires have recently occurred. These plans contain wide diversity in terms of specific plan elements and dimensions, yet less diversity in the paradigms underlying their fire protection approaches. These patterns held true across both plans constructed solely by local actors as well as those constructed with the help of outside consultant expertise.     

Assessment of forest fire vulnerability zones in Missouri,United States of America

Forest fire is one of the major disasters that distresses the terrestrial environment and causes economic disruptions for people and communities in areas prone to forest fire. Information on forest fire risk zones is therefore essential for effective and sound decision-making in forest management. Forest fire risk assessment is a critical part and the most important step in forest management because it enables us to know where the risk is higher in order to minimize threats to life, property and natural resources. This study used a hazard assessment model to assess forest fire risk in Missouri based on several measurable environmental parameters influencing forest fire risk vulnerability. Using the four ecological zones in Missouri as the basis of analysis, three forest risk zones were identified. These were high forest fire risk zones, moderate forest fire risk zone and low forest fire risk zone. Strategies for the mitigation of the hazard of forest fire in the state were also recommended.     

Bushfire simulators and analysis in Australia: insights into an emerging sociotechnical practice

The present context of escalating environmental risks places increased pressure and importance on our technical ability to predict and mitigate the potential consequences and occurrence of major natural hazards such as bushfire (or ‘wildfire’). Over the past decade, bushfire prediction in Australia, as in many other fire-prone countries, has increasingly come to involve both trained fire behaviour analysts and complex computer-based two-dimensional bushfire simulation models. During this transitional moment in bushfire management, there is a clear need to better understand the ways in which such predictive technologies and practitioners influence how we anticipate, encounter and manage this natural hazard and its effects. In this paper, the authors seek to prepare the ground for studies of the social dimensions of bushfire prediction by investigating how simulators and predictive practitioners have been mobilised and represented in Australia to date. The paper concludes by posing several questions that bushfire practitioners, policy-makers and researchers alike in Australia and elsewhere will need to address as our flammable future emerges.     

Modeling mammal response to fire based on species’ traits

Fire has shaped ecological communities worldwide for millennia, but impacts of fire on individual species are often poorly understood. We performed a meta-analysis to predict which traits, habitat, or study variables and fire characteristics affect how mammal species respond to fire. We modeled effect sizes of measures of population abundance or occupancy as a function of various combinations of these traits and variables with phylogenetic least squares regression. Nine of 115 modeled species (7.83%) returned statistically significant effect sizes, suggesting most mammals are resilient to fire. The top-ranked model predicted a negative impact of fire on species with lower reproductive rates, regardless of fire type (estimate = –0.68), a positive impact of burrowing in prescribed fires (estimate = 1.46) but not wildfires, and a positive impact of average fire return interval for wildfires (estimate = 0.93) but not prescribed fires. If a species’ International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment includes fire as a known or possible threat, the species was predicted to respond negatively to wildfire relative to prescribed fire (estimate = –2.84). These findings provide evidence of experts’ abilities to predict whether fire is a threat to a mammal species and the ability of managers to meet the needs of fire-threatened species through prescribed fire. Where empirical data are lacking, our methods provide a basis for predicting mammal responses to fire and thus can guide conservation actions or interventions in species or communities.