全球碳交易市场对中国经济-能源-气候系统的影响评估

国际气候谈判中,美国等发达国家把中国承诺强制减排目标作为其加入全球减排协定的前提,那么如果我国加入全球碳交易市场,将会对我国产生怎样的影响呢?本文基于Ramsey最优增长模型和博弈论思想,构建世界诱导技术变化混合(WITCH)模型,模拟评估全球碳交易市场对我国经济-能源-气候系统的影响,结果表明:12014年(GCM2014情景)和2020年(GCM2020情景)加入全球碳交易市场,到2100年我国GDP比常规情景(BAU情景)下分别减少6.42%和10.22%,说明加入全球碳市场将会对我国经济增长产生较大的负面影响,越早加入负面影响越小;2BAU、GCM2014和GCM2020三种情景下,2100年我国总投资分别达到98.48亿美元、85.59亿美元和85.13亿美元,其中我国能源研发投资预计分别为32.9亿美元、82.5亿美元和96亿美元,说明对我国总投资的影响差异不是很大,但对能源技术研发投资却有快速而显著的促进作用;3BAU、GCM2014和GCM2020三种情景下,2100年我国一次能源消费分为270 EJ、247 EJ和254 EJ,说明全球碳交易市场可以减少我国一次能源的总消费,但总量减少不是太显著,却能显著减少我国的煤炭等化石能源的消费量,因为GCM2014和GCM2020情景下,2100年煤炭消费仅占到我国一次能源消费的10%左右,而BAU情景下煤炭仍占59%;4全球碳交易市场可以比较显著的降低我国能源强度和碳排放强度;5全球碳交易市场的建立能有效降低全球气温,但不能将气温升幅控制在2℃范围以内。因此,我国要结合本国国情和实际,先建立国内碳交易市场,避免在国际压力下盲目承诺加入全球碳交易市场,至少2020年前我国不应该加入全球碳交易市场。     

世界遗产价值分析与旅游开发对策研究——以武陵源自然遗产为例

武陵源自然遗产具有科考、生态、教育、文化、旅游等多重价值,是我国较早列入<世界遗产名录>的世界遗产之一.深入剖析武陵源的遗产价值,有助于纠正人们对自然遗产的认识偏差,从而重视自然遗产的保护,以保护遗产为前提进行遗产旅游的深度开发,重塑武陵源自然遗产的旅游核心竞争力.     

Hearing Protectors: Topicality and Research Needs

Occupational noise specialists do not generally recommend hearing protection devices (HPDs) as a preferred solution to noise risk prevention. Nevertheless, these devices are widely used and are in fact often necessary. Selection of an HPD should take into account comfort and the capacity for perceiving external signals, when they are worn. Current European regulations require that HPD attenuation be considered, when comparing noise exposure to limit values. However, HPD attenuation is effectively unknown under real-world conditions. Some methods are designed to give approximate attenuation values and these provide results within a wide statistical range. Field measurement methods and current standards have been developed to deal with this situation. The specific characteristic of impulse noise requires establishment of dedicated criteria and tools for HPD selection and testing. This paper introduces a number of avenues for research, which could be of assistance in improving HPD selection, qualification and design.     

Sustainable Development: The Need for a New Paradigm

At present, the term sustainable development is misleading because we actually live in a markedly unsustainable world and conditions will become even more unsustainable in the 21st century. Indeed, the 21st century will be the defining period in man's occupation of this planet. Either we take very positive steps to ameliorate our environmental excesses now or we face the prospect of major environmental catastrophes in the future. It is a fact that advanced civilizations have collapsed twice within the last 5000 years in Europe and we must face up to the fact that a third collapse, this time on a global scale, is not beyond the realms of possibility. It is therefore up to us to begin using our considerable ingenuity to prepare for the future in a more rational manner than is presently the case. This article demonstrates clearly the dilemma that we now face.     

从汶川地震看我国世界遗产地的旅游危机管理——以青城山—都江堰为例

一场突如其来的汶川大地震考验了中国的经济,旅游业首当其冲,损失惨重。造成如此巨大损失,地震的影响固然不少,但旅游系统缺少一整套有效的危机管理机制,也是一个重要的原因。文章分析了汶川地震对四川旅游业的影响,以青城山-都江堰为例,提出了世界遗产地旅游危机管理的必要性以及具体的危机管理模式。     

大足石刻世界遗产地的可持续发展研究

简要介绍了大足石刻的自身概况及地理条件、地质环境和发展旅游的特色优势,总结归纳了大足石刻的艺术特征.从自然因素和人文因素两方面分析了大足石刻世界遗产地存在的问题,重点提出了促进大足石刻世界遗产地可持续发展的相关对策,包括管理体制、保护法规、旅游发展等方面的对策.     

