基于WOFOST模型的京津冀地区冬小麦生产潜力评价

研究利用近40年的逐日气候数据,借助WOFOST作物模型模拟分析了京津冀地区冬小麦的生产潜力,通过与实际产量的比较,探讨了提高冬小麦产量的潜力与措施。研究表明：①京津冀地区(除张家口和承德地区)冬小麦光温潜力介于6934~9143kg/hm²之间,从冀中南部向京津地区和冀东北地区逐渐增大,区域平均生产潜力为8037kg/hm²;②冬小麦雨养潜力介于4515~6639kg/hm²之间,由东部和南部随降水量降低依次向西北递减,到冀西北区降至最低,区域平均产量为5771kg/hm²;③影响冬小麦产量的自然因子中,水分是关键限制要素,北部地区也受低温霜冻的影响;④京津冀中部和南部地区的冬小麦生产潜力年际变化波动相对较小,东北部变化波动相对较大;⑤2005-2007年研究区冬小麦的实际单产在2721~7300kg/hm²之间,区域平均5247kg/hm²,相当于潜在产量的50%~80%,其中石家庄地区附近实际产量达到潜在产量的80%以上,天津和沧州地区以及邯郸地区,实际产量与潜在产量的差距较大。     

广州地区秋冬季细颗粒物PM_(2.5)化学组分分析

本文对广州地区2009~2010年秋冬季节大气中PM2.5进行采样,并分析PM2.5样品的水溶性离子、重金属元素、有机碳/元素碳(OC/EC)、有机酸、多环芳烃浓度和粒径分布。通过分析初步掌握了广州地区秋冬季节大气中PM2.5的化学组分和特点:广州地区秋冬季PM2.5呈现城区高于城郊,PM2.5中有机质(OM)是最主要的成分,其次是硫酸根离子、硝酸根离子和铵根;PM2.5中有机碳和元素碳的空间分布特征相似,并受一次源排放影响;PM2.5中铝、锌、铅是含量最高的重金属,且城区重金属浓度高于城郊;PM2.5中17种多环芳烃、苯并a芘(BaP)均为城郊浓度最高。     

黑龙江省冬季异常暖气候事件判定及其与环流指数的关系

利用1961-2018年黑龙江省61个站冬季逐日平均气温资料,以连续5 d日平均气温正距平超过1倍标准差为标准,对黑龙江省冬季异常暖事件进行了判断,并按照0.3个标准差将其分为一级、二级、三级异常暖气候事件。分析表明黑龙江省在58年间冬季共发生35次异常暖气候事件,累计天数270 d。异常暖气候事件发生有较明显的周期性变化,1961-1986年和2009-2018年为低发期、1987-2008年为高发期。71.4%的异常暖事件发生在1986年后,说明异常暖事件的频繁发生对1980年代中后期该省冬季气温显著升高有直接贡献。1961-2018年该省冬季发生一级、二级、三级异常暖气候事件分别为9次、10次、16次。研究月尺度同期环流指数异常与黑龙江省异常暖气候事件的关系,发现北半球极涡面积异常偏小、极涡强度异常偏强、东亚槽强度异常偏弱和北极涛动异常正位相与异常暖气候事件发生有较好的对应关系,为今后黑龙江省冬季异常暖气候事件的预测提供了可靠参考。     

1961-2010年我国冬小麦可种植区变化特征

冬小麦是我国的主要粮食作物之一,在我国粮食生产和粮食安全方面占有重要地位。论文以全国553个气象台站1961-2010年的基本气象资料为基础,根据温度垂直递减规律,将气象站点的最低温度数据处理到海平面水平,而后利用ArcGIS软件,对海平面水平的最低温度数据进行空间插值,得到海平面水平的最低温度空间分布图;再利用全国的DEM数据将插值后的温度数据还原到相应的海拔高度,得到当地的最低温度空间分布图。参考崔读昌提出的我国内地冬小麦种植北界条件,并综合北疆有积雪覆盖区冬小麦安全越冬的判定条件,计算得到全国1961-2010年内不同年代际的冬小麦可种植区概率。利用不同年代际冬小麦可种植区概率分布图,从空间的角度分析了这50 a冬小麦可种植区的扩张状况、可种植概率的变化情况等,为我国的冬小麦种植区的选择提供参考。     

CO2对冬小麦和大豆籽粒成分的影响

采用开顶式气室对冬小春,大豆进行不同ＣＯ２浓度处理,同紫外可见光光度计,蛋白质分析仪,气相色谱仪、ＹＧ－２脂肪提取器和半自动定氮仪等对成熟后冬小麦,大豆籽粒进行成分分析。结果表明,ＣＯ２浓度升高对大豆籽粒粗蛋白、粗脂肪含量均有正效应,随ＣＯ２浓度升高大豆籽粒不饱和酸含量增加,饱和酸减少。ＣＯ２浓度变化对冬小麦籽粒粗蛋白,赖氨酸的影响比较复杂,就蛋白质,赖氨酸２项指标,当大气中ＣＯ２浓度增加１倍,对     

