Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present‐day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low‐lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.     

Conservation implications of physiological carry‐over effects in bats recovering from white‐nose syndrome

Although it is well documented that infectious diseases can pose threats to biodiversity, the potential long‐term consequences of pathogen exposure on individual fitness and its effects on population viability have rarely been studied. We tested the hypothesis that pathogen exposure causes physiological carry‐over effects with a pathogen that is uniquely suited to this question because the infection period is specific and time limited. The fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS) in hibernating bats, which either die due to the infection while hibernating or recover following emergence from hibernation. The fungus infects all exposed individuals in an overwintering site simultaneously, and bats that survive infection during hibernation clear the pathogen within a few weeks following emergence. We quantified chronic stress during the active season, when bats are not infected, by measuring cortisol in bat claws. Free‐ranging Myotis lucifugus who survived previous exposure to P. destructans had significantly higher levels of claw cortisol than naïve individuals. Thus, cryptic physiological carry‐over effects of pathogen exposure may persist in asymptomatic, recovered individuals. If these effects result in reduced survival or reproductive success, they could also affect population viability and even act as a third stream in the extinction vortex. For example, significant increases in chronic stress, such as those indicated here, are correlated with reduced reproductive success in a number of species. Future research should directly explore the link between pathogen exposure and the viability of apparently recovered populations to improve understanding of the true impacts of infectious diseases on threatened populations.     

A product analysis-based study on the mechanism of inflammable gas explosion suppression

To study the mechanism of the suppressing effect of Expanded Aluminium (EA) on the premixed gas explosion, premixed methane-air and propane-air gases were undergone explosion reaction in the presence of EA in a self-designed closed pipeline with the overpressures and the compositions, rates and sensitivities of products analyzed. The results showed that the 9.5% methane-air and 5% propane-air explosions produced peak pressures decreased by 79.3% and 65.6%, and residual methane and propane contents increased by 270% and 560% respectively than without EA. In addition, the results revealed that the explosions of propane in the presence of EA produced less methane and carbon oxides contents, but more ethylene and propylene contents. The simulation showed that H, O, and OH are the key factors affecting the rate of products. The product compositions, together with other parameters, suggested that EA decreased temperature, inhibited chain initiation and propagation reaction, but facilitated chain termination reaction by advancing and accelerating the gas phase and wall destruction reaction of radicals, especially collisions and concentration of key free radicals. This new research method based on the analysis of explosion products can be used for in-depth research into gas explosion features and shed light on the suppressing mechanism of EA in flammable gas explosion.     

Determination of 27 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in water: The benefit of isotope dilution

• Isotope dilution method was developed for the determination of 27 PPCPs in water. • The established method was successfully applied to different types of water samples. • The correction effect of corresponding 27 ILSs over 70 d was investigated. • Benefit of isotopic dilution method was illustrated for three examples. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are a unique group of emerging and non-persistent contaminants. In this study, 27 PPCPs in various water samples were extracted by solid phase extraction (SPE), and determined by isotope dilution method using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem triple quadruple mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS). A total of 27 isotopically labeled standards (ILSs) were applied to correct the concentration of PPCPs in spiked ultrapure water, drinking water, river, effluent and influent sewage. The corrected recoveries were 73%–122% with the relative standard deviation (RSD)<16%, except for acetaminophen. The matrix effect for all kinds of water samples was<22% and the method quantitation limits (MQLs) were 0.45–8.6 ng/L. The developed method was successfully applied on environmental water samples. The SPE extracts of spiked ultrapure water, drinking water, river and wastewater effluent were stored for 70 days, and the ILSs-corrected recoveries of 27 PPCPs were obtained to evaluate the correction ability of ILSs in the presence of variety interferences. The recoveries of 27 PPCPs over 70 days were within the scope of 72%–140% with the recovery variation<37% in all cases. The isotope dilution method seems to be of benefit when the extract has to be stored for long time before the instrument analysis.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?

Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.     

某型机车牵引电机传动端轴承低速轻载无飞溅润滑试验研究

主要根据客户要求,在低速(1 km/h)及轻载工况下,测量传动端轴承无飞溅润滑条件下的温升等参数,而进行相关的电机试验,为某型机车牵引电机传动端轴承在低速及轻载工况下,无飞溅润滑提供试验验证及技术支撑。     

Performance evaluation of reverse logistics enterprise – an agent-based simulation approach

Reverse logistics (RL) has been applied in many industries and sectors since its conception. Unlike forward logistics, retracing consumer goods from the point of consumption to the point of inception is not a well-studied process. It involves many uncertainties such as time, quality and quantity of returns. The returned products can be remanufactured, have parts harvested, or be disposed safely. It is important to implement these activities in a cost-effective manner. The aim of this research is to measure the performance of the RL enterprise with the help of an agent-based simulation model. The major entities in the RL network are considered as Agents that can act independently. There are several different agents: collector agent, sorting-cum-reuse agent, remanufacturing agent, recycler agent, supplier agent and distributor agent. The individual performances of the agents are measured and recommendations are given to improve their performance, leading to the enhancement of the total performance of the RL enterprise. The approach is applied to a case study involving cell phone remanufacturing.     

Co-treatment of fruit and vegetable waste in sludge digesters. An analysis of the relationship among bio-methane generation,process stability and digestate phytotoxicity

The co-digestion of a variable amount of fruit and vegetable waste in a waste mixed sludge digester was investigated using a pilot scale apparatus. The organic loading rate (OLR) was increased from 1.46 kg VS/m³ day to 2.8 kg VS/m³ day. The hydraulic retention time was reduced from 14 days to about 10 days. Specific bio-methane production increased from about 90 NL/kg VS to the maximum value of about 430 NL/kg VS when OLR was increased from 1.46 kg VS/m³ day to 2.1 kg VS/m³ day. A higher OLR caused an excessive reduction in the hydraulic retention time, enhancing microorganism wash out. Process stability evaluated by the total volatile fatty acids concentration (mg/l) to the alkalinity buffer capacity (eq. mg/l CaCO₃) ratio (i.e. FOS/TAC) criterion was <0.1 indicating high stability for OLR <2.46 kg VS/m³ day. For higher OLR, FOS/TAC increased rapidly. Residual phytotoxicty of the digestate evaluated by the germination index (GI) (%) was quite constant for OLR < 2.46 kg VS/m³ day, which is lower than the 60% limit, indicating an acceptable toxicity level for crops. For OLR > 2.46 kg VS/m³ day, GI decreased rapidly. This corresponding trend between FOS/TAC and GI was further investigated by the definition of the GI ratio (GIR) parameter. Comparison between GIR and FOS/TAC suggests that GI could be a suitable criterion for evaluating process stability.     

Water saving effect on integrated water resource management

This study proposes an improved integrated water resource management (IWRM), in which water conservation was analyzed for the entire water use process. A multi-objective optimization method was applied to optimize the IWRM, which investigated the reduction of freshwater consumption and the total water supply cost. Customer's preference for saving water and an end use analysis (EUA) was applied in the water conservation analysis. Taking Tianjin as the study area, a reduction in customer's economic pressure (EP) was utilized to evaluate the degree of the customer's preference for saving water. The results revealed that agriculture had a greater preference for saving water than other sectors, where as the public had the weakest motivation for saving water. Improving the transportation method could contribute 62.1% of the total water savings in the agriculture sector. The optimization of the IWRM demonstrated that the local freshwater savings would be 21.5%, and the total cost for water supplies would decrease by 13%. However, a government subsidy of 87.5 million Yuan would be needed. Additionally, by analyzing the change in the amount of water savings affected by water price, the appropriate water price increase range was suggested to be 1.5–1.7 times the original price.