环境影响的IPAT模型再认识

伴随工业文明的发展,探究日益恶化环境问题的社会根源成为学术界激烈争论的议题,从人口规模与技术水平的单因素争论拓展到文化背景、政府类型和消费观念等多因素论的讨论,在横向上从宏观社会到微观个体层次的解释,最终形成经典的环境影响的IPAT模型,试图解释环境问题产生的复杂社会动力机制。本文通过国内外学者对IPAT模型的实证研究以及理论探讨梳理发现:模型中的因变量环境影响I以及自变量人口数量P、富裕程度A和技术水平T的内涵、完备性以及分析单位的适用性等方面备受争议。为了克服变量的局限,首先通过分解IPAT模型中T变量,进一步拓展模型中可能被忽略的对环境影响的多重因素;同时为了避免模型中不同因素对环境影响的同比例线性变化的局限性,将IPAT模型转化为非线性的STIRPAT随机模型,使各变量值随观察值的变化而变化;其次为了克服研究中忽视个体对环境影响差异性的不足,以"双重转换"理论为基础分析少数特权群体对环境造成不成比例的影响;最后面对分析单位以及分析情景的差异性与复杂性,基于"世界体系论"视角突破特定区域时空以国家间互动关系为分析单位对全球环境退化展开讨论。研究表明,IPAT模型的发展演变表明环境保护与经济发展关系逐渐从悲观的"零和"冲突走向协调发展的路径,有利于探索更加有效的举措应对全球复杂而严峻的环境问题,同时对新常态下中国推进生态文明建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

我国世界自然遗产地旅游业环境经济核算思路

目前,各级地方政府及旅游经营者对中国世界自然遗产地旅游价值的开发力度大,自然遗产地旅游经济发展异常繁荣,同时也带来了自然遗产地环境退化、资源破坏的严重后果。而用来衡量地区经济发展状况的传统旅游业经济核算结果仅体现旅游经济的增长与否及尺度,而忽略了旅游经济增长同时的环境、资源损耗。现借用SEEA 2000框架,结合中国国情,提出中国世界自然遗产地环境经济核算的框架,经过重新整合,突出优质而独具特色的自然环境部分的环境资产类在自然遗产地旅游业中的生产性资产地位,将原SEEA 2000中拆分核算的5大部分、10大步骤整合为4大部分、9大步骤,并对其当前可操作性进行了客观分析。并指出,虽然目前详尽执行世界自然遗产地环境经济核算有一定难度,但理清核算思路具有现实指导意义。     

世界自然遗产─武陵源

武陵源，位于湖南省西北部张家界市与慈利县、桑植县交界处，方圆３６９ｋｍ~２，由张家界、天子山、索溪峪、杨家界、茅岩河、九天洞、天门山等景区组成。１９８２年，张家界被命名为我国第一个国家森林公园。１９９２年，武陵源（主要包括张家界、天子山、索溪峪）被联合国教科文组织作为世界著名的旅游胜地列入世界自然遗产名录。     

Deep Geological CO2 Storage: Principles Reviewed, and Prospecting for Bio-energy Disposal Sites

The principles of hydrocarbon exploration and production provide well-established and tested principles and technologies to investigate storage of fluids in the subsurface. CO₂ can be stored in the subsurface using settings of: (A) thick permeable coal seams; (B) depleted oil and gas fields; (C) saline aquifers of regional extent, with an overlying seal. The North Sea Sleipner project shows that CO₂ can be injected into the pore space of deep geological aquifers deeper than 800 m at 1 Mt/yr, using established technology. Suitable sediment sequences of saline aquifers exist in all hydrocarbon-producing areas, are volumetrically much larger than exploited oil and gas fields, and hold the potential to easily store all worldwide CO₂ emissions until 2050. Geological principles are established to assess entire continents for candidate sites of CO₂ storage. This shows that opportunity may be widespread, but needs more specific local investigations. Onshore sub-Saharan Africa is considered the most problematic region – but even here there are potentially viable sediment sequences. No demonstration projects currently exist for CO₂ capture and storage using small-scale onshore facilities. A simple estimate, assuming CO₂ value of $20 per ton, suggests that single boreholes onshore may be viable over 20 years with supply rates of 100,000 ton CO₂ per year. In principle, atmospheric CO₂ could be captured by cultivated biomass, and co-fired in existing power stations. Or energy crops could be grown, CO₂ to be used, and stored deep below ground, in a country distant from an original fossil-fuel CO₂ emission site.