树轮氢同位素气候学:现状与方向

树木年轮硝化纤维素的氢同位素组成被广泛地用于重建过去气候变化。文章介绍了树轮氢同位素气候学在技术、理论以及应用于重建气候变化等方面的进展以及存在的问题,着重阐述了用树木年轮硝化纤维素氢同位素组成来研究东亚季风的进展和今后需要解决的问题。     

Dissolved nutrient dynamics along the southwest coastal waters of India during northeast monsoon: a case study

Dissolved nutrients, Chl-a and primary productivity were measured from seven transects along the coastal waters of the southeastern Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Ten major estuaries were chosen to study the influence of estuarine discharge on the nutrient dynamics in the coastal waters. The mean water discharge of the estuaries in the north (64.8?±?18?×?10⁵?m³?d^?1) was found to be higher than those in the south (30.6?±?21.4?×?10⁵?m³?d^?1), whereas the nutrient concentrations were found to be higher in the estuaries of the south. The results from the offshore waters were discussed in accordance with the depth contour classification, that is, shelf (depth?≤?30?m) and slope waters (depth?≥?30?m). Our results suggest that the estuarine discharge plays a major role in the nutrient distribution in near shore shelf waters, whereas in shelf and slope waters, it was mainly controlled by in situ biological processes. The inorganic form of N to P ratios were found to be higher than Redfield ratio in slope waters when compared with shelf waters, suggesting that PO₄^3? (<0.15?µmol?L^?1) is a limiting nutrient for primary production. The multivariate statistical analysis revealed that the nutrient dynamics in the coastal waters was controlled by both biological and physical processes.     

上海市浦东城区冬季颗粒物数浓度及其谱分布特征

采用APS-3321空气动力学粒径谱仪对上海市浦东城区2012年12月至2013年2月0.5~20μm大气颗粒物浓度及其谱分布进行了实时监测。结果发现,上海市浦东城区冬季大气颗粒物数浓度为360个/cm3,其中0.5~1.0μm颗粒物数为345个/cm3,占总颗粒物的95.7%;1.0~2.5μm颗粒物数为15个/cm3,占颗粒物总数的4.1%;2.5~20.0μm颗粒物数为0.6个/cm3,占颗粒物总数的0.2%。当空气质量为AQI≤50、50AQI≤100、100AQI≤200、AQI200时,颗粒物数浓度分别为77.5、243.2、522.6、868.5个/m3。随着空气污染的加重,小于PM2.5颗粒物数浓度增加显著且对总的颗粒物数浓度的贡献也有所增加,且AQI200时,PM2.5中1.0~2.5μm颗粒物数浓度贡献增幅最大;此外,不同空气质量条件下,颗粒物数浓度的日变化存在一定差异,这对于空气污染防治具有重要意义。     

溪源水库蓄水前后冬春季水体营养盐和浮游植物特征研究

于2007—2008年溪源水库蓄水前,2014—2015年溪源水库蓄水后对溪源宫水源地水体进行采样,分析了冬春季水体的理化指标、浮游植物生物量及群落组成。蓄水前共鉴定出浮游植物6门26属43种,水体水质状况较好,浮游植物细胞密度平均为7.31×10~5cells/L,以硅藻、绿藻门为优势门类,两者占浮游植物总生物量的比例约为54.7%、32.2%,水体呈贫-中营养状态。蓄水后,水体氮、磷营养盐浓度分别约为蓄水前的2.4倍、3倍,浮游植物细胞密度平均为1.42×10~7cells/L,约为蓄水前的20倍,且群落结构发生改变,优势门类为硅藻、蓝藻、绿藻,所占比例分别为40.2%、38.7%、14.4%,蓝藻门比例有显著提高,约为蓄水前的5倍。说明建库蓄水对浮游植物的影响显著。     

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability in the NCAR climate system model

The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent as simulated in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled climate system model (CSM) in its control reference experiment, are presented in this paper. The CSM reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters reasonably well in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. However, while the seasonality in rainfall over the region is simulated well, the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is underestimated to only about 60% of the observed rainfall. The centers of maxima in simulated monsoon rainfall are slightly displaced southward as compared to the climatological patterns. The cross-equatorial flow in simulated surface wind patterns during summer is also stronger than observed with an easterly bias. The transient experiment with a 1% per year compound increase in CO₂ with CSM suggests an annual mean area-averaged surface warming of about 1.73 °C over the region at the time of CO₂ doubling. This warming is more pronounced in winter than during the monsoon season. A net increase in area-averaged monsoon rainfall of about 1.4 mm day^–1, largely due to increased moisture convergence and associated convective activity over the land, is obtained. The enhanced intraseasonal variability in the monsoon rainfall in a warmer atmosphere is confined to the early part of the monsoon season which suggests the possibility of the date of onset of summer monsoon over India becoming more variable in future. The enhanced interannual and intraseasonal variability in the summer monsoon activity over India could also contribute to more intense rainfall spells over the land regions of the Indian subcontinent, thus increasing the probability of extreme rainfall events in a warmer atmosphere. Electronic Publication